Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 Hmmm...I just went back and looked at last nights EPS run...good support for blocked flow and 50/50 late in the run. This is a sweet mslp panel for bigger storms. It's going to be a long 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Hmmm...I just went back and looked at last nights EPS run...good support for blocked flow and 50/50 late in the run. This is a sweet mslp panel for bigger storms. It's going to be a long 2 weeks. Long as in a good way I'm assuming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like a quick wave flies up the front as the cold front goes past us turning the rain to snow late Wednesday and then bring a quick hitting 6 hr period of all snow for almost everyone overnight If I remember correctly, this scenario showed up on the GFS 2 or 3 days ago. As everyone knows, we need to get that cold front through the area first so that we can get some clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Hmmm...I just went back and looked at last nights EPS run...good support for blocked flow and 50/50 late in the run. This is a sweet mslp panel for bigger storms. It's going to be a long 2 weeks. The hp at HL is something we've all mostly been looking at but that string of slp weakness and lower pressure from the 50/50 along the stj all the way to Hawaii with that HL blocking is drool worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 GFS through end of run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, supernovasky said: GFS through end of run Yep...bullseye near my house...ops normal..this is too much fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 42 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 5 days after the frontal passage That is the most believable map posted yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hmmm...I just went back and looked at last nights EPS run...good support for blocked flow and 50/50 late in the run. This is a sweet mslp panel for bigger storms. It's going to be a long 2 weeks. Yes it is. I think I’ll be ignoring my conference entirely on the 11th-14th because we’re going to be tracking a short term threat. We all just need to be patient. Next weekend has a shot at some flakes, but probably mood flakes from a week clipper. Anything bigger is a pretty big long shot, but not off the table yet. But the week after looks full of possibilities. I’m really liking the overrunning type scenarios that the GFS is throwing out. Fantasyland, for sure, but damn we’re overdue for some gulf moisture to ride up over entrenched arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 GEFS also likes the Dec 16 timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yes it is. I think I’ll be ignoring my conference entirely on the 11th-14th because we’re going to be tracking a short term threat. We all just need to be patient. Next weekend has a shot at some flakes, but probably mood flakes from a week clipper. Anything bigger is a pretty big long shot, but not off the table yet. But the week after looks full of possibilities. I’m really liking the overrunning type scenarios that the GFS is throwing out. Fantasyland, for sure, but damn we’re overdue for some gulf moisture to ride up over entrenched arctic air. Very stong sig for just that for on the 14th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 I'd be curious to see what the GEFS Mean snowfall is now. Seems to be increasing with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Very stong sig for just that for on the 14th Giggity Giggity. Just needs to hold off until about 9pm on the 14th so I’m Home and not stuck. Make it happen, bob! Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: I'd be curious to see what the GEFS Mean snowfall is now. Seems to be increasing with each run. You would be right. Upped by a couple tenths of an inch. Pretty commendable through day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 I acutally like panels like this better than a giant blue ball overhead. This is a really good look for active weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: I acutally like panels like this better than a giant blue ball overhead. This is a really good look for active weather. RR will be in here pronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Eyeballing off the TT maps but looks like over 1”+ QPF post-front through end of run on GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: RR will be in here pronto. It was an intentional lob. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Anyone got the GEFS Snow mean through 384? Hopefully this number will continue to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: It's entirely predicated on the preceding storm phasing into a blocking beast. Interesting run but the uber d14-15 fantasy only exists because the d11-12 fantasy goes nuts near the 50/50 region. Doesn't hurt that there's a 1061hp almost dead center over the pole either. That has to be a -4 AO or lower. lol For entertainment, that 999mb low at 360hrs is 932mb at 384hrs!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 GEFS member plots paint more of a rainy picture than snowy one d10+. Some are close to snow but others are straight rainstorms with no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I acutally like panels like this better than a giant blue ball overhead. This is a really good look for active weather. amazing winter so far....now we have to hope we get our first flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS member plots paint more of a rainy picture than snowy one d10+. Some are close to snow but others are straight rainstorms with no chance. Calling Chuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Ji said: amazing winter so far....now we have to hope we get our first flake So you're saying that right now at this point in time you're in right? I need to count the days before you cancel. Might be a record this year if things go down as advertised. I calculated your average date of official cancel and it's usually in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: So you're saying that right now at this point in time you're in right? I need to count the days before you cancel. Might be a record this year if things go down as advertised. I calculated your average date of official cancel and it's usually in October. oh i cancelled months ago with the JMA and CFSv2 had us in dark reds for Dec,Jan and Feb lol. I am looking for something that would make me winter cancel cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: So you're saying that right now at this point in time you're in right? I need to count the days before you cancel. Might be a record this year if things go down as advertised. I calculated your average date of official cancel and it's usually in October. decisions of being in or not should always be made post Euro...I would defer until 3 pm or so. you mentioning D10+ looking more wet than white certainly sounds less than perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Calling Chuck! I’d not yell too loud as luck has bye and large been in his side (whoever he is lately??) no matter the outcome this is shaping up to be a highly unproductive time for us trackers. Bob I like the look but see more potential for northern energy to ride under us more than a true phaser. I won’t complain either way but am just pointing out an Ob’s. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I’d not yell too loud as luck has bye and large been in his side (whoever he is lately??) no matter the outcome this is shaping up to be a highly unproductive time for us trackers. Bob I like the look but see more potential for northern energy to ride under us more than a true phaser. I won’t complain either way but am just pointing out an Ob’s. Nut do yourself a favor and don't take Leesburg's bait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: do yourself a favor and don't take Leesburg's bait Agreed Mitch. I’m not, but I also am good enough with math and early dec patterns/climo and they alone say it’s tough to snow let alone snow upon snow as portrayed by some models. No matter how we fail....it’s still failure. Continuity is all we can hope for, and so far hope is alive and well. Going to be fun. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Agreed Mitch. I’m not, but I also am good enough with math and early dec patterns/climo and they alone say it’s tough to snow let alone snow upon snow as portrayed by some models. No matter how we fail....it’s still failure. Continuity is all we can hope for, and so far hope is alive and well. Going to be fun. Nut wth have we failed at YET? the future? this is going to be a long winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Is it just me... or does the 12z EURO h5 at 168 look... interesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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