BristowWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS is active w/ running waves up from the deep south but that's no surprise because the op looks the same. lol What I like right now: -Unanimous agreement that a significant cold front sweeps through this time next week -Active flow behind the front -Looking less likely that a PV hammer pounds everything into the GoM -Strong baroclinic zone this time of year due to warm water and cold continental air clashing -Decent support for blocking to slow down cold air from running away and cutters look less likely than usual What I don't like right now: -Storms running boundaries are generally narrow so snowfall would be narrow and the margin between rain or nothing at all is small -Warm ocean temps would almost certainly cause problems with temps in the mid levels if something organized runs the coast -Early Dec is hostile snow climo in these parts no matter what models show -Until the initial frontal passage is modeled correctly (prob not until Mon-tues) models will be very jumpy and we rarely do well on the front side of flips to cold There is one other small detail that I am not sure about. On the GEFS, looking at 500mb, from about hr300 onward is that a WAR? I suppose that could be good if you are on the right side of it to keep things from escaping. I keep thinking WAR is bad but in this set up I am not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: There is one other small detail that I am not sure about. On the GEFS, looking at 500mb, from about hr300 onward is that a WAR? I suppose that could be good if you are on the right side of it to keep things from escaping. I keep thinking WAR is bad but in this set up I am not sure. I suppose we have to look at it both ways. Have a big block and 50/50 looks great for big storms but it can also be a very dry pattern with squashed flow. WARs can be bad because they often correlate with active/progressive flow and east coast precipitation....but precipitation and rain are 2 different things.... The WAR was our best friend in 13-14/14-15 but it's been our enemy like a couple winters in the 90s where there was plenty of cold but it was never around when precip came through....lol WARs will divide winners and losers and they can live really close together. My general opinion is a WAR in December is bad because the ocean is warm and the hemispheric cold pattern won't be nearly as strong as say Jan/Feb. OTOH- I'd much rather track multiple storms instead of one and done events surrounded by blue skies and boring weather for weeks on end. In short....lol...IF the WAR flexes AND the cold is legit then heck yea I'll take my chances all day. Mixed events are fine. If the cold over overdone then chilly rain won't make any friends...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Based on the GEFS, this looks like the schedule to me: 6-7: fropa with rain 8-9: coastal threat 10-11: clipper? 12: coastal threat? 13+: overrunning scenario?If you believe the 384 hour stuff, the final threat you mention *could* be a memorable event as the pattern relaxes somewhat. Probably another reload, but the NAO might be in transition temporarily and that transition can sometimes yield solid events. Long long way down the road though but taken verbatim past couple runs, that is the vibe Im getting for midmonth. I tink CAPE (?) had that period penciled in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Do we get anything between Day 6 and Day 7 besides cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Euro 7d is a little more believable than GFS with cold rain on the back end of the front. I wanna see what it does with the 180-216h threat though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Euro 7d is a little more believable than GFS with cold rain on the back end of the front. I wanna see what it does with the 180-216h threat though.Euro seems more focused on the Clipper/kicker which certainly makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 12z EURO has a big trough in the east day 8 with ridge located in the right place if we want something nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Would like to see that whole trof just a little farther West but WOW....that look! Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Very cold 850s Day 9... but i think we miss the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Back to back fish storms on the euro. It’s a thread the needle but it’s not far off. Euro needs more upstream blocking to slow the trough down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Back to back fish storms on the euro. It’s a thread the needle but it’s not far off. Euro needs more upstream blocking to slow the trough down. Yea, trough axis keeps all the goods east but it I liked seeing a potent vort dropping down after fropa. Some of our best clippers happen with digs like that. Get SLP popping in the lee of the apps down around the nc/sc border and we'd be in business. It's going to be a long week coming up. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 EURO is probably some snow on Day 6 for most of the area. If not, its really close. Some weak stuff on the back of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 JMA gets snow into the region next Friday fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Multiple vorts spinning within that flow ....I loved the run overall..Just minor tweaks . Many chances to score something...more energy diving thru the Dakota's at day 9/10 ... nice ! One thing the euro op delivers on is "winter appeal" for early Dec. Windy, cold, flurries, and all that stuff. So very close to a legit cold powder event too. Models are jumping but post fropa next week will almost certainly feel like winter and odds of seeing snow fall from the sky keep increasing. ETA: my guess is the 12z EPS is going to up the snow chances one way or another. Either higher mean snowfall or increased # of members with accum snow...or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Sorry but what is FROPA and WAR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, Wonderdog said: Sorry but what is FROPA and WAR? Frontal passage Western Atlantic Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 I think I'll hug the GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, attml said: Lot of action on that snow line That's Montreal isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, attml said: Lot of action on that snow line Um, we live in DC, not Montreal Canada And you now have it edited to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Yeah, (but that is still a lot of action!) :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 EPS looks a lot better than Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 EPS looks a lot better than Op.In terms Of what?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 FWIW, using the WxBell graphics, DCA has somewhere between a 20%-30% chance of an inch of snow by Day 9 based on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 I didn't realize EPS went out to day 15. Awesome. Still watching it roll in. Also, e32 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 What also is interesting is that many of the EPS have the storm focused around Day 7 moreso then Day 8/9. Love pushing the threat window up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Some ensemble members through 15 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Also, because it was way too funny not to post... What DC snow hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Some ensemble members through 15 days You can tell that there are a lot of coastals in that mix and it's more a matter of rain or snow vs. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 EPS has trended like the GEFS with the WAR d10+. I actually kinda like it because both models show abundant cold nearby and overhead. The war should keep flow aligned along the coast instead of off the coast. The more we move forward in time the more it looks like an active period is on deck and less worry about cold/dry. I'll trade the risk of temp problems with multiple precip events and hug the fact that the last couple times we had a -epo/war combo it produced in prolific fashion. I'll prob be eating these words in a week....haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS has trended like the GEFS with the WAR d10+. I actually kinda like it because both models show abundant cold nearby and overhead. The war should keep flow aligned along the coast instead of off the coast. The more we move forward in time the more it looks like an active period is on deck and less worry about cold/dry. I'll trade the risk of temp problems with multiple precip events and hug the fact that the last couple times we had a -epo/war combo it produced in prolific fashion. I'll prob be eating these words in a week....haha My main concern is the Ian favorite of persistence - and it has been quite dry lately. Hopefully that changes with the pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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