NorthArlington101 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I guess 8-9 days from now would technically be November but the other thread is kind of dead so I'll briefly discuss this here. Bit of a hint of some kind of low off the EC on last nights EPS and this mornings GEFS around day 8. Figured it was worth mentioning so that if something turns out popping up then I can get the credit, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 GEFS really showing a beautiful pattern by the last few days of the run with a joined +PNA/-EPO ridge combo in addition to the negative NAO and AOs. Probably is evolving the pattern too quickly, but love the blocking signal that keeps showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 OP run definitely caught my attention towards the end of the run as well with all the blocking, some semblance of split flow out west, and cold dumping into the central/eastern US. Even if it is jumping on the pattern progression too quickly I don’t think many here would complain if it holds off until made to late December. Just in time for the holidays. Overall the modeled pattern looks pretty good after a brief relaxation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS really showing a beautiful pattern by the last few days of the run with a joined +PNA/-EPO ridge combo in addition to the negative NAO and AOs. Probably is evolving the pattern too quickly, but love the blocking signal that keeps showing up. GEFS has been putting out some really nice looks for early December lately, but man today's 12z run is a thing of beauty at the end. And you're right, it is probably getting there too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: GEFS has been putting out some really nice looks for early December lately, but man today's 12z run is a thing of beauty at the end. And you're right, it is probably getting there too fast. Yup....pic worthy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yup....pic worthy.... sure is..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I've got to be back in Seattle for the 21st through the first week of January, so I have been secretly rooting for an early to mid December event. Nice to see that might, maybe, hopefully, be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I love how the op Euro tries to reestablish the block quickly last 2 runs. Too bad it wont lose that western US trough, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 I think that the hints of an early start, are hints to us of an early start to tracking the cold outbreak, or the blocking episode, or the amazing modeled snowstorm, that is always ten days out, lol. If we had half of the modeled blocks and snows actually come to fruition, we'd have a good start to the next Ice Age here in the Mid Atlantic. And, I'd be out on yet another epic jebwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Too bad it wont lose that western US trough, lol. GEPS has a split flow shown late in the run as well. At least trends are showing +PNA to get established. Just need AO/NAO to help. Tired of seeing 500 looking decent, but surface cutting through midwest.... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 GEPS has it going on as well with the -EPO & -AO/NAO look. EPS still with more of a western trough/SE ridge at day 15, but with all guidance showing big time HL blocking, one would think that any trough out west/SE ridge would get beat down going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 50 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: GEPS has it going on as well with the -EPO & -AO/NAO look. EPS still with more of a western trough/SE ridge at day 15, but with all guidance showing big time HL blocking, one would think that any trough out west/SE ridge would get beat down going forward. EPS looks like it's evolving to the same sort of pattern the GEFS is at the end, just taking slower, which is probably more realistic. You can see the -NAO start to flex and beat down the SE ridge on the EPS in the last few panels. Really basically the same look as the GEFS minus the PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS looks like it's evolving to the same sort of pattern the GEFS is at the end, just taking slower, which is probably more realistic. You can see the -NAO start to flex and beat down the SE ridge on the EPS in the last few panels. Really basically the same look as the GEFS minus the PNA ridge. Yup. Agreed. The big takeaway looking at the 3 global ensemble runs is the impressive HL h5 +height anomalies. The pattern progression/timing is subject to the usual model bias. It would be nice if a +PNA materializes at least for a time, but otherwise I think we can manage just fine, as long as there isn't a persistent deep trough out west somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Not at all the same thing I was talking about earlier, but 6 GEFS members have a rain-to-snow event Day 7/8. 0 had it at 12z. 6 members agreeing on something may be the best odds we've had this year in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 22, 2017 Share Posted November 22, 2017 Jeesh! @ LR 18z Gefs. Better trough placement than 12z...out in lala land but man what a look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Jeesh! @ LR 18z Gefs. Better trough placement than 12z...out in lala land but man what a look... That EPO ridge, wow. The NA ridge placement is even slightly better than 12z. Close to a bridge. Too bad its 15 days away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That EPO ridge, wow. The NA ridge placement is even slightly better than 12z. Close to a bridge. Too bad its 15 days away.. Pretty symmetrical NH pattern....I'm guessing, like others have said, that this look stays at day 14-16 for several more days before we see it move forward in time. A very strong signal tho for HLB..Wait and see but I'm getting popcorn ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Just now, poolz1 said: Pretty symmetrical NH pattern....I'm guessing, like others have said, that this look stays at day 14-16 for several more days before we see it move forward in time. A very strong signal tho for HLB..Wait and see but I'm getting popcorn ready! It probably is a bit rushed on the GEFS. Lets book that panel for around the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 GFS ensembles- this is the best Day 7-16 pattern I've ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: GFS ensembles- this is the best Day 7-16 pattern I've ever seen I still don’t see a major winter storm out of that pattern. Certainly good looking 500mb but I am jaded when it comes to good patterns. You can’t shovel potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 It's technically Fall. The pattern is just awesome because of its sustainability index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 This was an easy one... La Nina surrounded by warm SSTs so close, and not connected to subsurface. Always look for this to produce cold Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck said: It's technically Fall. The pattern is just awesome because of its sustainability index Agreed. It does keep things rolling in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said: GFS ensembles- this is the best Day 7-16 pattern I've ever seen warm slush or cold rain? better yet 60+ and sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 35 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: ugh I hope there are other uber LR that show another solution...just for fun of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I hope there are other uber LR that show another solution...just for fun of course EPS weeklies looked fine. Much different. Euro vs. JMA. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: EPS weeklies looked fine. Much different. Euro vs. JMA. lol Go with the model that has the worst solution. I think it was Ji that once said that. He is a wise man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 Well if the JMA has a torch, it must be true. Seriously, has the JMA ever been right on anything, much less a forecast a month from now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 23, 2017 Share Posted November 23, 2017 18 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Well if the JMA has a torch, it must be true. Seriously, has the JMA ever been right on anything, much less a forecast a month from now? No it has not. One thing I am thankful for is as it appears right now this December will not be like last year. That was a lesson in pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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