December 2017 Long Range Disco

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

transient pattern

Like we prefer some of our posters to be.

[GATECH]

13 minutes ago, iFred said:

Winter cancel. I guess I’ll just stop having hope for any cold weather. Thanks Chuck!

 

Real talk though, as someone who only observed 2009-10 from the other coast, how did January hold out? I’m gone between December 20th and January 3rd and have this sinking feeling I’m going to miss out on he goods.

After snowmaggedon on Dec 19, January was a reload month in 2010, and boy did it reload.  We had a little clipper, maybe laid down an inch on Jan 8, then end of month early feb came some appetizers to the main course....check out this link.  For a summary.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/12/03/looking-back-on-winter-2009-10-an-unusually-early-snowfall-sets-the-stage-for-a-historic-season/?utm_term=.00a735341564

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

@C.A.P.E.  You wouldn't mind giving the link for that would you?  Pretty clean and easier to view than...

 

I copied it out of this excellent read:

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/Dec1989.pdf

[broken024]

Can you post those including Carolinas please?

[poolz1]

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I copied it out of this excellent read:

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/Dec1989.pdf

Thanks....It was a good read/skim.  What a flip!  Notice the trough in the Kara Sea during Dec....That's my weenie reasoning that this year is totally diff.

[Bob Chill]

The gap between Dec 20th and Jan 30th during 09-10 was pretty damn boring. Technically it was a white Christmas that year but that's  only because the snow was deep enough to survive a warm rainstorm on Christmas day.  Lol.

The late Jan storm snuck up at the last minute so we really didn't track it all that much. Most including me wrote off that event and expected a whiff to the south. But it ended up being a cold powder bomb. I remember driving around during the heavy snow and it was 15 degrees in the middle of the afternoon. 

Feb was back to back mayhem of course but the switch flipped and winter was over. We got teased with the late Feb event. For a record breaking winter, 09-10 was overall pretty boring from a tracking standpoint.

13-14 will probably hold the crown for the most interesting winter ever in my book until I'm dead. That one started early and never let up. There was always something to track even if it didn't work out. The tighty spaced events in Feb/Mar wore me the hell out. I didn't get a good night's sleep for a month. My body was trained to wake up at 1am for the euro (and that's if I fell asleep before that which was rare). I can honeslty say when April hit in 2014 I was kinda glad it was over in some ways. 

[osfan24]

I remember the middle to latter part of January of 2010 being active. I felt like we got a bunch of overperforming events that lead up to the back-to-back blizzards.

[Bob Chill]

Hard to say how it goes this year. Dec is looking great of course but it could flip on us at some point and never come back. My guess is the blocking pattern holds for at least 6-8 weeks. It started a week or so ago so we have to potential into early/mid Jan based on previous similar blocking events. Impossible to know of course. Just thinking about previous blocking episodes. 10-11 flipped after the Psu storm and never came back. 02-03 flipped in late Jan but the snow kept coming anyways.

Previous winters with strong Dec blocking show a fairly equal split of flips with no return or reloads during the back half of winter. One thing that would up our chances for reload or consistent blocking would be a SSW or PV split. Not seeing that yet but I have a hunch if the crazy HP showing up near the pole could do some of that dirty work. Would he nice to see a solid strat responce during Dec. Right now it's all in the trop.

Snow always requirers luck. To beat climo we likely have to score in Dec while things are ripe. Something we didn't do in 10-11. The northern stream action on the ops right now gives me some pause but my gut is telling me this Dec performs. We're sorta due for that and it feels right. But we have a knack for sucking with northern stream stuff. Hopefully the gulf connection on the ensembles is real (and it's not rain).

[gymengineer]

39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The gap between Dec 20th and Jan 30th during 09-10 was pretty damn boring. Technically it was a white Christmas that year but that's  only because the snow was deep enough to survive a warm rainstorm on Christmas day.  Lol.

The late Jan storm snuck up at the last minute so we really didn't track it all that much. Most including me wrote off that event and expected a whiff to the south. But it ended up being a cold powder bomb. I remember driving around during the heavy snow and it was 15 degrees in the middle of the afternoon. 

Feb was back to back mayhem of course but the switch flipped and winter was over. We got teased with the late Feb event. For a record breaking winter, 09-10 was overall pretty boring from a tracking standpoint.

13-14 will probably hold the crown for the most interesting winter ever in my book until I'm dead. That one started early and never let up. There was always something to track even if it didn't work out. The tighty spaced events in Feb/Mar wore me the hell out. I didn't get a good night's sleep for a month. My body was trained to wake up at 1am for the euro (and that's if I fell asleep before that which was rare). I can honeslty say when April hit in 2014 I was kinda glad it was over in some ways. 

The behavior of 09/10 was one of the more classic Nino seasons we can experience. 86/87 would have been much much worse than 09/10 for this subforum. And 57/58 would have been as desperate as that between early December and mid-February. That’s not considering the 83/83 strong Nino rhythm (panic after the early December event until we get into February). 02/03 was pretty spread out, but there were still lull periods claiming almost all of January.

That’s always the tension with favorable Nino’s— huge storms but lots of space in between. 

81/82 was a classically active DC winter with lots to track through peak season but no 12”+ event. 13/14 was an extreme version of an active season— even without a 12” event at DCA.

[Ralph Wiggum]

But Chuck says it is transient? I am so confused. 

I think he means the current pattern, not the arctic cold one coming. That one locks in for a while....tons of support for that.

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The gap between Dec 20th and Jan 30th during 09-10 was pretty damn boring. Technically it was a white Christmas that year but that's  only because the snow was deep enough to survive a warm rainstorm on Christmas day.  Lol.

