December 2017 Long Range Disco

[mitchnick]

For giggles, current CFS2 temps (top) and precip (bottom) for January. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2017120112&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2017120112&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

[showmethesnow]

Pretty much steady as she goes with the overnight EPS run. Still a good look which shows possibilities throughout the extended and probably well beyond. One thing of note is it is once again jacking up the + PNA in the extended. 

eta: We are seeing an attempt once again to bridge the west and east ridging (day 8-12). See where that goes in the coming runs because that would probably have implications on how far south we see the pv push.

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

For giggles, current CFS2 temps (top) and precip (bottom) for January. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2017120112&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2017120112&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

Nice to see. Seems like forever since we have seen this profile. At least when it wasn't spring.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Nice to see. Seems like forever since we have seen this profile. At least when it wasn't spring.

Yep, and the look up top is supportive,  which you often don't see on the monthly forecasts. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017120112&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

[Wonderdog]

6z develops a coastal off the cold front that just misses us but 0z did not develop it; 0z shows a 12-15 hour snow event on the 14th and its suppression city on the 6z. Needless to say, the models are jumping around. The only constant has been the fact that a cold front is on the way.

[showmethesnow]

The 15 day snowfall means for the EPS throws the 2" line through Balt/DC whereas the 12Z had the 3" line through the cities. Not really going to break down individual time periods except to say that the 2-3 day window (which I feel may need to be kept an eye on) after the front clears is underwhelming to say the least. There are hints of a possible southern storm forming on the stalled front to the south. Hints of a storm forming off the SE coast as NS energy hits the coast. Also hints that the Midwest low may dig far enough to actually come into play. But for the most part the ensembles heavily favor a cold and mostly dry period period during this time.

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Chuck should be making an appearance once he's awake and sees the 384 hr 6z gfs op. Thankfully the GEFS (and all other LR data) pretty much disagrees on the mean ridge centered in the central US progressing Eastward :-)

[Wonderdog]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Chuck should be making an appearance once he's awake and sees the 384 hr 6z gfs op. Thankfully the GEFS (and all other LR data) pretty much disagrees on the mean ridge centered in the central US progressing Eastward :-)

Looks like it's trying to, doesn't it?

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

6z develops a coastal off the cold front that just misses us but 0z did not develop it; 0z shows a 12-15 hour snow event on the 14th and its suppression city on the 6z. Needless to say, the models are jumping around. The only constant has been the fact that a cold front is on the way.

IMO the ops are going to be for the most part worthless with anything beyond 7 days, if not 5 or even less, except to show possibilities because of the very chaotic nature of the of the upcoming period. All I need to see is active southern and northern jet, with energy embedded within them, and rotating pv lobes with energy rotating around them as well to know that odds favor the op runs will probably be all over the board from run to run. I might add as well that counting on the ensembles to nail a particular event beyond the mid range may be a fruitless task as well.

But I tell you, at this point in time it is hard not to get excited with what the models are throwing up. What we could possibly see is quite an extended period of time (if the models are correct we could be talking well past the 15/16 day period) where we see decent opportunities pop up every few days. And with the chaotic nature I would not be surprised to see them basically be on our doorstep before we realize that they are there.

[Wonderdog]

28 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

6z develops a coastal off the cold front that just misses us but 0z did not develop it; 0z shows a 12-15 hour snow event on the 14th and its suppression city on the 6z. Needless to say, the models are jumping around. The only constant has been the fact that a cold front is on the way.

 actually, on the 6z the cold front hangs up in the southeast which allows a storm to develop and ride up to the Northeast, off the coast, whereas the 0z Run did not do that. I think this might be a possibility for the Mid-Atlantic and bears watching.

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The 15 day snowfall means for the EPS throws the 2" line through Balt/DC whereas the 12Z had the 3" line through the cities. Not really going to break down individual time periods except to say that the 2-3 day window (which I feel may need to be kept an eye on) after the front clears is underwhelming to say the least. There are hints of a possible southern storm forming on the stalled front to the south. Hints of a storm forming off the SE coast as NS energy hits the coast. Also hints that the Midwest low may dig far enough to actually come into play. But for the most part the ensembles heavily favor a cold and mostly dry period period during this time.

