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December 2017 Long Range Disco

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted
Just now, losetoa6 said:

I remember being glued to  TWC during the 93 Superstorm . That's was good times

I grew up in the sticks...I remember being at a friend's house who just got cable. Weather 24/7! Are you kidding me!

My weather source was Bob Ryan and my NOAA radio..

 

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Awesome..wasn't it. I was also glued during Hugo 89' 

I remember that one like it was yesterday.  I also remember the 96 blizzard.  I made a home movie about it.  I remember my dad making us shovel the snow every couple of hours to keep the driveway clear only to wake up the next morning with 25 inches on it...lol.  I was living in Eldersburg at that time.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Which takes us through 1/15/18. Memories of 12/76-1/77. I just hope we get more snow than that winter if it's going to be even close to being that cold.

Don' think I will ever experience such a cold winter again in my lifetime. The one vivid thing I remember, besides the bay freezing over was the wind. It seemed like the whole winter we were dealing with a NW wind that never abated. And not talking gentle breezes but strong bone chilling winds. Don't know if it exists but I would be curious what the average wind chills were for that winter and would not be surprised if no winter since came close.

 

8 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

CanSIPS are a disaster lol.

I believe they are lost. Or maybe the better models are all wrong.

 

eta- actually its not that far off for Dec. Has the right look up top.

The GFS has hinted on occasion recently about the strong SW trough/SER though I believe mostly on the off runs. Looking at the overall pattern it wouldn't surprise me to see it if the blocking over Greenland breaks down. Think it would probably be somewhat temporary in nature if it did occur because I think odds would favor a rebuilding of the blocking around Greenland which would force the trough axis eastward.

 

8 hours ago, BristowWx said:

All I am taking away from the LR as of now is a less pronounced WAR.  I’m obsessed with it mainly because every other thing looks so good.  I noticed that the further SE it is the  temp anomaly is less negative.  I know we need it somewhat but too much of a good thing can be bad 

I am all for it with the current setup being presented. With what looks to be a pv planted in SE Canada chances are pretty good we see the boundary set up on the coast for any storm. Not so good for coastal regions but normally good for those west of the bay as they are planted deep enough in the cold to score. Take that pv away......

 

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro weeklies are usually pretty conservative with mean snowfall. That's a good look. It's a significant improvement over the last run and that wasn't a bad run either. 

Looking at the 5 day increments it is nice to see the whole mid-Atlantic through the NE see snow chances throughout the whole period. Never get too hung up on snowfall totals in the extended (EPS) nor the hyper extended (Weeklies). My bigger concern is to actually see if certain patterns being presented are actually conducive for snow in the longer ranges. The only time I start paying attention to amounts is when we actually have a discrete event locked in which is typically under 5-7 days.

 

5 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

In hindsight, the pattern may be too perfect, thus yielding non-events. Meridional flows do not always deliver, a wider trough is actually better for region-wide impacts and Miller As. Most will not pick up on the subtle difference unless you are well-versed in atmospheric science.

You are always such a ray of sunshine. Pattern is too perfect. No snow for you. Pattern is not perfect enough. No snow for you. Cold Pattern is wrong, torch city for you Baby. No snow for you. Torch pattern is right. No snow for you. Global warming is real. Death, Doom, Destruction. No snow for you. Shock the He!! out all of us and take the con position on the snowfall/no snowfall debate and show us you may actually know a little bit. Otherwise no one will take you serious whatsoever and view you as nothing more then a warmister troll.

As far as the broad trough I have heard mentioned several times over the last few days that would limit our chances, I think that is a non-issue. Odds probably favor that the broad trough we are seeing is probably more a function of the smoothing that occurs when dealing with the ensembles more then anything else. What leads me to believe this is when I look at the op runs of the models. Now if we were seeing the ops throwing out solutions that were comprised of one solid consolidated pv feature that the ensembles show for the most part then yes that would be an issue and we would most likely see a broad through that the ensembles show. But the models aren't doing this. They are/have been for the most part showing multiple smaller discrete lobes rotating around a central point in Canada instead. These lobes would produce much sharper and smaller in scale troughs rotating through the east. What I believe is happening is that the ensembles are having timing issues with these smaller discrete lobes and their associated troughs as they rotate through thus the smoothing is occurring showing a much broader trough. So instead of being concerned about the trough I actually think it is a boon for our snow chances because it will probably offer chances every 2/3 days as troughs rotate through and pull up as each lobe rotates through and retreats northward. 

 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

The overnight GEFS rotates the trough axis westward in the extended placing the trough into the southwest. This is probably in response to the blocking breaking down over Greenland at that time. This is short lived though (3-4 days) as it looks as if ridging and higher heights are again building into Greenland at the end of the run and we see the trough axis responding and shifting back to the east.. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The overnight GEFS rotates the trough axis westward in the extended placing the trough into the southwest. This is probably in response to the blocking breaking down over Greenland at that time. This is short lived though (3-4 days) as it looks as if ridging and higher heights are again building into Canada at the end of the run and we see the trough axis responding and shifting back to the east.. 

