December 2017 Long Range Disco

[high risk]

8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

New NCEP product?

        No, it's been on that MAG site for a while now.     It's a better way of looking at snow totals instead of just slapping a 10:1 ratio on model snow water equivalent.   It has been added to Tropical Tidbits too.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Civil War.

Business would be booming for you. 

[Interstate]

I-95 Heat Island???

[Amped]

That is an insane closed H7 clipper that tracks over the SE part of the area Saturday night. Doubt it verifies but that would be awesome rates.

[Interstate]

So correct me if I am wrong but the Euro likes 12-13

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Long range, This pattern always retrogrades, 00z GFS has strong +NAO by days 13-14, will likely be +EPO too. 

[showmethesnow]

Think the GFS suite was close to the best, if not the best, of the season so far. The op splits the Fri-Sun period into 2 storms. The first is the late Friday into Sat coastal that looks to have little to no interaction with the northern stream and favors the bay eastward for the heavier precip. The second is a surface low and associated strong upper level energy that digs deep into Tenn/Kentucky then rotates through the southern portions of our region. This then looks to begin intensification as it pulls OTS. Snowfall totals for the first part show 1-2 inches the cities and west with 2 inches increasing to 10 or so inches towards the shore. Total snowfall for the whole period (Fri-Sun) is very roughly 2-4 cities and west and 4 inches quickly increasing to 6+ and close to a foot around the shore. The totals through the whole 16 day period are very nice with 6-12 showing just to the N and west of the cities. Had to laugh though. The DC snow hole holds on strong.  

This evolution is probably the one I favor the most with the current setup for our snow chances in our region. A coastal left to intensify on its own with a secondary potent level upper energy/ surface low follow up from the SW/W a day and a half later. Otherwise with interaction and/or phasing with the coastal and the northern stream we are probably left out in the cold as those to the north cash in through this period and we are left with pity flakes.

Think that with the coastal as depicted now and knowing the tendencies of the GFS on how it handles this setup I would not be surprised to see a slight intensification and adjustment westward with this feature. As far as the secondary, as depicted now it wouldn't take much for that to be a decent event for our region. A little more dig and a little tweaking to the trough and who knows....

As far as the ensembles, not going to dive deep into them but looking over the means and how the trough reacts I think they actually favor a solution similar to what the op shows. But i will leave that to others to verify. The overall run of the ensembles can't be beat. I see several very decent opportunities showing up on them. Overall snowfall through the cities has increased from both the 12z and 18z as well. We are now seeing 3 1/2 - 4 inches there and the overall the snowfall profile looks better as well in regards to seeing snow in the cities.

[showmethesnow]

Euro is coming in much slower as well as closer with the coastal and much more consolidated vs the strung out feature that the 12Z showed. We are now seeing decent precip reaching a good portion of the eastern shore. Euro weakens the surface low/upper level energy diving into the Midwest driving it far to the south where it looks to initiate development of a low on the trough of low pressure left in the wake of the first storm. This storm looks to be off of OBX but quite a ways OTS. Pretty much an uninspiring run on results as our region sees trace amounts while others to our west and south do much better, eastern shore does cash in though. Not going to get upset about it because I do see some possibilities on the run.  

As far as the EPS we do see some changes with the trough's look and evolution through the Fri-Sat period. Not necessarily bad, nor good, just different. Think we may possibly be seeing the ensembles keying on different energy or having timing issues for that time period. Not going to over think it at this point though. PNA holds strong through the period as well as the higher heights up top. We see a move to raise heights to our south through the gulf states at the end of the run. Overall decent run where we have decent opportunities until the end of the run where the east coast trough pulls northward somewhat. Even then we would possibly have opportunities but of the lower odds variety.

Really didn't know what to expect on the snowfall maps for the Fri-Sun period. But was pleasantly surprised to see a strong coastal signature through that period. The means are showing the heaviest band of snow through SE VA up through the central portion of the eastern shore (3.5-4) inches. The 2 inch line runs roughly 15 miles or so west of the cities with the cities riding the 2.5 inch line. Control is a nice hit for the eastern shore with 6-12 for the whole of the eastern shore with the cities clocking in with 4-5 inches. Not going to count them but over half of the members now have a coastal signature with snowfall. They mostly favor the heaviest band of snow anywhere from just east of the cities to the eastern shore. Many/most show the Balt/DC corridor in the roughly 4-6 range with several that show totals of roughly 10 inches or so. Overall this was a huge jump from prior runs. Snowfall totals for the whole 15 day period overall have shown little change from the 12z but now the profile is more in line with a coastal thrown into the mix.

 

[CAPE]

0z EPS snow mean through the upcoming weekend. Pretty solid support for a light to moderate event among the individual members.

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

0z EPS snow mean through the upcoming weekend. Pretty solid support for a light to moderate event among the individual members.

Thanks.  From what I can tell off the ensemble maps, it looks like the ensembles like something around days 8-9. Looks like something goes through VA then bombs off the coast. My guess is that the mean jumps after that. Am I correct?  Thanks again. 

[PDIII]

I guess that's that...

Usually does snow til around December 20 around here anyway... so this would have just been a bonus.

 

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks.  From what I can tell off the ensemble maps, it looks like the ensembles like something around days 8-9. Looks like something goes through VA then bombs off the coast. My guess is that the mean jumps after that. Am I correct?  Thanks again. 

Not Cape but we see a jump roughly day 10 through 12. Not much there for 8-9.

