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December 2017 Long Range Disco

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yep, similar to yesterday's 12z Euro.  Last night's run shat the bed for us.

Still a decent signal though. Just a bit too far east for most of us. The snow mean (through 12z Sun) looks almost exactly the same on the 0z EPS.

The 0z EPS 15 day snow mean is better than 12z.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

Looking over the 0z EPS/individual members, lots of NS action. If we are going to score something(beyond the next Friday possibility), its likely going to be from a clipper- possibly with some coastal development. There are some nice looks among the members for the MA, although many others are a tad too far north.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

The upcoming 2/3 day period after the frontal passage is starting to look very interesting to say the least. Been keeping an eye on it for possibilities for near a week but never really dug into it until just now with the GEFS hoping to get better clarity. But that was a fruitless cause. There is so much going on that we may not know what to expect until it is almost on our doorstep. Energy is flying around everywhere, in the SS, NS, even energy rotating around the pv. To further complicate matters the depiction of all this energy changes from run to run often quite drastically. The only things we may know, and that is with a very low degree of certainty, is that the GEFS likes the idea of SS energy through the south and up the SE coast through this period. That it likes the idea of potent NS energy (roughly day 5) diving down into the central/southern Mississippi valley. And that it likes the idea of driving strong energy, rotating around the pv, through the same region about a day later. 

With all that said and the uncertainty involved, I do think the ingredients are there for a potent coastal storm through this period. We have good placement of the northern jet diving down into the southern jet in the lower Mississippi valley, a southern jet running through the south and off the mid-Atlantic coast, good trough placement that goes negative tilt, and key energy mentioned above in the SS, NS and possibly the pv energy.  And I have to wonder if the GEFS may be moving towards a potent coastal when I see how it is buckling the southern jet, running it up the east coast, all the while rapidly strengthening it. To me this is a signature of a strong coastal.

But I can also see several other scenarios play out with the key pieces of energy which are just as likely if not more so. A weak coastal then a follow up Miller B. A weak coastal with just a strong pv rotating through. A strong coastal followed by a Miller B. I could go on and I am sure there are scenarios I haven't dreamed of. And this just involves what I consider to be the 3 key pieces of energy depicted at this time and with their possible placement, dig, and timing. Who's to say with all the other energy, either depicted at this time or not, actually comes into play instead.

All in all, I am going to enjoy the next several days of tracking to see how the models resolve this and like our chances through this period for at least a little something if not possibly something more substantial.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Still a decent signal though. Just a bit too far east for most of us. The snow mean (through 12z Sun) looks almost exactly the same on the 0z EPS.

The 0z EPS 15 day snow mean is better than 12z.

Just knowing the tendencies of the GFS from last winter I would not be surprised to see that adjust north and/or west a touch. GFS used to have a heavy bias towards depicting a strong overriding NS that squashed everything out initially only to weaken the NS in future runs moving coastal storms NW, often quite substantially. They have for the most part corrected that bias a year or two ago but I believe it still exists (from what I saw last winter) but to a much smaller degree. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just knowing the tendencies of the GFS from last winter I would not be surprised to see that adjust north and/or west a touch. GFS used to have a heavy bias towards depicting a strong overriding NS that squashed everything out initially only to weaken the NS in future runs moving coastal storms NW, often quite substantially. They have for the most part corrected that bias a year or two ago but I believe it still exists (from what I saw last winter) but to a much smaller degree. 

I was referring to the 0z Euro as compared to the 12z. I was pointing out that the signal is still there on the 0z EPS, and the snow mean isn't much different for the area for late week.

The 6z GFS actually looked pretty good for the area. Despite what some of the snow maps may suggest, at this point I think the odds of seeing more than a slushy coating to an inch are pretty low anywhere in our region for late next week. I would be totally fine with seeing some mood flakes flying.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I was referring to the 0z Euro as compared to the 12z. I was pointing out that the signal is still there on the 0z EPS, and the snow mean isn't much different for the area for late week.