EPS shows signs of weakening the trough around day 12, but rebuilds it nicely by days 14.5-15. We're good. :)

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

EPS shows signs of weakening the trough around day 12, but rebuilds it nicely by days 14.5-15. We're good. :)

I actually like the EPS run overall, maybe more so then previous runs. Especially at the end of the run with what it suggests for past day 15. We are seeing ridging build better over Greenland and over top of the pv then we have seen on the last few runs. This would lead me to believe that the EPS likes the idea of the pv being a somewhat permanent feature for our neck of the woods and not just visiting for a short stay.

The overall N Hemi. blocking setup that the ESP has been advertising as well leads to believe that the pv will stay for an extended period of time. The ridging we see develop day 5/6 to the end of the run, up through Alaska, Greenland and Russia is a very stable pattern and can endure for a long period of time. It is also very resilient where a portion of it may break down at any given time but quickly be reestablished. This setup argues for the pv to stay planted as well. Like I said, I like what I see in the near term and I am getting somewhat enthused for the extended and beyond. But all this is dependent on the EPS being correct on its projections and I wouldn't bet good money on that.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

One thing is for sure.  It still ain't gonna be easy to get snow in our back yards even in this pattern. But I'd sure love to be proven wrong on that.

From what I am seeing on the models (good setup for an extended period of time) I like our chances at this time. Think we will have quite a few opportunities. But you know how opportunities and the mid-Atlantic work out. Not to well. But I tell you, if in fact this pattern the models are showing does verify and we still don't produce I won't be too down about it. Because I think this pattern actually bodes well for not only the first half of winter but possibly for the winter in its entirety.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

For those that don't have access to the EPS snowfall maps here is a quick rundown. Through the whole 15 day period we see an uptick. 12Z had the DC/Balt corridor solidly in the 1-1.5 range. 00Z now has them solidly in the 1.5-2 range. 2 inch line is now just NW of the cities where as on the 12z run it had it towards the panhandle of MD. About the only discrete event I see is post frontal passage (day 6-8) where the .5 inch line just NW of the corridor. Trace amounts extend through all of Md and VA except for the extreme SE portion of Va.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

I will take the lake runner on the 12th for the coastal on the 15th that the 6z GFS is showing

Still think the low rotating through the Midwest around day 7 is worth watching. Energy associated with it is related to the pv and we have the polar jet dropping underneath it. Not to mention that we also have the tropical jet running south through the gulf states up to off the SE coast. Would take a lot to get the tropical into play but a little deeper drop brings the polar into play. 

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

as currently depicted that potential event on 15th would be cold smoke wispy powder...not too common in these parts in December.  GEFS looks fine to this untrained eye.  The -EPO has migrated a bit north by 384 but it still a power house...GL looks fine to me.  Either the pattern is reloading or breaking down.  I think the first but someone smarter may say otherwise.  The WAR is still there.  Not in an awful position but still there.  Its not a boring pattern by any measure if it happens as currently depicted but the waiting is agonizing even though we know the later in Dec the better. 

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

06Z GEFS makes an half hearted attempt to pull the trough axis westward before shifting it back eastward. A casual glance suggests that the 00Z and now the 06z may be starting to key on the low rotating through the Midwest at roughly day 7. We are seeing a somewhat decent up tick in snow from from day 7 1/2 to 9 1/2 with both runs showing us picking up roughly 1.5 inches through the period which is an improvement over prior runs.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

The overnight GEFS rotates the trough axis westward in the extended placing the trough into the southwest. This is probably in response to the blocking breaking down over Greenland at that time. This is short lived though (3-4 days) as it looks as if ridging and higher heights are again building into Canada at the end of the run and we see the trough axis responding and shifting back to the east.. 

I have noticed the GEFS has been retrograding the longwave pattern in recent runs. I commented on it yesterday(no one noticed as they were all focused on the op run snow threats lol) You can see it more clearly looking at the N hemisphere view. 12z yesterday I believe it had the WAR +heights backing over the east coast at one point. Not sure what to make of it, and it seems to be temporary looking at the latest 2 runs. EPS does not appear to do this at all.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...Eps has shown that progression the past few runs . Just when it looks like it's pulling the trough ne around day 11-12 it retrogrades/ rebuilds  it back west  and improves GL hieghts as well. Maybe it just wants to be a cold snowy winter :rolleyes:

EPS (and the latest weeklies) suggest we are in for a prolonged cold period. We will have to see how the snow part goes. I am not worried at all, as if things go down close to what is being advertised, we would have to be pretty unlucky to not score at least a couple lighter events over the next 2-3 weeks. Otherwise I will head out to where snow is guaranteed in a pattern like this. :P

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

6z gfs has a snowstorm the same period as last night's EPS fwiw. ...very little,  I know

The range is obviously an issue but the gfs has been hitting that dec 14-16 period hard ever since it first came into range 72 hours ago. Has had something there almost every run. Now the EPS is hitting it too as it comes in range. Guidance seems to think something wants to come at us from the stj around there with cold in place. Never a bad thing. 

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