Interstate Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 I like this run of the OP much better... none of that beast of a lake runner... and some small snow chance events. The 14th would be crazy cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 The blocking ridge is so far out into the Atlantic on this run I'm not sure it officially qualifies as NAO domain space, but the western ridge is consistent enough to keep a deep trough over the east basically the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Oh hai der 00z CMC... I see you with your Day 8-9 snow event for the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2017 Author Share Posted November 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: I like this run of the OP much better... none of that beast of a lake runner... and some small snow chance events. The 14th would be crazy cold Surprised you didn't mention the cmc. Screen name doesn't check out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Oh hai der 00z CMC... I see you with your Day 8-9 snow event for the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 I think we can all rest easy looking at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 We could see some snow at the end of the passage of that cold front on the 7th if that cold air rushes in. After looking at the latest 0z and the 12z run of yesterday, I have a feeling we are going to have multiple chances within a period of 7 to 14 days to have some real wintry weather. I think this is going to be the "December to remember". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 December starts with +15 anomalies in the Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: We could see some snow at the end of the passage of that cold front on the 7th if that cold air rushes in. After looking at the latest 0z and the 12z run of yesterday, I have a feeling we are going to have multiple chances within a period of 7 to 14 days to have some real wintry weather. I think this is going to be the "December to remember". Always so hard to score snow waiting for the cold to bleed in. We have scored on rare occasion but normally modeled snow is exactly that, modeled snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 And the 00Z GEFS calms the masses down. No doomsday massive trough into the southwest. Nor no SE ridge popping its head into the southeast. Generally the overnight GEFS falls in line with previous runs which are not the 18z. Some minor changes with the major player's positioning and strength but that is to be expected. Major takeaway from the run is that it looks to be a touch less aggressive driving the pv southward and has a generally less suppressive look over all through the period and this can be seen with the snowfall means maps as they pull the general snowfall profile northward. But this less suppressive look could also mean we are riding the line on systems coming through our region. I did see several very good looks through the period for possible storms. Of note for day 16 and beyond is that we are seeing weaker ridging and heights over the polar regions. But that is a concern for another day and most likely we will see changes on that over the coming days anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 06Z shows a way we could possibly score. Hangs up the cold front to our south allowing enough time for the decent cold to bleed in before it develops a low and runs it along the front around day 7/8. Cooperative temps on the surface would probably be dependent on whether it was night or daytime event with the setup as shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 6 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Surprised you didn't mention the cmc. Screen name doesn't check out. I haven't seen the JMA yet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 06z GEFS looks sweet to me just maybe not quite as sweet as 0z but the same general theme I believe. At 500mb, its almost as if the entire Eastern half of NA is becoming one giant spinning PV because I don't see the -NAO block but lobes look to be rotating through like a parade which is evident in the 850 negative anomalies. You can see at 384 another batch of chilly is working SE. And the PAC remains solid looking to my untrained eye although not solid as 0z. This is completely my view and you guys can slam my weak analysis. But I like it. Its evident the importance of the PAC to our weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Yea . Saw this. ...A hung up front and a ripple of low pressure could form and amplify just enough to swipe us with a light to possible moderate event ...dependant on temps of course as you mentioned. 6z 192 below...some strong vorticity coming thru Tennessee as that low strengthens a little Too late verbatim but worth watching I would gladly accept the 6z gfs day 7ish.....possible light accumulation setting the stage for the polar airmass en route. Nothing like a little white on the ground with our arctic blast :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: 06z GEFS looks sweet to me just maybe not quite as sweet as 0z but the same general theme I believe. At 500mb, its almost as if the entire Eastern half of NA is becoming one giant spinning PV because I don't see the -NAO block but lobes look to be rotating through like a parade which is evident in the 850 negative anomalies. You can see at 384 another batch of chilly is working SE. And the PAC remains solid looking to my untrained eye although not solid as 0z. This is completely my view and you guys can slam my weak analysis. But I like it. Its evident the importance of the PAC to our weather. Pretty good analysis! Sort of reading through the ens smoothing, looks like there is some impressive ridging over GL at times, but nothing really persistent.