 

 

The ens sure have a NS dominant, fast flow look overall. There is some ridging over GL at times, so its possible things could slow down and the trough could sharpen at some point, allowing for some southern stream energy to get more involved. Just sort of a wait and see. Other than the wave behind the mid-late week front reappearing, we likely will have to score something with a clipper. Plenty of shortwaves will be diving down, so hopefully we get one to sharpen and slide underneath.

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The ens sure have a NS dominant, fast flow look overall. There is some ridging over GL at times, so its possible things could slow down and the trough could sharpen at some point, allowing for some southern stream energy to get more involved. Just sort of a wait and see. Other than the wave behind the mid-late week front reappearing, we likely will have to score something with a clipper. Plenty of shortwaves will be diving down, so hopefully we get one to sharpen and slide underneath.

This was my concern for the season is the southern stream would be shunted given the ENSO signal of a Nina and squashed systems thanks to the eventual PV positioning for the first part of winter. I didn't go bullish at all on my snowfall contest numbers because of that. I do feel this is a great pattern for cold, but we will have to get fortunate with digging waves to really get anything significant in a northern stream dominant setup. For me, I just love winter. I love the cold seasonal feel and chances for snow with cold temperatures hanging around for a while. This pattern should do the trick and with the amount of vorts rotating down the backside of the trough, a few are bound to be sharper and would provide a chance to sneak over top or south of our latitude. Plus, all the frontal progressions down into the southeast could generate a few waves to ride up the baroclinic zone produced from the multiple fronts. Whether they can come up and affect our latitude is another question. If we can hold this pattern into January, we could be seeing some deep winter stuff this way with staying power. There will undoubtedly be a few relaxation periods where temps rebound to near normal, but for all intents and purposes, this is a pretty solid signal for a cold pattern with longevity. 

[showmethesnow]

 

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

This was my concern for the season is the southern stream would be shunted given the ENSO signal of a Nina and squashed systems thanks to the eventual PV positioning for the first part of winter. I didn't go bullish at all on my snowfall contest numbers because of that. I do feel this is a great pattern for cold, but we will have to get fortunate with digging waves to really get anything significant in a northern stream dominant setup. For me, I just love winter. I love the cold seasonal feel and chances for snow with cold temperatures hanging around for a while. This pattern should do the trick and with the amount of vorts rotating down the backside of the trough, a few are bound to be sharper and would provide a chance to sneak over top or south of our latitude. Plus, all the frontal progressions down into the southeast could generate a few waves to ride up the baroclinic zone produced from the multiple fronts. Whether they can come up and affect our latitude is another question. If we can hold this pattern into January, we could be seeing some deep winter stuff this way with staying power. There will undoubtedly be a few relaxation periods where temps rebound to near normal, but for all intents and purposes, this is a pretty solid signal for a cold pattern with longevity. 

That was my first thought when I saw the overnight EPS. Put that pattern into Jan instead of early mid Dec and we are talking some serious cold central US into the east.

[CAPE]

The 15th has been showing up on various op and ens runs as a period with a signal for a possible storm. This is a pretty darn nice h5 look from the 0z eps- just enough ridging over GL and lower heights underneath in the 50-50 region. Upper level jet configuration isn't bad either. GEFS looks similar, with a sharper trough.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

 

That was my first thought when I saw the overnight EPS. Put that pattern into Jan instead of early mid Dec and we are talking some serious cold central US into the east.

If we put these forecasted departures into January, we're looking at some memorable stuff in terms of cold. I still think we're gonna see flakes fly in December around these parts, but I'm not sure we'll see a lot in terms of accumulation. Whatever does fall will stick and stay around though. I'm rooting for one of those southern waves to ride the baroclinic zone carved out. That's a good way to get a solid, cold smoke in this pattern.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If we put these forecasted departures into January, we're looking at some memorable stuff in terms of cold. I still think we're gonna see flakes fly in December around these parts, but I'm not sure we'll see a lot in terms of accumulation. Whatever does fall will stick and stay around though. I'm rooting for one of those southern waves to ride the baroclinic zone carved out. That's a good way to get a solid, cold smoke in this pattern.

