clskinsfan Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 That is quite a December cold blast for the CONUS being shown on the GFS. Has me in the low teens on the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 D12 looks like we're gonna get another blast, as just about every LR run has showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Why is it so hard to get a December to look like that run lol, have to savor that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Why is it so hard to get a December to look like that run lol, have to savor that look Just relentless cold and storm chances on the GFS. The -EPO becomes quite a powerhouse and never breaks down thru the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Snow on GFS op through the end of the run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, supernovasky said: Snow on GFS op through the end of the run: Cumberland snowhole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 You know it's an odd snow map when Deep Creek gets screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: You know it's an odd snow map when Deep Creek gets screwed That's not "screwed", that's justice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: That's not "screwed", that's justice! Amen to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 so we are hugging precip along an exiting front to get some snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: That's not "screwed", that's justice! Not to mention if the patterns goes down as advertised, it would be upslope bonanza regardless of what any model says verbatim. If the 12z GFS was 100% accurate in its depiction of the upper levels, I guaranty Wisp would get 1-2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: so we are hugging precip along an exiting front to get some snow? No, a trailing vort that hits the coast and develops a storm.....which comes after the exiting front with some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, mitchnick said: No, a trailing vort that hits the coast and develops a storm.....which comes after the exiting front with some snow ah, yes. thanks. see that now. im skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: ah, yes. thanks. see that now. im skeptical. then quit reading Chuck's posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: ah, yes. thanks. see that now. im skeptical. We both (probably all of us) know that there is no accurate way to know how things evolve after fropa next week. The goal posts are separated by a big storm and a complete shutout. I suppose we probably have above normal chances at getting some accum snow. Hopefully we're still having a conversation about snowfall this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: We both (probably all of us) know that there is no accurate way to know how things evolve after fropa next week. The goal posts are separated by a big storm and a complete shutout. I suppose we probably have above normal chances at getting some accum snow. Hopefully we're still having a conversation about snowfall this time next week. its nice to see moving pieces, that is for sure. surely something will give us some snow, but if its a clipper, or a coastal storm, who knows. get the cold in here first and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 There's still a crapton of things that have to go right for that coastal to pop. NS, SS need to hit it just right, gotta have a bit of a WAR or it goes OTS. there's a kicker behind it too. Too soon and it messes up the coastal. Just throwing caution flags up so that people slow their rolls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, H2O said: There's still a crapton of things that have to go right for that coastal to pop. NS, SS need to hit it just right, gotta have a bit of a WAR or it goes OTS. there's a kicker behind it too. Too soon and it messes up the coastal. Just throwing caution flags up so that people slow their rolls. Sorry can’t hear you over the sound of my snow blower turning on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, WxUSAF said: Sorry can’t hear you over the sound of my snow blower turning on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, mappy said: its nice to see moving pieces, that is for sure. surely something will give us some snow, but if its a clipper, or a coastal storm, who knows. get the cold in here first and go from there. Yes! The best part of looking at the models this week has been that Torchy McTorchface has made zero appearances. Feels good does it not!? Some great snow opportunities ahead. Can’t wait! Hope the Euro starts delivering the goods next. Who’s got the keys to the bus? Maybe someone should see if it still even runs. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 GEFS is the best of the bunch. Ups snowfall mean through d8 by about an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Based on the GEFS, this looks like the schedule to me: 6-7: fropa with rain 8-9: coastal threat 10-11: clipper? 12: coastal threat? 13+: overrunning scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 A bit more WAR on the 12z GEFS then I would like, esp towards the end of the run when the long-wave pattern retrogrades/relaxes a bit. GEFS seems to be hinting at this every couple runs lately. Way out there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 GEFS is active w/ running waves up from the deep south but that's no surprise because the op looks the same. lol What I like right now: -Unanimous agreement that a significant cold front sweeps through this time next week -Active flow behind the front -Looking less likely that a PV hammer pounds everything into the GoM -Strong baroclinic zone this time of year due to warm water and cold continental air clashing -Decent support for blocking to slow down cold air from running away and cutters look less likely than usual What I don't like right now: -Storms running boundaries are generally narrow so snowfall would be narrow and the margin between rain or nothing at all is small -Warm ocean temps would almost certainly cause problems with temps in the mid levels if something organized runs the coast -Early Dec is hostile snow climo in these parts no matter what models show -Until the initial frontal passage is modeled correctly (prob not until Mon-tues) models will be very jumpy and we rarely do well on the front side of flips to cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Well we know how it goes with popping coastal storms at the ideal time and latitude - that rarely works out - but, it does appear that there will be numerous imbedded clipper type systems that could whiten the ground a few times in the next two weeks between the bigger potential storm events. All-in-all about as good as it gets this time of year. Should be fun tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Summary of the 12z GFS/GEFS: looks good, still 8 days out, but it's exciting for 8 days out. Expect Chuck to make a post titled "80% chance of snow by Christmas", and then talk about a torch through mid December by next Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS is active w/ running waves up from the deep south but that's no surprise because the op looks the same. lol What I like right now: -Unanimous agreement that a significant cold front sweeps through this time next week -Active flow behind the front -Looking less likely that a PV hammer pounds everything into the GoM -Strong baroclinic zone this time of year due to warm water and cold continental air clashing -Decent support for blocking to slow down cold air from running away and cutters look less likely than usual What I don't like right now: -Storms running boundaries are generally narrow so snowfall would be narrow and the margin between rain or nothing at all is small -Warm ocean temps would almost certainly cause problems with temps in the mid levels if something organized runs the coast -Early Dec is hostile snow climo in these parts no matter what models show -Until the initial frontal passage is modeled correctly (prob not until Mon-tues) models will be very jumpy and we rarely do well on the front side of flips to cold Good post... fwiw the entire column was fine for the Day 8 snow on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 GEFS through 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 oh, yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 minute ago, H2O said: oh, yoda I know I checked cause I was bored with nothing to do right now at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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