ErinInTheSky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Total snowfall on GFS through end of run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 I love the snow hole on that map just over Prince Frederick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 15 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Total snowfall on GFS through end of run: The more SE you go the more snow falls. It's got to be cold to do that, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 I would like to see the CFS2 right on its December precip forecast from today's run, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 thru 114 hrs., GFS won't look as good as yesterday's run (I don't think), but should be better than every run since after front is through more energy behind it, but not as good as yesterday's 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: thru 114 hrs., GFS won't look as good as yesterday's run (I don't think), but should be better than every run since after front is through more energy behind it, but not as good as yesterday's 12z I noticed the more energy part. Potentially a trend, but still pretty far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 meh....at 138 hrs, it flattens out https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017120112&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=422 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I noticed the more energy part. Potentially a trend, but still pretty far out doesn't look that impressive to me at 500. lots of energy but not sharp enough to generate anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 The 2nd vort after the front closes off on the 12z run. That's at least different from the prior couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 I'm not looking for a big southern stream storm. I'd be happy if one of those clippers can produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'm not looking for a big southern stream storm. I'd be happy if one of those clippers can produce. Realistically clippers are probably the best shot at getting some snow in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Realistically clippers are probably the best shot at getting some snow in the next 10 days. I don't know exactly how this works but it seems the trough needs to be carved out quite deep for one to get under us. this appears we are just on the cold downslope flow with no moisture to tap. gulf is cut off. the cold we got in spades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 doesn't look that impressive to me at 500. lots of energy but not sharp enough to generate anything CMC has a better energetic look in fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 late sunday and monday the GFS may be interesting...i still think this is the time to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I don't know exactly how this works but it seems the trough needs to be carved out quite deep for one to get under us. this appears we are just on the cold downslope flow with no moisture to tap. gulf is cut off. the cold we got in spades Not necessarily. Spacing is important. Something on the heels has a better chance than something several days behind....otoh...something trailing several days can do all sorts of things depending on all sorts of things. lol Cold front is coming Wed. We know that for certain. Anafront snow is fools gold. WxUSAF has pointed that out several times but any model showing accum snow on the backside of the front should be tossed. That's not a way we get snow here. I suppose it could snow from the sky for a couple hours if everything lined up but the chances of anything sticking are zero in my mind. I'm sure most agree. Behind the front gets really muddy. Subtle changes make big differences down the line. We're just going to have to wait for 3 days or so before we write off or latch onto a threat behind the front. Even if the gfs or euro showed something sweet today, tonight, or tomorrow, it will look completely different next run etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 The 5 days after the frontal passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 21 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'm not looking for a big southern stream storm. I'd be happy if one of those clippers can produce. Of course, if the southern stream was to cooperate, I'd certainly take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 5 days after the frontal passage Like red wine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 Fantasyland...lol...but seeing a general setup that supports a triple phaser is always post worthy. It doesn't work out on the run but if I saw a vort panel similar to this inside of 7 days it would grab my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 i know everyone is frantically checking every run for signs of the big one but its a waste IMO. Let the pattern get here and then see. Too much depends on how that goes. said this a couple days ago. Just gimme the cold air and if we clipper our way to climo then i'll be just as happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 Interestingly, the phase does happen just far to late. However, the phased storm becomes the block that allows the next fantasy storm to work in our favor. Of course neither event has any skill but it supports one of the many ways that something can work out for us after the front next week. It kinda has the feel that we are entering a period where ops are going to relentlessly tease the hell out of us. Even though we can't take anything specific seriously, we can feel good that the upcoming pattern has many ways were it can work instead of the typical thread the needle one and done type of chance we often see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 That day 14-15 storm looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Day 5-6 on 12z CMC is lol... 2-3" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: That day 14-15 storm looks awesome. It's entirely predicated on the preceding storm phasing into a blocking beast. Interesting run but the uber d14-15 fantasy only exists because the d11-12 fantasy goes nuts near the 50/50 region. Doesn't hurt that there's a 1061hp almost dead center over the pole either. That has to be a -4 AO or lower. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 look at the 2m/850 neg departure temps at hour 384. I know its way out there but wow...just wow...and the sick -AO...at least I think that's what it is showing at 500mb same timeframe...not sure how low but it looks like a beast even at that late timestamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's entirely predicated on the preceding storm phasing into a blocking beast. Interesting run but the uber d14-15 fantasy only exists because the d11-12 fantasy goes nuts near the 50/50 region. Doesn't hurt that there's a 1061hp almost dead center over the pole either. That has to be a -4 AO or lower. lol Lol, oh yeah, absolutely. I'm more just watching the trends in the ensembles and the "totals" over the period than any particular system. I think its clear from these runs that we are entering a pretty conducive period up to the 15th for some decent December snow. Hopefully this beats my experience last year, my first year being here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 For folks chasing a big storm, keep an eye on the ens MSLP panels and see if any consensus builds for some sort of 50/50 down the line. That's the single most important feature in the vast majority of our big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 That day 14-15 storm looks awesome.The 384 hr GFS almost always looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Day 5-6 on 12z CMC is lol... 2-3" snow Looks like a quick wave flies up the front as the cold front goes past us turning the rain to snow late Wednesday and then bring a quick hitting 6 hr period of all snow for almost everyone from 00z to 06z THUR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, H2O said: i know everyone is frantically checking every run for signs of the big one but its a waste IMO. Let the pattern get here and then see. Too much depends on how that goes. said this a couple days ago. Just gimme the cold air and if we clipper our way to climo then i'll be just as happy. Exactly. We're still looking from the outside in. It took until the cold was just about established to know that we were in for a big snowstorm in 2016, but we knew that the pattern was there about 2 weeks before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.