Rtd208 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I think the best way to continue sum things up is that there is alot of potential in the upcoming pattern to produce. The late week/weekend snow potential is still not off the table yet by any means and is worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Decent overrunning event in fantasy land on the euro. Something like that actually makes a lot of sense. Saved the 12z suite of runs, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Enthused to see the EPS I am..let’s pray it spreads good cheer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Enthused to see the EPS I am..let’s pray it spreads good cheer Snow mean looks really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Enthused to see the EPS I am..let’s pray it spreads good cheerI was about to say... I was surprised it didn't go down. The mean is propped up by a couple of outliers, but still very interesting. I'd share with all but I'm on mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 A Canaan trip may be in the not too distant future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just got a chance to look over the ensembles. 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Snow mean looks really nice. Just finishing up looking over the EPS and I like the improvements on what I see for Friday through the weekend. Thought the GEFS was a wash for the most part though. Some positives, some negatives, all minor though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks great. Remember last year...it looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: What does it look like just for after next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 For the time period of next Friday through Sunday the EPS went from 8 events of 2+ inches for the DC/Balt corridor on the 00Z to now having 13 on the 12z. 5 of which are 6+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 For the time period of next Friday through Sunday the EPS went from 8 events of 2+ inches for the DC/Balt corridor on the 00Z to now having 13 on the 12z. 5 of which are 6+ inches.That's REALLY good.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: What does it look like just for after next weekend? 1 1/2 inches for the DC/Balt corridor through Sunday night. 2 inches sneaking into just north of Balt and a little jackpot of 2 inches just NE of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 12Z(Top) vs 0Z(Bottom) Euro SLP Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 A tick NW on the EPS for Fri.... 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Porsche said: 12Z(Top) vs 0Z(Bottom) Euro SLP Mean Wow thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: 1 1/2 inches for the DC/Balt corridor through Sunday night. 2 inches sneaking into just north of Balt and a little jackpot of 2 inches just NE of DC. How do the members looks? Consensus at all ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Love seeing the EPS being rock steady with that +PNA through the period and beyond, run after run after run. Not to mention the higher heights over top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 That 12z eps look implies phasing possibilities are not entirely off the table. That wouldn't be the most likely scenario right now, but watch the clipper action closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That 12z eps look implies phasing possibilities are not entirely off the table. That wouldn't be the most likely scenario right now, but watch the clipper action closely. I thought about that. But then I thought that a phase if it happened would help areas to our north...unless the clipper could realy dig. To TN valley perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: How do the members looks? Consensus at all ? Haven't looked at each members evolution but by looking at the snowfall profile of each it looks as if many are moving towards the idea of a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Haven't looked at each members evolution but by looking at the snowfall profile of each it looks as if many are moving towards the idea of a coastal. Any dual-jet interactions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 12 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That 12z eps look implies phasing possibilities are not entirely off the table. That wouldn't be the most likely scenario right now, but watch the clipper action closely. When I now see the models showing low pressure anomalies extending from the lakes LP to coastal LP it suggests to me that they may see the possibility and/or are maybe moving towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: When I now see the models showing low pressure anomalies extending from the lakes LP to coastal LP it suggests to me that they may see the possibility and/or are maybe moving towards it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I see it but can also see why it doesn’t slow down much...GL looks less than perfect in the NAO region I believe...not sure if that matter but I remember someone saying the -NAO helps slow things down and NE doesn’t need it as bad as we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I see it but can also see why it doesn’t slow down much...GL looks less than perfect in the NAO region I believe...not sure if that matter but I remember someone saying the -NAO helps slow things down and NE doesn’t need it as bad as we do. Seeing Greenland like that with such a threat is almost never good. Being in the 5-day window is great seeing the waves though! What I will be watching for is the differences in trends in the speeds of the two systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Any dual-jet interactions? Polar jet is dropping down into the tropical in the lower Mississippi valley at day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 GFS is agonizing...again. But a step in the right direction. Better than 12z, not as good as 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 The Low is weaker than the last three runs initially, but has the best looking 850s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 46 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I see it but can also see why it doesn’t slow down much...GL looks less than perfect in the NAO region I believe...not sure if that matter but I remember someone saying the -NAO helps slow things down and NE doesn’t need it as bad as we do. There are pretty decent +H5 anomalies over GL at that time. In general, a fairly strong west based -NAO is beneficial for our region, as it tends to keep the storm track to our south. We cant always expect to see that look though, so "less than perfect" is often what we get. If you look at h5 rather then the surface, the biggest issue with that hr 144 panel are the +heights in the 50-50 region, which are stronger than in the NAO domain. We really want the opposite there- lower heights. If you look at the EPS h5 panels at days 11-12, you will see a much better look, with a solid ridge over GL, and lower heights underneath. This is more typical of the h5 look we want- one that can help to keep the storm track further south, and slow things a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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