Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Happy hour returns on the GFS, especially for SE areas. You could see the shift by hour 72 that flow along the coast was backing a little more and the vort was digging deeper. Close to a best case sceario run because the ns wasnt screwing things up as much and leaving us dynamic no man's land. 18z depiction was almost entirely southern stream action. Interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Happy hour returns on the GFS, especially for SE areas. I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS is agonizing...again. But a step in the right direction. Better than 12z, not as good as 6z Two frames of blue vs. 1 on 6z sir..I am taking that as a win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: You could see the shift by hour 72 that flow along the coast was backing a little more and the vort was digging deeper. Close to a best case sceario run because the ns wasnt screwing things up as much and leaving us dynamic no man's land. 18z depiction was almost entirely southern stream action. Interesting.... Think we have any chance of a phase per 12z eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Two frames of blue vs. 1 on 6z sir..I am taking that as a win 0z for the win. We all know that the eastern shore is not going to be the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, Interstate said: 0z for the win. We all know that the eastern shore is not going to be the jackpot 48 hrs from now imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Think we have any chance of a phase per 12z eps? Somebody does but we're likely too far south for that. Imho- best case scenario would be all southern stream wirh limited ns interaction. If the ns low digs into the TN valley then it gets much better for us but I haven't seen anything show that lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: 0z for the win. We all know that the eastern shore is not going to be the jackpot Yes we all know this. It never happens. Meteorologically impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yes we all know this. It never happens. Meteorologically impossible. Except when it does - just last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, B-Paq said: Except when it does - just last winter Right on the beach, no less. I was in Rehoboth for that 10" cold powder bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Right on the beach, no less. I was in Rehoboth for that 10" cold powder bomb. That was a great snow day - super cold, fell during the daylight hours. We got about 6 here in Easton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Somebody does but we're likely too far south for that. Imho- best case scenario would be all southern stream wirh limited ns interaction. If the ns low digs into the TN valley then it gets much better for us but I haven't seen anything show that lately. Doesn't the euro op show that without as much ss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 17 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Doesn't the euro op show that without as much ss? Euro digs the vort deep but slp is up around the lakes and never makes it south of IN. Pos tilt and keeps the southern wave pretty far east. I suppose if the vort digs deep and goes negative it could enhance development into a good storm. That's a tall order but still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Wonder what the GEFS will have in terms of the Friday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Btr, take a look at these two panels. Both the gfs and euro have the ns low up around lake superior at the same point in time. Any phase is going to happen way north of us. The southern wave could get fairly strong if the approaching trough goes neg or neutral. Anyone looking for a big event would want to watch that feature and actually root for the NS low to not be a player at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 That 70 degree day on the 18th is going to mess with the norms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 And the 18Z gfs goes wonky again post day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: And the 18Z gfs goes wonky again post day 10. I think it just goes to show how unstable a model the GFS OP is. The GEFS, Euro OP and EPS have been much more stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 If you squint the 18z GEFS is farther SE with the precip for Friday 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro digs the vort deep but slp is up around the lakes and never makes it south of IN. Pos tilt and keeps the southern wave pretty far east. I suppose if the vort digs deep and goes negative it could enhance development into a good storm. That's a tall order but still possible. Yep, multiple options with equivalent possibilities! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, Rtd208 said: I think it just goes to show how unstable a model the GFS OP is. The GEFS, Euro OP and EPS have been much more stable. This is why I pay very little attention to the off runs of the GFS (06z, 18z). The off runs have improved drastically from just a few years ago but IMO they still have some issues. I know that they supposedly have better verification scores then the 12z and 00Z but it seems to me they are the runs that are more likely to go off the rails. Of course my opinion may be colored by many years of dealing with them when they were horrible so maybe I am just being hypercritical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I say give it another 24-36 hours then you can probably be fairly confident on what will happen late week/next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I still like our chances of snow on Friday, the question is, how much snow. Probably won'y be a whole lot, but anything is better than last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: This is why I pay very little attention to the off runs of the GFS (06z, 18z). The off runs have improved drastically from just a few years ago but IMO they still have some issues. I know that they supposedly have better verification scores then the 12z and 00Z but it seems to me they are the runs that are more likely to go off the rails. Of course my opinion may be colored by many years of dealing with them when they were horrible so maybe I am just being hypercritical. Depending who you talk to some will say there is no difference between the main and off hour runs but I am not so sure. I agree with you that we usually see wonky stuff on the off hour runs. The 18z just tends to be the wonkiest of the two for some reason, 06z usually not as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I think it just goes to show how unstable a model the GFS OP is. The GEFS, Euro OP and EPS have been much more stable. The general theme of trough east ridge west continues on GEFS. With slight variations that will likely have big implications...I do notice a general move toward pattern relaxation ever so slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I will obviously usually do better then you guys down here since I am up in the NYC metro region but the discussions have been so good in here so far I just felt the need to get involved. Nice job guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Both the eps and gefs continue to get colder in the D10+. I know we are focused on snow but there looks to be a potent shot of arctic air coming through the plains around D10 toward the east coast. Just give us 1-2" on the ground when that shot comes through. The signal is certainly growing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Nothing to dislike about the GEFS through 384. That theme provides continued opportunities some we will cash in on and some we won't. It's serviceable headed into the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2017 Author Share Posted December 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Nothing to dislike about the GEFS through 384. That theme provides continued opportunities some we will cash in on and some we won't. It's serviceable headed into the holidays. I'll complain about it being very dry post d8. One of the worst runs recently with mean precip after the cold settles in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Nothing to dislike about the GEFS through 384. That theme provides continued opportunities some we will cash in on and some we won't. It's serviceable headed into the holidays. I like this post. Take it in a positive form and roll with it. The thermals in the long range look promising. We can figure out precip and such as it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.