[showmethesnow]

And the 06Z shows how we can fail for the Fri-Sun period though it does kick out trace to roughly inch or so amounts through the region.

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Not Cape but we see a jump roughly day 10 through 12. Not much there for 8-9.

Yeah there isn't a ton of consensus as far as timing and track of possible storm(s), but days 9-12 looks like it could be pretty active. The mean does tick up over that period. Jumps up more beyond that, but way  too far out to bother with any analysis.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah there isn't a ton of consensus as far as timing and track of possible storm(s), but days 9-12 looks like it could be pretty active. The mean does tick up over that period. Jumps up more beyond that, but way  too far out to bother with any analysis.

Though I will keep an eye on future possibilities I do like to focus on the one that is front of us. This whole period has me in sensory overload though. Been quite some time since there has been so much to track. 

[showmethesnow]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks.  From what I can tell off the ensemble maps, it looks like the ensembles like something around days 8-9. Looks like something goes through VA then bombs off the coast. My guess is that the mean jumps after that. Am I correct?  Thanks again. 

 

14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not Cape but we see a jump roughly day 10 through 12. Not much there for 8-9.

 

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah there isn't a ton of consensus as far as timing and track of possible storm(s), but days 9-12 looks like it could be pretty active. The mean does tick up over that period. Jumps up more beyond that, but way  too far out to bother with any analysis.

Sorry Mitch & Cape. Pulled up the GEFS by mistake.  So we all now know that the GEFS likes the day 10-12 period coming up.

[showmethesnow]

Nice uptick and moving west of the snowfall means from the 00Z to the 06Z GEFS runs for the Fri-Sun period..

 

00Z Fri-Sun snowfall means.

06Z Fri-Sun snowfall means.

 

 

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Nice uptick and moving west of the snowfall means from the 00Z to the 06Z GEFS runs for the Fri-Sun period..

 

00Z Fri-Sun snowfall means.

06Z Fri-Sun snowfall means.

 

 

Still 6z op gives pause.   I would’ve thought the operons would start honing in on a final solution 

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Still 6z op gives pause.   I would’ve thought the operons would start honing in on a final solution 

With the setup we are seeing now, with so many moving parts, timing issues etc... I think it makes it more difficult for ops then a simpler setup. The higher resolution of the ops has a tendency to overreact to small changes and adjustments, of which we will see plenty of in the coming days vs the Ensembles that present a more steady state look due to their lower resolution. I myself will be keying on the ensembles more so then the ops in the the next two days or so before I start placing much more weight on the ops.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

With the setup we are seeing now, with so many moving parts, timing issues etc... I think it makes it more difficult for ops then a simpler setup. The higher resolution of the ops has a tendency to overreact to small changes and adjustments, of which we will see plenty of in the coming days vs the Ensembles that present a more steady state look due to their lower resolution. I myself will be keying on the ensembles more so then the ops in the the next two days or so before I start placing much more weight on the ops.

You’re right I put way too much mental energy on the op Inside five days when it should be inside three days in a complicated set up

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps day 10-12 Looks uber cold on the means. 

I count 22/50 eps members that give 2" or more of snow for DC/ Balt  thru Sunday night. Real nice signal . I'm stoked for the weekend and the whole general pattern ..it really doesn't get much more exciting then current guidance for Dec.

Yeah, everything is looking good up to this point and I am getting someone stocked myself but...

I know you know this, so this is more for the newcomers to tracking. The current setup is pretty complex and while it presents a opportunity for decent snow through the region for Fri-Sun it wouldn't take much in the way of changes to screw the whole thing up giving us a big fat fail. I have seen time and time again over the years where what looked to be a sure thing suddenly flipped in a matter of a run or two. In other words. Bet fail in these type of situations and over the long haul you can rack in a lot of money as Fail is the nature of the game in the Mid-Atlantic region.

[Ralph Wiggum]

NAVGEM continues to bounce around with being the closest model to the coast at the surface irt Friday. Said it before......not to be used verbatim but with its progressive and general S and E bias at this range the closer to the coast solutions do raise an eyebrow.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAVGEM continues to bounce around with being the closest model to the coast at the surface irt Friday. Said it before......not to be used verbatim but with its progressive and general S and E bias at this range the closer to the coast solutions do raise an eyebrow.

Never look at it. Is it still as bad as it used to be or have we seen improvements with it?

[Ralph Wiggum]

6z NAVGEM

[Ralph Wiggum]

Never look at it. Is it still as bad as it used to be or have we seen improvements with it?

Just like the CRAS people mock, if these pieces of guidance are used for clues based on their known biases they can be useful in determining potential outcomes. I would never trust either verbatim. They are good for discussion however.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Never look at it. Is it still as bad as it used to be or have we seen improvements with it?
 

Just like the CRAS people mock, if these pieces of guidance are used for clues based on their known biases they can be useful in determining potential outcomes. I would never trust either verbatim. They are good for discussion however.

I agree wholeheartedly with everything about your statement. 

[mappy]

1 hour ago, PDIII said:

I guess that's that...

Usually does snow til around December 20 around here anyway... so this would have just been a bonus.

 

yup, we should def throw in the towel today, on an event 4-5 days away. 

[H2O]

how the hell did i miss that post?

[mappy]

Just now, H2O said:

how the hell did i miss that post?

too busy sending a picture of a new dresser in an email, i guess. 

[H2O]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

too busy sending a picture of a new dresser in an email, i guess. 

What dummy does that?  That person is lame.