BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll complain about it being very dry post d8. One of the worst runs recently with mean precip after the cold settles in. We all have different expectations for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Might as well be 60 on Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll complain about it being very dry post d8. One of the worst runs recently with mean precip after the cold settles in. Yeah I know it's not ideal. But whatever we are lucky enough to get might be frozen. If we go the whole month without seeing flakes then I am headed to the Panic Room...for an extended stay. And damn proud to do so. Or if ORF gets measurable before we do. Another catalyst for panic and despair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Win or lose in the end, this is at least the first Sunday night in about 22 months that I know I'll be able to distract myself at work all week with watching the model runs for snow at less than D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll complain about it being very dry post d8. One of the worst runs recently with mean precip after the cold settles in. Maybe the snow oppurtunities increase mid to late month as indications are the MJO may be in a better position. Anything is better than last year at this point, but I still want a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 22 minutes ago, frd said: Maybe the snow oppurtunities increase mid to late month as indications are the MJO may be in a better position. Anything is better than last year at this point, but I still want a lot of snow. I'm not greedy and I'm patient. Looking forward to getting on the board as soon as possible. Just going for a walk with dog while snow is falling and not sticking would satisfy me to an extent. Don't think we cruise through the next 2 weeks without seeing snow at least fall. Gotta get beyond Wed before we have a chance as seeing flakes fly. Hopefully we're tracking first flakes in the med range shortly. Fri has a chance to morph into something. We're still a few days away from having a clear picture as to how things evolve with that feature. Could break our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Gfs continues to show recurving typhoons. HM posted on Twitter last week that recurving typhoons will likely cause bitter arctic outbreak(s). Personally, I just want a few inches this month while bitter air is around. I think things will start getting much more interesting after Christmas and into next month. Mainly because we do better in January with Ninas. That said, I'm sticking with my 12/17-12/21 period for first substantial snowfall, but will gladly bust and give the honors to C.A.P.E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 45 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Win or lose in the end, this is at least the first Sunday night in about 22 months that I know I'll be able to distract myself at work all week with watching the model runs for snow at less than D10. This. So this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 31 minutes ago, nj2va said: This. So this. Yeah. You can add me as your +1 I think tonight or tomorrow mornings runs bring this back a bit closer. Even if not still liking where we are headed. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 If the the Friday thing continues to look slightly better over the next 48 hrs and then by tue runs we are looking at a decent event.....I will be convinced this is '13/14 all over again. The end of the GEFS run reminds me a bit of the 13/14 look at H5 in LR...The modeled cold gets colder and storms cant miss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I'm not a meteorologist, and far from it, but EVERY year the discussion about off-runs comes up and EVERY year a meteorologist chimes in to let everyone know that there is NO difference in the data input for 6/18z runs. They are just as important as 00/12z runs. In fact in some cases there is more data inputted into the off-runs. Anyway, there are a lot of shortwaves embedded in the fast flow, but I really like how deep the vort is digging so while my confidence is low I am liking the chances with this one for at least a minor event. And just for kicks, the 12-14th time frame is starting to catch my eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 52 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I'm not a meteorologist, and far from it, but EVERY year the discussion about off-runs comes up and EVERY year a meteorologist chimes in to let everyone know that there is NO difference in the data input for 6/18z runs. They are just as important as 00/12z runs. In fact in some cases there is more data inputted into the off-runs. Anyway, there are a lot of shortwaves embedded in the fast flow, but I really like how deep the vort is digging so while my confidence is low I am liking the chances with this one for at least a minor event. And just for kicks, the 12-14th time frame is starting to catch my eye. I'm interested in hearing Dtkwxusaf's take! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I'm interested in hearing wxusaf's take! Dtk is the resident NWP expert. He (and of others) have stated numerous times that the gfs verification scores don't vary much across the 4 runs. I've seen the off hour runs be the first to pick up an accurate trend and I've also seen them do crazy things. But the 0z and 12z also do crazy things. The thing about the off hour runs that makes it hard to have a lot of confidence in is that the other globals don't run so there's nothing to compare it to. If the euro and cmc ran at 6 and 18z it would be pretty awesome. You could binge watch weather models 24 hours a day. Sleep and food would be optional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Dtk is the resident NWP expert. He (and of others) have stated numerous times that the gfs verification scores don't vary much across the 4 runs. I've seen the off hour runs be the first to pick up an accurate trend and I've also seen them do crazy things. But the 0z and 12z also do crazy things. The thing about the off hour runs that makes it hard to have a lot of confidence in is that the other globals don't run so there's nothing to compare it to. If the euro and cmc ran at 6 and 18z it would be pretty awesome. You could binge watch weather models 24 hours a day. Sleep and food would be optional. That's who I was thinking! I always think of the 0z/12z runs having the most recent rawinsonde ingestion, but nowadays satellites practically tell all in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: All I know is that the solution for Friday is not set in stone until the SREFs have spoken. Those may never get up to par imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 One thing about the dry commentary...models won’t pick up on sw’s that can rotate through and produce light snow at any appreciable range. So yeah, the pattern can be overall dry, but if it’s cold you may get a chance or two at a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 All flow looks nearly identical to the 18z run through hr78 (maybe a slightly higher western ridge?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Friday looks pretty good so far on the GFS...not sure about all levels but surface just above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, LP08 said: Friday looks pretty good so far on the GFS...not sure about all levels but surface just above freezing How far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: How far out? 117 on instant weather....still scoots east and the heaviest precip stays east of the bay...similar to 18z in that regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: 117 on instant weather....still scoots east and the heaviest precip stays east of the bay...similar to 18z in that regard Some of the darker green qpf looks closer to the metros around that time! Good thinking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 H5 is south of 18z...almost gets under us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 I don't know if I should be sharing that pivotal image from elsewhere or not not having my own subscription... eta: go stalk acc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 who broke the CMC model? it used to show us a blizzard every run no matter what the pattern was...till this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ji said: who broke the CMC model? it used to show us a blizzard every run no matter what the pattern was...till this year. NASA and their hi-tech satellites eta: Threat is legit if CMC wiffs alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 For now, we'll have to this old-school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 New NCEP product? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 GFS through 324. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, supernovasky said: GFS through 324. At least a little something for everyone! eta: That type of scenario happens maybe once every 1 or 2 decades this time of year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Oh the clipper...yes indeed...very nice....Saturday night special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.