aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CanSucks is dead to me Chucksips model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Chucksips model I just spit out my water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 The only thing that the Cansips got consistently right in November was that ridge over and NW of Alaska. There were times in November's warm periods that it did well over the Conus, but that warm look was wrong in the means for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 46 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: lol... he's already in. Nobody excludes the Richmond folks, we just forget about them. Now those people in Northern Maryland... Anyways, so as not to make this post useless, here is a look at the Panasonic weeklies' mean snowfall. Not as high as I would have expected from the look, but the one major flaw in the weeklies seems to be they're a little dry. Euro weeklies are usually pretty conservative with mean snowfall. That's a good look. It's a significant improvement over the last run and that wasn't a bad run either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I look at it this way.... Luck is the most important factor in our snow chances. We've totally blown MANY good patterns. Even perfect ones. Luck odds improve with every day that passes when we're not in a shutout pattern. Think about the last 3 Decembers. The general H5 pattern offered little hope. Especially the last 2. We're entering this Dec with no shutout pattern in sight as far as the eye can see. For all we know the WAR (or insert the less than perfect feature) will actually contribute to having good luck. This time next week we enter what appears to be a prolonged period where it can snow. The only thing that can rattle me is staring at an approaching shutout pattern with nothing in the books. From what I'm seeing right now, it's going to be quite a while before we are at risk of a shutout pattern. Good times man. Enjoy it until there's nothing to enjoy. I can live with that. Every year I learn a little more. When we were slammed with the surprise in Jan 25 2000...I had no idea why. Made me mad. Since then I put my nose down and learned a lot. From alt.neweather to wright weather to eastern and now here. Knowledge is power but also can mean disappointment because you know way before regular people it won’t be a white Xmas and you have to tell non weather weenies in your family it won’t snow just because it’s December 25. That said, this upcoming pattern looks close to epic and I shall enjoy it as you prescribe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro weeklies are usually pretty conservative with mean snowfall. That's a good look. It's a significant improvement over the last run and that wasn't a bad run either. Agreed. The weeklies typically follow climo with only modest + or - deviations. Seeing a mean like that with sig AN snowfall is impressive honestly but still a very long range tool with little skill to accurately predict things like snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agreed. The weeklies typically follow climo with only modest + or - deviations. Seeing a mean like that with sig AN snowfall is impressive honestly but still a very long range tool with little skill to accurately predict things like snowfall. Yep. I didn't get upset when last runs snowfall was a bit modest and I'm not that excited when today's is more. But I am excited by the overall look of everything right now. And as you have pointed out this isn't a long range fantasy. We have already seen the first few dominoes fall with the reversal of the pattern up top in November and the tanking of the AO. There are indications this might be a long term pattern setting up. Perhaps even the dominant one of the winter. No secret I was conservative going into this winter. The majority of similar years were bad. But no two years are alike. We don't know exactly which factors will end up being the key in any given year. 1967 & 1996 for instance were similar enough analogs in some ways too. There was always a chance... I'm not sold 100% yet but perhaps this year is one of those type anamalies. Just the chance that it is had me excited. We will see what happens but there is nothing but good showing up right now in all the guidance I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 57 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Anyone notice the GEFS snow mean maps seem to hate coastal central NJ? Just an oddity I have noticed. The EPS snow maps aren't like that. Wonder if it is a model thing or Weatherbell.. Not sure about jersey, but th GFS does weird things around the bay and metro corridor too. Apparently it got updated with some sort of UHI feature earlier this year (i think) and now it apparently never snows over the bay or gets below freezing. Overnight low forecasts always seem overly warm for every spot except maybe DCA. Euro is often much colder and more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: lol... he's already in. Nobody excludes the Richmond folks, we just forget about them. Now those people in Northern Maryland... Anyways, so as not to make this post useless, here is a look at the Panasonic weeklies' mean snowfall. Not as high as I would have expected from the look, but the one major flaw in the weeklies seems to be they're a little dry. Don't you just hate it when it snows more over the ocean to your east and southeast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Don't you just hate it when it snows more over the ocean to your east and southeast! Well at least it helps cool it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 One think zwyts said years ago that has never left me is the vast majority of our snow events happen with a flawed pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One think zwyts said years ago that has never left me is the vast majority of our snow events happen with a flawed pattern. In hindsight, the pattern may be too perfect, thus yielding non-events. Meridional flows do not always deliver, a wider trough is actually better for region-wide impacts and Miller As. Most will not pick up on the subtle difference unless you are well-versed in atmospheric science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Biggest run of meteorological winter so far. I am just thankful that we didn't have anything to track before daylight saving times ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 lol....good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One think zwyts said years ago that has never left me is the vast majority of our snow events happen with a flawed pattern. Yup. Too perfect and you get a great wasted pattern. The opposite and you're left with a torch. I have this book of East coast snowstorms, and most happen in similar patterns, the issue is that it's more luck based from there. 2009-2010 will most likely never happen again like that. Maybe one big 30"+ storm for DC, but never 2 15" events and 1 more 10" event in that succession. You just never get those good but not perfect patterns like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, poolz1 said: lol....good grief You said it, brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Biggest run of meteorological winter so far. And alternatively the biggest bust of meteorlogical winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 That's quite the cold front judging by the 2m temp contours at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2017 Author Share Posted December 1, 2017 12 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Yup. Too perfect and you get a great wasted pattern. The opposite and you're left with a torch. I have this book of East coast snowstorms, and most happen in similar patterns, the issue is that it's more luck based from there. 2009-2010 will most likely never happen again like that. Maybe one big 30"+ storm for DC, but never 2 15" events and 1 more 10" event in that succession. You just never get those good but not perfect patterns like that. What zwyts was referring to is that most of our events are small and happen with all kinds of weird or unrecognizable setups. If you went back and looked at the upper level plots for 12 different 1-3" events some of them don't even really look like snow. Big ones almost always share a few things with the most common being a 50/50 low. That's easy to spot. KU's have a block somewhere even if transient. Typical events are much more chaotic. Cold and and precip can come together in strange ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 29 minutes ago, poolz1 said: lol....good grief Just a little humor to a long and great winter... Hey I have both BWI/Dulles over 30 inches for the contest this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Strong shortwave coming down at 186 Temps are marginal at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Temps are marginal It's trolling us hard-core, all it does is pump us with southerly winds. Really a remarkable troll, meanwhile the true latent threat is pushed back beyond 198 hours with the shortwave in the Dakotas that looks a shade too far east to really do anything meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 10 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Just a little humor to a long and great winter... Hey I have both BWI/Dulles over 30 inches for the contest this year. Not directed at you at all.... It's all good, just need to let weather to do it's thing. Winners and losers will be had but nobody can deny that this is a great pattern that is most likely to last more than 2 weeks. Could we get burned? Absolutely, Ive lived in the MA for 41 years...been there many times. I cant imagine how many times we failed before internet! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Not directed at you at all.... It's all good, just need to let weather to do it's thing. Winners and losers will be had but nobody can deny that this is a great pattern that is most likely to last more than 2 weeks. Could we get burned? Absolutely, Ive lived in the MA for 41 years...been there many times. I cant imagine how many times we failed before internet! lol I am 41 years young and lived in the Baltimore area my entire life. I remember TWC good ole red screens text warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 240-264 would cause a civil war Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: 240-264 would cause a civil war Torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 GFS is ridiculously cold in the long-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, losetoa6 said: I remember being glued to TWC during the 93 Superstorm . That's was good times The good old 3:45 pm update from PHI or LWX "WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Torch? all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: all snow Parr's Ridge jackpot...hah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.