The late Jan storm snuck up at the last minute so we really didn't track it all that much. Most including me wrote off that event and expected a whiff to the south. But it ended up being a cold powder bomb. I remember driving around during the heavy snow and it was 15 degrees in the middle of the afternoon. 

Feb was back to back mayhem of course but the switch flipped and winter was over. We got teased with the late Feb event. For a record breaking winter, 09-10 was overall pretty boring from a tracking standpoint.

13-14 will probably hold the crown for the most interesting winter ever in my book until I'm dead. That one started early and never let up. There was always something to track even if it didn't work out. The tighty spaced events in Feb/Mar wore me the hell out. I didn't get a good night's sleep for a month. My body was trained to wake up at 1am for the euro (and that's if I fell asleep before that which was rare). I can honeslty say when April hit in 2014 I was kinda glad it was over in some ways. 

Your best line for 13-14 was that the atmosphere could fart and it would snow! 

[BristowWx]

26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

But Chuck says it is transient? I am so confused. 


 

I think he means the current pattern, not the arctic cold one coming. That one locks in for a while....tons of support for that.

CPC call for Dec is bullish..haven’t seen a monthly outlook so BN for a long time. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, BristowWx said:

CPC call for Dec is bullish..haven’t seen a monthly outlook so BN for a long time. 

Not sure it's uber bullish.  There's broad consensus from the reliable global OP/ENS guidance and we're now in the <150HR range.

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

NPZ was probably mowing grass on Christmas

Not that year.  We had multiple snows before Christmas, including Thanksgiving.  First half of December was incredible.

[BristowWx]

I feel like a white Xmas is solid this year.  WSW on Dec 24...wouldn’t ask for anything else ever 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

I feel like a white Xmas is solid this year.  WSW on Dec 24...wouldn’t ask for anything else ever 

Just gotta cover the grass and it's legit...give everyone a 6" - 10" paste job.

[yoda]

Its a miss for us... but thats alot of h5 energy around Day 6-8 on the 00z GFS

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Dec 89 is what we want.  That’s the gold standard.  Not sure if that is possible.  

Late 1989 was cool, 3 inches snow near Thanksgiving, and then 8 inches snow on Dec 6 and 6 inches on Dec 13 I think it was. SHWEET snowpack.

It was an incredible time as long as you dont think about very late Dec, and Jan-Feb 1990.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

The latest MJO spread went from neutral to a more cyclonic rogue look towards the end of the chart...all in the last week!

 

 

[BristowWx]

It wants to snow on the 15th..again

[yoda]

GFS just likes the 15th of Dec so much

Would be a sig snowstorm verbatim

[yoda]

There's another snowstorm in the making at the end of the run as well... might be suppressed some with that 1042 H in MN but damn... the Day 10-15 00z GFS is tasty

[BristowWx]

It’s just freakin cold..serious cold at the end.  Epic is the word..the only word.  

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s just freakin cold..serious cold at the end.  Epic is the word..the only word.  

For posterity

 

 

 

[Jebman]

25 minutes ago, yoda said:

For posterity

 

 

 

EPIC, EPIC jebwalk weather!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'd happily go out with a SOAKED TSHIRT and time how long the wet tshirt takes to freeze lmao!

[pasnownut]

43 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Man..this look has possible mecs written over it. 

Yeah that sure is a great look for sure. 

 

Nut

[Cobalt]

13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah that sure is a great look for sure. 

 

Nut

Yup. Exciting runs ahead! 

[SnowGoose69]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Hard to say how it goes this year. Dec is looking great of course but it could flip on us at some point and never come back. My guess is the blocking pattern holds for at least 6-8 weeks. It started a week or so ago so we have to potential into early/mid Jan based on previous similar blocking events. Impossible to know of course. Just thinking about previous blocking episodes. 10-11 flipped after the Psu storm and never came back. 02-03 flipped in late Jan but the snow kept coming anyways.

Previous winters with strong Dec blocking show a fairly equal split of flips with no return or reloads during the back half of winter. One thing that would up our chances for reload or consistent blocking would be a SSW or PV split. Not seeing that yet but I have a hunch if the crazy HP showing up near the pole could do some of that dirty work. Would he nice to see a solid strat responce during Dec. Right now it's all in the trop.

Snow always requirers luck. To beat climo we likely have to score in Dec while things are ripe. Something we didn't do in 10-11. The northern stream action on the ops right now gives me some pause but my gut is telling me this Dec performs. We're sorta due for that and it feels right. But we have a knack for sucking with northern stream stuff. Hopefully the gulf connection on the ensembles is real (and it's not rain).

The fact it's a La Niña leads me to believe it's flipping at some point in January.  Whether or not it comes back is anyone's guess but historically La Niñas usually do not after they flip on you.  00-01 if I remember right came back in late Feb and March after getting fairly mild after 1/25 for awhile.  95-96 I kept waiting for it to happen and was sure when we went mild mid January it was all over but it came back big time.  I usually feel better about neutrals or Ninos that are cold early going back cold if they go mild for awhile.  

[Cobalt]

Frigid highs as per the GEFS

 

[showmethesnow]

5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

8 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

But Chuck says it is transient? I am so confused. 


 

I think he means the current pattern, not the arctic cold one coming. That one locks in for a while....tons of support for that.

Sadly I believe he means the blocking with the arctic cold. He has been on that kick for a few days now despite the building evidence otherwise. You never know so he could be right but at this point with what I have seen from him you almost have to believe he is trolling more then anything else.