I think what is even more impressive is the amount of negative departures we are already consistently seeing at range. Quite often we see these departures increase as it nears in time as more members fall into place. Though in this case I don't think it will be to the degree that we typically see because the EPS seems pretty locked in on this look.

[WxUSAF]

20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I think what is even more impressive is the amount of negative departures we are already consistently seeing at range. Quite often we see these departures increase as it nears in time as more members fall into place. Though in this case I don't think it will be to the degree that we typically see because the EPS seems pretty locked in on this look.

Yeah, this is very impressive for a D15 temp anomaly.  

[showmethesnow]

47 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The ens sure have a NS dominant, fast flow look overall. There is some ridging over GL at times, so its possible things could slow down and the trough could sharpen at some point, allowing for some southern stream energy to get more involved. Just sort of a wait and see. Other than the wave behind the mid-late week front reappearing, we likely will have to score something with a clipper. Plenty of shortwaves will be diving down, so hopefully we get one to sharpen and slide underneath.

Yeah, I can definitely see the NS overwhelming everything. My biggest concern overall at this point is seeing that pv placed to far south where everything gets squashed. Can score some quick hitting clippers but for the most part everything else is off the table. But we keep that pv far enough to the north and I actually like the possibilities. You know me, I am a glass half sort of guy who is optimist when it comes to snow no matter what. How else do you explain me tracking into early April through last years dismal winter after all.  

But when I look at the jets and see an active southern running the south and poking its nose up into the southeast, occasionally straying even farther north, gives me hope. Add in we are are seeing a northern jet that is quite often just to the north if not merging with the southern anywhere from the central to the eastern us. What it boils down to in my mind is where the northern jet actually meets up with the southern as energy drops down from the NS. Now if the jets are meeting up towards the east then short of strong WAR going on at that point that is pretty much a no go for us with any possible phasing of NS and SS energy. But if we see this occur farther to the west then we have a decent shot of NS energy catching up and dropping into any southern stream energy. And with the pv in place for the most part blocking amplifying systems from going to far to the west it gives us a pretty broad window for any possible phase to occur without to much fear of it riding up to our west.

But nailing down where these two jets are meeting at any given time and/or where any possible energy may be is almost a fruitless task as I see the wide differences on these features from run to run. As I said in a previous post I don't think we will have the luxury of the models locking onto something (except favorable windows) at range and am half expecting to see our possibly storms pop up with little notice.

[showmethesnow]

Just an FYI. 06z GEFS has seen a decent uptick with the general overall snowfall profile for our region at range compared to the the 00Z. Also the roughly 3 day period after the front passage has picked up somewhat on the means but the look on the individual members is actually much more promising over the previous run.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Yeah, I can definitely see the NS overwhelming everything. My biggest concern overall at this point is seeing that pv placed to far south where everything gets squashed. Can score some quick hitting clippers but for the most part everything else is off the table. But we keep that pv far enough to the north and I actually like the possibilities. You know me, I am a glass half sort of guy who is optimist when it comes to snow no matter what. How else do you explain me tracking into early April through last years dismal winter after all.  

But when I look at the jets and see an active southern running the south and poking its nose up into the southeast, occasionally straying even farther north, gives me hope. Add in we are are seeing a northern jet that is quite often just to the north if not merging with the southern anywhere from the central to the eastern us. What it boils down to in my mind is where the northern jet actually meets up with the southern as energy drops down from the NS. Now if the jets are meeting up towards the east then short of strong WAR going on at that point that is pretty much a no go for us with any possible phasing of NS and SS energy. But if we see this occur farther to the west then we have a decent shot of NS energy catching up and dropping into any southern stream energy. And with the pv in place for the most part blocking amplifying systems from going to far to the west it gives us a pretty broad window for any possible phase to occur without to much fear of it riding up to our west.

But nailing down where these two jets are meeting at any given time and/or where any possible energy may be is almost a fruitless task as I see the wide differences on these features from run to run. As I said in a previous post I don't think we will have the luxury of the models locking onto something (except favorable windows) at range and am half expecting to see our possibly storms pop up with little notice.

