showmethesnow Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Seeing a really deep drop of the pv lobe down into the western lakes through 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Kind of following it through and the overall look has improved with trough placement, tilt, energy rotating through. Not sure it would be enough but baby steps.... That vort is stronger..lets see if it digs a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Still seeing the coastal form at 150 but the energy dropping down in the Midwest is much farther south of the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: Still seeing the coastal form at 150 but the energy dropping down in the Midwest is much farther south of the previous run. I can kinda see this evolving into a Miller B type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I can kinda see this evolving into a Miller B type deal. Same here. Especially when I see the trough close off again and drive just to our west. Timings off still but 5/6 days to overcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 I wish we'd start using the Albright and Cobb storm classification, but I get that Miller A/B is easier to remember. It's just way more dynamic than an A/B or Alberta Clipper scenario Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Patterns by Albright and Cobb - http://www.glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Casualbrain said: I wish we'd start using the Albright and Cobb storm classification, but I get that Miller A/B is easier to remember. It's just way more dynamic than an A/B or Alberta Clipper scenario Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm Patterns by Albright and Cobb - http://www.glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Be interest to se GEFS..the op run post 300 is a vastly different look than 6z at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Be interest to se GEFS..the op run post 300 is a vastly different look than 6z at 500mb No wonder with a breakdown in the PNA. See it building back in towards the end of the run though. Think we are pretty much relegated to the ensembles for general large scale weather patterns on anything outside of 10 days if not sooner. Ops will probably be pretty much useless at range except for throwing out the occasional bone for those that like fantasy snowstorms or torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: No wonder with a breakdown in the PNA. See it building back in towards the end of the run though. Think we are pretty much relegated to the ensembles for general large scale weather patterns on anything outside of 10 days if not sooner. Ops will probably be pretty much useless at range except for throwing out the occasional bone for those that like fantasy snowstorms or torches. Agree it’s just one of the few less inspiring looks we have had in a while...so it stands out at bit..but when ever I see large scale changes I wonder if it s a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Agree it’s just one of the few less inspiring looks we have had in a while...so it stands out at bit..but when ever I see large scale changes I wonder if it s a blip. I wouldn't worry at all over an op run though beyond a week. If some sort of distinct trend shows up in the next 2-3 GEFS runs, that may be a different story. Even then its not necessarily a big deal. For several runs the GEFS was retrograding the pattern and bringing the WAR westward, and it has backed off of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 12z GEFS is solid. Signal is there for something post frontal next week. E20! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z GEFS is solid. Signal is there for something post frontal next week. E20! And we are back...nice work my friend..you are doing a Yeomans job this season...didn’t we have a poster named Yeoman? We need a where are the now thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Someday some young group of scientists is going to solve the cold and stormy bias that exists in our long range models --- and I can't help thinking that it will lessen our enjoyment of this hobby. ... Keep the hour "infinity" temperature and snow maps coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 We are so close to a blizzard, seemingly slipping under the radar. Awesome phase potential here. Good moisture flow all the way to central Mexico. Timing aesthetics is off. Use this thread to consolidate and spark interest in the threat? High side could be a 24" snowstorm in the 1% scenario. No high pressure for 1000 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 20 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Someday some young group of scientists is going to solve the cold and stormy bias that exists in our long range models --- and I can't help thinking that it will lessen our enjoyment of this hobby. ... Keep the hour "infinity" temperature and snow maps coming! Not if you support chaos theory. eta: recognizing when the bias happens can be mastered eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 36 minutes ago, BristowWx said: And we are back...nice work my friend..you are doing a Yeomans job this season...didn’t we have a poster named Yeoman? We need a where are the now thread He literally has posted multiple times in the past few days in this thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Something is cooking off the Gulf Stream ~hr 144 of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Something is cooking off the Gulf Stream ~hr 144 of the euro. Absolutely! Euro amps the wave enough to throw light precip back to Pitt at hour 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Something is cooking off the Gulf Stream ~hr 144 of the euro. Snowfall is a little misleading it seems like. Most of the precip from that wave doesn’t fall as snow according to P-Type maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Snowfall is a little misleading it seems like. Most of the precip from that wave doesn’t fall as snow according to P-Type maps. Maybe the precip type maps are misleading? Those 850s are plenty cold! Someone find out why the discrepancy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: He literally has posted multiple times in the past few days in this thread! Yes my bad I missed it. I really only look for your posts and a few others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Sfc temps and issue (mid 30's dropping to low 30's by eve) but snow TV certainly on Fri per the euro. Slushy accums probably half of what that shows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Sfc temps and issue (mid 30's dropping to low 30's by eve) but snow TV certainly on Fri per the euro. Slushy accums probably half of what that shows.. Good enough for me to kick things off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Sfc temps and issue (mid 30's dropping to low 30's by eve) but snow TV certainly on Fri per the euro. Slushy accums probably half of what that shows.. The system doesn't show up well at 500mb, so we would need something deeper for a more meaningful result. A north back and forth wobble at this stage is great imo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Wouldn't complain a bit with that. Will be interested to see the ens members....if there is a sig uptick maybe we will have our first trackable event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Umm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 17 hours ago, Bob Chill said: The gap between Dec 20th and Jan 30th during 09-10 was pretty damn boring. Technically it was a white Christmas that year but that's only because the snow was deep enough to survive a warm rainstorm on Christmas day. Lol. The late Jan storm snuck up at the last minute so we really didn't track it all that much. Most including me wrote off that event and expected a whiff to the south. But it ended up being a cold powder bomb. I remember driving around during the heavy snow and it was 15 degrees in the middle of the afternoon. Feb was back to back mayhem of course but the switch flipped and winter was over. We got teased with the late Feb event. For a record breaking winter, 09-10 was overall pretty boring from a tracking standpoint. 13-14 will probably hold the crown for the most interesting winter ever in my book until I'm dead. That one started early and never let up. There was always something to track even if it didn't work out. The tighty spaced events in Feb/Mar wore me the hell out. I didn't get a good night's sleep for a month. My body was trained to wake up at 1am for the euro (and that's if I fell asleep before that which was rare). I can honeslty say when April hit in 2014 I was kinda glad it was over in some ways. I agree but I'm certainly not gonna complain about 2010! But from a purely tracking point of view 2014 was better. I will say I remember by mid January 2010 I was pretty sure the pattern was evidently reloading and fun times were ahead even though for some reason there was a drumbeat of "winters over" going on from some. I even remember the early feb storm did show up on a few uber long range gfs runs but people were upset the surface was marginal and I was arguing that with that blocking and the time of year surface temps were unlikely to end up being a problem. I just had a feeling given the pattern and blocking that year that we had at least one more big one coming that year even during the lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 I am not going to get this one, and I accept my fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Umm.... Chances of that SE stripe happening? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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