BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs and Canadian were sweet runs if you enjoy futility. Since I'm still here, apparently I must. Lol Yeah I wouldn’t classify either as inspiring. Especially late in the run. I have to remember we can still fail in spectacular fashion without much effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs and Canadian were sweet runs if you enjoy futility. Since I'm still here, apparently I must. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Which is why our average annual snowfall in the cities is atrocious and everyone else is always higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Any word on the GEFS from those who can see the products? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Any word on the GEFS from those who can see the products? Looks like the op through d9. Slight shift se with the follow wave and NS low scoots north. Looks good in fantasyland as usual but nothing exciting through next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Which is why our average annual snowfall in the cities is atrocious ...especially for early-mid December! Heck, at this point to me, it would be nice to at least get some winter in the air this month. It's exciting to just finally have a December that has some semblance of fun tracking, been quite a few years. If we score a couple or so inches between now and Christmas, great (that's about average in the metro area for the month?). Anything more...all the better of course! But not expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Ns low was much weaker this run so not as much tug to back flow/heights. I'm not a fan of the different ways the ns and gulf wave interact and what it means at the surface. Seems like the most likely way for the wave to back into our region is to root for a stronger ns low but a stronger low does damage with temps. If I lived further from the cities I would prob be good with that but I'm not feeling it. The ultimate solution (but probably least likely) is to have no northern stream low at all and just hope the trough is sharp enough to back flow into our yards. A good backup plan is to forget about the wave and just hope for the big dig with the NS. That's a tall order in early Dec. Seems to be another one of those setups that is stacked against. Yeah, a cursory glance at the past 4 cycles, it appears the NS low doesn't dig down nearly as much...it sort of is more recessed back into the Lakes area, but still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 The narrow ridge/trough longwave pattern is inherently tough to get right with threats. Little shifts cause large swings in sensible wx. The ridge in the west is too far east for large precip events covering large areas. The tradeoff is having sig cold outbreaks because we're more in the crosshairs as cold air drops south. We generally do better with snow with broad troughs (stating obvious). Ens (especially the EPS) lately are supportive of the tall ridge and narrow wavelengths. If that's right it's going to drive us a little crazy with jumpy op runs even with blocking. The trend late in the range is more supportive for cold but less supportive for snow and/or precip. I'm still very optimistic that we get our chances this month but it's probably going to take longer than we think. Generally speaking, good events happen right before relaxations of an amplified pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Two mb weaker and ever so slightly east hr 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 At 120 hrs., clipper looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Looks like ene loses their blizzard this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 terrible model runs so far at 12z. Typical. We we need a positive trend, we take 2 step backs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Before anyone thinks about jumping, here are the last 8 gefs centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ji said: terrible model runs so far at 12z. Typical. We we need a positive trend, we take 2 step backs Depressing grab a bottle of Jack Daniels runs the last 12 hours, if anything could go wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I feel like a lot of costal storms trend NW within 5 days of the event. If I can recall the early Jan 2017 event went from a non-event even 50 miles east of DC to 1.5" of snow. Still, the 12z runs aren't the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 terrible model runs so far at 12z. Typical. We we need a positive trend, we take 2 step backsPatience my son. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ji said: terrible model runs so far at 12z. Typical. We we need a positive trend, we take 2 step backs Speaking of crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I feel like a lot of costal storms trend NW within 5 days of the event. If I can recall the early Jan 2017 event went from a non-event even 50 miles east of DC to 1.5" of snow. Still, the 12z runs aren't the best That event was amazing considering the winter, but a bit traumatic lol. 2 days out the bullseye was over Greenville, NC and it slowly moved N-NW to Tidewater. The forecast was 8-12" with isolated up to 14" for MBY 12 hours out. Officially ended up with about 6" and Williamsburg got clobbered with 13". Struggled with mixed precip throughout the night despite temps hovering just under 32. Damn warm nose lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ji said: terrible model runs so far at 12z. Typical. We we need a positive trend, we take 2 step backs We're still 5 days out. For now, enjoy the cold anomaly projected on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Patience my son. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk already carving out my usual place in the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, SteveVa said: That event was amazing considering the winter, but a bit traumatic lol. 2 days out the bullseye was over Greenville, NC and it slowly moved N-NW to Tidewater. The forecast was 8-12" with isolated up to 14" for MBY 12 hours out. Officially ended up with about 6" and Williamsburg got clobbered with 13". Struggled with mixed precip throughout the night despite temps hovering just under 32. Damn warm nose lol. Also, if I recall, a snow event in late Feb 2015 did the same thing 3 days out. Went from nothing to 3" of snow. Some do the opposite though, so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Also, if I recall, a snow event in late Feb 2015 did the same thing 3 days out. Went from nothing to 3" of snow. Some do the opposite though, so we'll see Ask NYC about what happened to them during Nemo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Hardly any stay locked this far out... so it'll get either worse (going from 0 to 0 inches) or better (going from 0 to something). Moral of the story is it can only stay the same or get better for the end result! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 I keep saying this, but I really believe the trends that we have seen are nearly ideal to what we want to see at d5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I keep saying this, but I really believe the trends that we have seen are nearly ideal to what we want to see at d5... I’m going to stick with you in this..I want to join Ji in the abyss of hell. But I will show restraint and caution...can’t got out with this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Ji is my favorite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: Ji is my favorite I agree...He does bring character and intrigue to the forum...with a pinch of premature despair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Decent overrunning event in fantasy land on the euro. Something like that actually makes a lot of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Decent overrunning event in fantasy land on the euro. Something like that actually makes a lot of sense. Is that over-running, or a Miller B? Scoots under us then really turns on when it hits the coast. Would be big for NYC/Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Is that over-running, or a Miller B? Scoots under us then really turns on when it hits the coast. Would be big for NYC/Philly. For us is waa overrunning in front of a developing low in the TN valley. Gulf connection. Likely won't be there next run but that is one of the ways we can do well with this pattern. Lots of pieces of energy rotating around. Euro connected one with a gulf moisture feed. That works here far better than a moisture starved clipper or a jumper/redeveloper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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