The 6z GFS actually looked pretty good for the area. Despite what some of the snow maps may suggest, at this point I think the odds of seeing more than a slushy coating to an inch are pretty low anywhere in the area for late next week. I would be totally fine with seeing some mood flakes flying.

My bad. Lost track with the back and forth on the EPS and the GFS.

There are two things in the upcoming window that my confidence is somewhat building on. That we see, at the very least, a little snow (mood flakes, trace, inch??? from the pv/upper level energy rotating through). The second is that we see a fairly strong storm somewhere off the coast from OBX up to NE in some shape, form, evolution, etc.. Now trying to figure out what that possible storm could mean for our region is a fools errand considering the things I listed above in my previous post. As I said before, this will most likely be an enjoyable time to be tracking and would not be surprised if the models fake us out a time or two before they actually settle on a solution

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, mappy said:

Friday and next weekend look interesting. I think o6z gfs gave me 6+” of snow through the weekend 

6z looks quite active. I’m not focusing too far beyond,and am just happy to see multiple opps pinwheeling down from the north. 

Peek at snow map if u like pink n purple colors (cause we can’t look for accums) ;)

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Something to keep an eye on for next Friday is the GL low currently on the models which would screw with our mid-levels.  Obviously a lot to sort out over the next few days.

Actually that may not be the case. Things can and will change but at this point that low is associated with the pv dropping down into the lakes. All of this (pv/surface low) is located deep within the dome of cold air with a further resurgence of even colder air wrapping around them into the deep south. So when looking at the source region of where SW winds at mid-levels would be drawing from that air will be just as cold if not colder. Of course this is going by what is currently depicted.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

May have already been mentioned but the EPS mean went up a good bit.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah it was a nice up tick for the 15 day. Also the members are starting to pick up on the idea of a coastal next weekend as we now have 8 of them showing 2+ inches (actually a few very nice solutions in there) through the DC/Balt region whereas we were seeing very little in that regards on previous runs.

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted
Actually that may not be the case. Things can and will change but at this point that low is associated with the pv dropping down into the lakes. All of this (pv/surface low) is located deep within the dome of cold air with a further resurgence of even colder air wrapping around them into the deep south. So when looking at the source region of where SW winds at mid-levels would be drawing from that air will be just as cold if not colder. Of course this is going by what is currently depicted.



Ah, good point!
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BTRWx's Thanks Giving

BTRWx's Thanks Giving

Posted
Posted

Best lwx afd in a long while! 

The big questions now appear to center on Friday. Models
continue to flip-flop regarding potential for a strong shortwave
rotating around the deep longwave trough over the eastern US to
induce coastal low development off the southeast coast. This low
could potentially bring some mixed precip or snow to the region,
given available cold air and likelyhood that the low track would
be far enough to the east to prevent significant warm air from
reaching our region. While guidance continues to flip back and
forth regarding how far east or west this low is, the latest
flip back east with the 0Z guidance did not fully take it off
the table, so this raises our interest in concern that the
models may be starting to hone in on a stormier solution. Only
advice at this point it to stay tuned... it is December, after
all.

Snow showers may continue with additional passing disturbances
next weekend, with continued below normal temperatures.
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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

 


Ah, good point!

 

As far as having issues with temps on any possible coastal storm I think that will probably originate more so from our east. We need to get deep enough into the cold where an E/NE flow off the warm ocean doesn't wreck the mid-levels. And that is not a sure thing whatsoever. If we do see a coastal it may very well be the case where we start as rain only to flip when the winds draw around to the NW/W towards the tail end of the storm.

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aldie 22

aldie 22

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

As far as having issues with temps on any possible coastal storm I think that will probably originate more so from our east. We need to get deep enough into the cold where an E/NE flow off the warm ocean doesn't wreck the mid-levels. And that is not a sure thing whatsoever. If we do see a coastal it may very well be the case where we start as rain only to flip when the winds draw around to the NW/W towards the tail end of the storm.

Today feels like a 12z GFS happy run

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