frd Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Operational Euro looked like it was trying to breakdown the North Pacific pattern toward the end of the run, which is in contrast to the GFS/GEFS/EPS. Has a lot more troughing over Alaska and a much weaker west coast ridge than the other models. I actually thought the EPS was trending stronger and stronger with the ridging the last couple days , wonder why the OP is doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Operational Euro looked like it was trying to breakdown the North Pacific pattern toward the end of the run, which is in contrast to the GFS/GEFS/EPS. Has a lot more troughing over Alaska and a much weaker west coast ridge than the other models. I dont much care what an op run shows at LR when the EPS has a long wave pattern that is locked in and pretty much drool worthy through day 15 I might be a tad more concerned about the GEFS retrograding the long wave pattern some though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS has a lot of precip in D10-15 and keeps temps cold. Long wave pattern is rock stable. Great to hear. Steady as she goes. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 People who have access to the EPS members should see if there’s a rainy signal around D12 like the GEFS. GEFS mean does hint at it, but I don’t see anything like that on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 weatherbell really sucks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: weatherbell really sucks lol Tell me about it. Are there actually some people panicking? SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nice jump on the Eps snowfall mean for the fropa Right after the passage or a day or two later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Right after the passage or a day or two later? I cant get anything until day 11 on weatherbell. The 15 day mean looks nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I cant get anything until day 11 on weatherbell. The 15 day mean looks nice though. Others finally popped up. That is a nice looking mean. Substantial uptick from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Didnt look close but went from nothing to 1-1.5" thru Thurday mornin. Glanced myself and looks as if much of the uptick is associated with post frontal and not some energy rotating in a day or two later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: It looks like some members are popping a ripple of low pressure along the frontal boundary I haven’t totally given up On that yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 I’m okay with this look on the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I’m okay with this look I'm good with the entire run. Near perfect trough axis for cold and storms here. We'll likely get the cold...storms are always elusive suns of beeeoytches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I haven’t totally given up On that yet When I see the trough pulling northward with a negative tilt shortly after the front I have to believe that there is an opportunity for something to develop on the front or drop in from the west a day or two later. If that is the case that may be something that pops up just a few days before the fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Everyone ready for the daily 18z cold rain bomb from the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 Seriously man...this is one heck of a 5 day mean during any time in met winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm good with the entire run. Near perfect trough axis for cold and storms here. We'll likely get the cold...storms are always elusive suns of beeeoytches Yeah, honestly this is the first full run of the EPS I’ve looked in great detail yet this winter; certainly got me excited. I’d rather roll the dice with storms when we have cold in place. Too many times we’ve had a storm but sat at 35/rain. I’d be shocked if we go into January with 0.0” on the board. (Ducks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: When I see the trough pulling northward with a negative tilt shortly after the front I have to believe that there is an opportunity for something to develop on the front or drop in from the west a day or two later. If that is the case that may be something that pops up just a few days before the fact. I can’t see maps but I’m liking what you guys r selling. Need some help from southern steam if we want to go BIGer with storms but I’m guessing most would be giddy with bundles of energy from the north every couple days. Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Weekend clipper is pretty far south compared to last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Pretty nice shortwave dropping down at hr 162 on Happy Hour GFS. Clipper time! Probably too far north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Pretty healthy snow swath from the clipper potential next week. We just need it to head about 300 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Yea ...Thru 15 made a real nice jump Could you post this? I believe EPS Mean is allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 EPS ensemble: EPS mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: EPS ensemble: EPS mean: E44!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Haha. I know we're desperate because we want an early winter, but it's funny getting excited over a single member of a 51 member ensemble at 16 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, supernovasky said: EPS ensemble: EPS mean: On the individual city listing eps snowfall, it has Bwi at only 2" and not 3" as depicted on that bottom map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 What do we need for that clipper not to make that hard left turn to the wreck of the Edmund Fitgerald? The front to clear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: What do we need for that clipper not to make that hard left turn to the wreck of the Edmund Fitgerald? The front to clear? It's a strong upper level vort that is sucking all the weaker ones into it. Maybe we get lucky and it becomes our 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Cue the Jaws music https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017120118&fh=252&xpos=0&ypos=0 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017120118&fh=252&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Cue the Jaws music https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017120118&fh=252&xpos=0&ypos=0 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017120118&fh=252&xpos=0&ypos=0 Its a nothing really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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