I think the fact we are seeing the greater anomalies out in the N PAC epo region up into the ao region as opposed to a pig NAO block could be our savior. NAO too strong is gonna displace the PV farther S squashing storms as per your concern. However, the LR ens are pretty much neutral to slightly negative on the NAO which eventually relaxes the PV back into Hudson Bay where it will likely be a mean parking spot majority of winter give or take some teleconnection fluxes. I like where we sit and the look of a blended eps/gefs way out in the LR with a more neutral NAO and PV in a better spot and not parked over the Great Lakes.

[showmethesnow]

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

55 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

I think the fact we are seeing the greater anomalies out in the N PAC epo region up into the ao region as opposed to a pig NAO block could be our savior. NAO too strong is gonna displace the PV farther S squashing storms as per your concern. However, the LR ens are pretty much neutral to slightly negative on the NAO which eventually relaxes the PV back into Hudson Bay where it will likely be a mean parking spot majority of winter give or take some teleconnection fluxes. I like where we sit and the look of a blended eps/gefs way out in the LR with a more neutral NAO and PV in a better spot and not parked over the Great Lakes.

What I find somewhat humorous is I spent all of the fall hammering on the fact that we would probably need to see a strong west based -NAO to have any hope of producing this winter with a weak/moderate Nina incoming. And yet here we are just entering winter and Mother Nature is already telling me how wrong I could be. That didn't take long.

And I agree, with what we are currently seeing with such a strong +PNA you run the risk of bridging forming forcing the pv southward if we do see a strong/west based -NAO. I had brought this up in regards to what I saw with the overnight EPS and what it had shown. But that is not a concern at this point per your comments above. I do think we do want to see a -NAO, though weak and/or centrally, east based. It gives us a better pattern setup at mid-latitudes as it waxes and wanes giving lateral movement (north/south) to the pv that often drives our bigger storms as it withdraws northward. 

All in all, there are no complaints with what we are seeing on the models on my part. To my mind we are moving into an extended, quite possibly very extended, period of time where we will have almost continuous cold and opportunities popping up every few days. Now whether those opportunities are of the clipper style and/or possible bigger ticket items that has yet to be determined.

[mitchnick]

I know it's good, but maybe one of the mets can better explain. 10mb and 30mb 10 day maps off last night's Euro show a strong High/Block over Alaska.  I assume that makes maintaining a 500mb ridge/block there easier, but I could be wrong.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that the displaced PV looks nice too.

 

 

[Yeoman]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

For giggles, current CFS2 temps (top) and precip (bottom) for January. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2017120112&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2017120112&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

Kiss of death

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest Mrefs ...this is just 1 time stamp but definitely some ensemble support .

I think the shortwave per Gfs  at around  hour 156 -168 is definitely worth watching to see how that evolves as we near. It's been looking pretty stout at times on ops .

Link

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html

This is why I am not giving up on a follow up wave...I’m going down with the ship Like on the titanic

[CAPE]

Snippet from Mount Holly AFD this morning-

We continue our stair step into an early winter with numerous
shortwaves and weak areas of low pressure with a northwest flow
to close out the week. Any one of these features may spark off
some rain/snow showers or even develop into a bigger miller-B
type storm. A lot of uncertainty as we head toward next
weekend.

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Kiss of death

Don't worry.  It'll be different later today or tomorrow. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I know it's good, but maybe one of the mets can better explain. 10mb and 30mb 10 day maps off last night's Euro show a strong High/Block over Alaska.  I assume that makes maintaining a 500mb ridge/block there easier, but I could be wrong.

EDIT: Forgot to mention that the displaced PV looks nice too.

At this time of year, Stratospheric warming events become -AO with 30-35 day lag. It's like 21/28. Meaning, this is a January -AO signal. 

[showmethesnow]

See where this goes but the 126hr GFS is developing a distinct shortwave riding down the trough.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

See where this goes but the 126hr GFS is developing a distinct shortwave riding down the trough.

Looks like a bit of a wave on the front..not sure if it can do much before getting shunted out though.

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like a bit of a wave on the front..not sure if it can do much before getting shunted out though.

Kind of following it through and the overall look has improved with trough placement, sharpness, tilt, energy rotating through. Not sure it would be enough but baby steps....