Wonderdog Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 We need that possible coastal to slow down a bit (where is all the blocking?) so it can deepen a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Temps for next week would be my concern for sure. The GL low is hurting us big time on the 6z with temps while helping to bring it NW. One bone I'd throw out, maybe pipe dream is the better phrase, is the change to the GFS has definitely been keeping boundary layer temps too warm this fall. Cool those surface temps on the 6z by 2 degrees, and we're really in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Is it possible for the GL low and the coastal to phase in time for the mid atlantic to benefit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Fun squally snow if we can get into the pattern. It's warm everywhere today east of the Rockies, the pattern hasn't broke. I wonder if this will verify as a day in the 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Fun squally snow if we can get into the pattern. It's warm everywhere today east of the Rockies, the pattern hasn't broke. I wonder if this will verify as a day in the 60s Give us your black and white forecast and why, not unsubstantiated musing that are contrary to every wx model in existence. Until you do, your posts offer nothing. Not to be nasty, just to keep banter out of weather threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 TT has added a new snow depth algorithm fwiw- more accurate, perhaps, but less woof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Arctic air doesn't shoot that far Southeast in this timing sequence- the PV drops out of Canada as the Pacific ridge is building, not after, an independent entity. These things never verify when today it's raining in Minneapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 35 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Temps for next week would be my concern for sure. The GL low is hurting us big time on the 6z with temps while helping to bring it NW. One bone I'd throw out, maybe pipe dream is the better phrase, is the change to the GFS has definitely been keeping boundary layer temps too warm this fall. Cool those surface temps on the 6z by 2 degrees, and we're really in business. Didn't look at the 6z until just now, but yeah it's GL low does bring a brief surge of warmer air up west of the mountains at 925mb. But even if that were to make it across the mountains I think that would be fairly quickly overcome with any decent precip because we have sufficiently cold 850 temps over top and the warm layer is probably shallow to boot just from looking at thicknesses at that time. Not sure I buy the solution anyway when I look at the other runs though. eta: As I posted elsewhere I think the set up argues that if we have any issues with temps if will come from the east (flow off ocean) and not from the west (flow around the GL low). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Give us your black and white forecast and why, not unsubstantiated musing that are contrary to every wx model in existence. Until you do, your posts offer nothing. Not to be nasty, just to keep banter out of weather threads. Don't bother. I respond to him in banter but I've stopped here, as hard as it is, because it just derails the productive discussion. He is flat out making stuff up now. It has gotten cold here 3-5 days after it rains in Minnesota plenty of times. He is either trolling and knows that or crazy and just making it up. Either way you can't win. It's not worth arguing in here and clogging up the thread with more crap. I agree I wish he would stop but others have decided to just ignore him so I'm following their lead in this thread at least. (Not easy for a debate coach!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 28 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Fun squally snow if we can get into the pattern. It's warm everywhere today east of the Rockies, the pattern hasn't broke. I wonder if this will verify as a day in the 60s lol, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: We need that possible coastal to slow down a bit (where is all the blocking?) so it can deepen a bit more. Irregardless of any interaction with any energy from the NS I would not be surprised if we see a further strengthening of that low in future runs as well as a drawing of it closer to the coast. The overall look (jet, trough, where I think the favorable location for the baroclinic zone to set up, etc...) at this time suggests of that possibility. Of course this is all contingent on the models actually being correct in their depiction and not going to crap on subsequent runs. Of which time will only tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 24 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Didn't look at the 6z until just now, but yeah it's GL low does bring a brief surge of warmer air up west of the mountains at 925mb. But even if that were to make it across the mountains I think that would be fairly quickly overcome with any decent precip because we have sufficiently cold 850 temps over top and the warm layer is probably shallow to boot just from looking at thicknesses at that time. Not sure I buy the solution anyway when I look at the other runs though. eta: As I posted elsewhere I think the set up argues that if we have any issues with temps if will come from the east (flow off ocean) and not from the west (flow around the GL low). You'll do fine if the 6z is close to verifying, but those of us on the coastal plain and in and around the beltways of DC & BALT would not be so lucky verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: You'll do fine if the 6z is close to verifying, but those of us on the coastal plain and in and around the beltways of DC & BALT would not be so lucky verbatim. Just so you and others