(can use the op runs to better see this) We can work with that if that's how it plays out, and as we well know, the NA blocking is almost always over-forecasted. The PV is going to be a major player, and again on the ens runs its a bit difficult to gauge strength and timing of the lobes rotating down because of member averaging/smoothing. The ops show it more clearly, but not something I would rely on too much until inside of 7 days. What I am noticing on the ensembles in general lately is weaker NA blocking, or it is displaced too far east. The WAR needs to be watched as well- at this point it doesn't appear it would be too much of a hindrance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 12 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Looking forward to getting a real threat so I can start hiding trash posts. Met winter starts tomorrow. That's my green light to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 3 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said: December starts with +15 anomalies in the Midwest Good thing that's long-range discussion, or else it wouldn't belong in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 I looked a little more at December 2000 just now. There was a big Miller B that gave philly 9” near the end of the month. Take a look at the PSU ewall for the 27th-30th. Damn if that happened again we’d all be up on the Bay bridge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 GEFS panels this morning. Backed off a bit from some of the snow, but still a pretty snowy panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 e18 and call it a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I looked a little more at December 2000 just now. There was a big Miller B that gave philly 9” near the end of the month. Take a look at the PSU ewall for the 27th-30th. Damn if that happened again we’d all be up on the Bay bridge... It was worse than there just being a sharp cutoff. We were forecast to be on the other side of the cutoff and as far south as the DC metro area was under a Winter Storm Warning. We woke up to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I looked a little more at December 2000 just now. There was a big Miller B that gave philly 9” near the end of the month. Take a look at the PSU ewall for the 27th-30th. Damn if that happened again we’d all be up on the Bay bridge... The Sunny and Windy day as I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Pretty good analysis! Sort of reading through the ens smoothing, looks like there is some impressive ridging over GL at times, but nothing really persistent.(can use the op runs to better see this) We can work with that if that's how it plays out, and as we well know, the NA blocking is almost always over-forecasted. The PV is going to be a major player, and again on the ens runs its a bit difficult to gauge strength and timing of the lobes rotating down because of member averaging/smoothing. The ops show it more clearly, but not something I would rely on too much until inside of 7 days. What I am noticing on the ensembles in general lately is weaker NA blocking, or it is displaced too far east. The WAR needs to be watched as well- at this point it doesn't appear it would be too much of a hindrance. This. Love seeing that and not just one big blob sitting there. Get them rotating like that and you always have the opportunity to score when one of them is pulling away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I looked a little more at December 2000 just now. There was a big Miller B that gave philly 9” near the end of the month. Take a look at the PSU ewall for the 27th-30th. Damn if that happened again we’d all be up on the Bay bridge... I remember that (non)storm. There was supposed to be snow in Baltimore for the Ravens-Broncos playoff game. It ended up sunny and 35. I had a few flurries here, but places over in DE along the coast got a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I looked a little more at December 2000 just now. There was a big Miller B that gave philly 9” near the end of the month. Take a look at the PSU ewall for the 27th-30th. Damn if that happened again we’d all be up on the Bay bridge... That one was tougher to take for me than boxing day 2010. Ranks second for me right being march 2001. Other than the very cold in December the only event of note occurred on the 19th or 20th. Area wide 1-4 from an anafront type deal. Call was for 6-10 in the metro even when anyone with a little knowledge could see we had no chance. I believe ravens won their first playoff game against Denver the following day on the run to the super bowl championship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Last real run of Meteorological Autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 1 hour ago, HighStakes said: That one was tougher to take for me than boxing day 2010. Ranks second for me right being march 2001. Other than the very cold in December the only event of note occurred on the 19th or 20th. Area wide 1-4 from an anafront type deal. Call was for 6-10 in the metro even when anyone with a little knowledge could see we had no chance. I believe ravens won their first playoff game against Denver the following day on the run to the super bowl championship. I wasn't around this area for Dec '00 - March '01, but any parallels down this way to that winter, from what I know from you all that lived here then, are not happy parallels for the most part. Between that late December miss and the March '01 fiasco, I wouldn't want a repeat of that this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I wasn't around this area for Dec '00 - March '01, but any parallels down this way to that winter, from what I know from you all that lived here then, are not happy parallels for the most part. Between that late December miss and the March '01 fiasco, I wouldn't want a repeat of that this time around. The only period of note was from Jan. 19th to around Feb. 2nd 2000. That was a really nice 2 week run. Other than that the years 97-2002 were tough to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Looking at the 12z GFS 138 hrs. 5H map, I think there may be some post frontal snow. Let's see how bad my call will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 At 144 hrs., you can see the energy diving down behind the front https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017113012&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=218 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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