know my postings are strictly for the DC/Balt corridor. I'm really not going to dig deep into the 06Z GFS (not a big fan of off runs, and we are talking 5, 6 days out to boot) but casually looking at it would suggest that any warm layer that may possible be there from the flow around the GL low would be very shallow and quickly scoured out. But I definitely could be wrong. Knowing you, you have already pulled up a skew to check and looked over everything else to boot so I will defer to your assessment of what the 06Z shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 GFS still has it, but looks like it's going to be farther east. I guess we gotta take the fact that it's consistently showing up as a positive. I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS still has it, but looks like it's going to be farther east. I guess we gotta take the fact that it's consistently showing up as a positive. I guess. Weaker too at least initially so not throwing back precip as far west...not sure if that matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Agonizingly close...but yet so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: Agonizingly close...but yet so far I'm a scrub but my feeling is that we need this to stay east as depicted to keep us cold enough, but have the precipitation shield expand west. If that storm is much closer to the coast, I'd bet we are rain and white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah. Not worth much more than that IMO. Guidance isn't going to nail the strength or placement of the low this far out. Right 500mb didn’t change a lot from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'm a scrub but my feeling is that we need this to stay east as depicted to keep us cold enough, but have the precipitation shield expand west. If that storm is much closer to the coast, I'd bet we are rain and white rain. Ideally yes...we need a thread the needle. Either the scenario you just mentioned or a slight move west and walking the line, but cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Ideally yes...we need a thread the needle. Either the scenario you just mentioned or a slight move west and walking the line, but cold enough. Like 6z showed..I don’t think we can get everyone snow out of this..someone has to lose..or maybe all of us lose...6z was nice if you are west of the fall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Some changes with the energy running in from the west on this run. Looks as if it is actually making an attempt to Miller B something right as the storm departs. We aren't too far from a good solution (rain?, snow?, who knows) for a storm and would not be surprised if we see some interesting solutions on the GEFS. The next few days are going to be interesting on the runs as they try to sort out what they want to do with all the pieces on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Ideally yes...we need a thread the needle. Either the scenario you just mentioned or a slight move west and walking the line, but cold enough. Ns low was much weaker this run so not as much tug to back flow/heights. I'm not a fan of the different ways the ns and gulf wave interact and what it means at the surface. Seems like the most likely way for the wave to back into our region is to root for a stronger ns low but a stronger low does damage with temps. If I lived further from the cities I would prob be good with that but I'm not feeling it. The ultimate solution (but probably least likely) is to have no northern stream low at all and just hope the trough is sharp enough to back flow into our yards. A good backup plan is to forget about the wave and just hope for the big dig with the NS. That's a tall order in early Dec. Seems to be another one of those setups that is stacked against. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 So people already have 12z? It is just coming in on TT, but maybe paid has it already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m not even sure what people’s expectations are for this.. No school on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: So people already have 12z? It is just coming in on TT, but maybe paid has it already? Did you remember to turn your clock back on your computer? Kidding. It's available on TT. I'm not sure what you're seeing but it's out to 210. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’d take a chance with a stronger low, but I’m not expecting much...this is getting complicated and we don’t do that well ever let alone early December. Not giving up yet..plenty of time and so close..just after first flakes...that seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’d take a chance with a stronger low, but I’m not expecting much...this is getting complicated and we don’t do that well ever let alone early December. Complicated? I think that describes 90% of the storms we get. Well you all have fun with the rest of the runs. I myself am heading out to eat some great Mexican and then do some X-Mas shopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Complicated? I think that describes 90% of the storms we get. Well you all have fun with the rest of the runs. I myself am heading out to eat some great Mexican and then do some X-Mas shopping. Check in about 1330...Euro...expect something interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Complicated? I think that describes 90% of the storms we get. Well you all have fun with the rest of the runs. I myself am heading out to eat some great Mexican and then do some X-Mas shopping. Bring adult diapers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 3, 2017 Share Posted December 3, 2017 Gfs and Canadian were sweet runs if you enjoy futility. Since I'm still here, apparently I must. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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