CAPE Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: It amazes me how much the OP runs differ from just 6 hours ago at the H5. It really should not amaze you though. I pay little attention to op runs until a potential event of interest is inside of 7 days, and then inside of 5 I give it much more consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: It really should not amaze you though. I pay little attention to op runs until a potential event of interest is inside of 7 days, and then inside of 5 I give it much more consideration. True... I just want something locked in from 10 days out... sorta like 2009-2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: True... I just want something locked in from 10 days out... sorta like 2009-2010 Dude we pretty much have the pattern locked in. It is pretty darn-near impossible to have a discrete event locked in at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 The 12Z Euro appears to have a deeper trough while the 18Z gfs has a stronger consolidated one d9. I really like what we're seeing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2017 Author Share Posted November 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Dude we pretty much have the pattern locked in. It is pretty darn-near impossible to have a discrete event locked in at day 10. Jan 16 and the first Feb storm in 10 locked in about 8 days out. Dec 09 was iffy all the way to 48 hours. I'd say Jan 16 was the greatest model accomplishment I've ever seen. So it can happen every once in a while. Transition months like Dec are notoriously tricky to get right from far away. ETA: I'd be surprised if we didn't at least see some flakes fly in the next 2 weeks. About as ripe as you can ask for in these parts for early season stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 This needs to be marked NSFW. Looks like a very significant snowstorm.You can almost make out the anticyclonic flow just East of the Gulf Stream.....almost looks like a quasi Bermuda high blocking the baroclinic zone from going any farther East which in turn is backing the flow along the coast throwing precip back across the region. Thats a really nice setup verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 HUGE ridge in the PAC at Day 9-10... big trough in the East as well on 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Jan 16 and the first Feb storm in 10 locked in about 8 days out. Dec 09 was iffy all the way to 48 hours. I'd say Jan 16 was the greatest model accomplishment I've ever seen. So it can happen every once in a while. Transition months like Dec are notoriously tricky to get right from far away. Yeah as it turned out Jan 16 was remarkably locked in at long lead. That is pretty rare though. It is more likely though when we get clear cut, uncomplicated, epic patterns. That was a strong Nino with a perfectly placed absolute monster west-based block, and a favorable Pacific. That pattern would have been hard pressed to fail lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 I think we also need to consider it is still the first and second week of December. Not that it can't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 12 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: True... I just want something locked in from 10 days out... sorta like 2009-2010 Let us know how that works out for ya...... I hope your pain tolerance is of the frigging charts....cause your headed for a world of hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah as it turned out Jan 16 was remarkably locked in at long lead. That is pretty rare though. It is more likely though when we get clear cut, uncomplicated, epic patterns. That was a strong Nino with a perfectly placed absolute monster west-based block, and a favorable Pacific. That pattern would have been hard pressed to fail lol. I remember reading a lot about the remarkable verification from '96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 I've been trying to find something to hate on with this upcoming switch and I honestly can't find a reason to 'meh' this. So far, this is a decent looking setup for some kind of cold and wintry period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Been away for a while and it looks like my early Christmas wish is coming through with the pattern change being advertised. Loving how the major tellies are lining up for us. While the talk of digital snow is already starting, I'm thankful to see a fun December in the offing. Looking forward to getting caught up and trackin some snow. PS...been a while since I've seen a ridge bride like that on the 500's. (I peeked last night from my phone) WOWZERS!! Even if it doesnt happen, all the other indicies look great to me. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somecallmetim Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I remember reading a lot about the remarkable verification from '96. If you're talking about the post-Christmas storm, I was visiting my folks in coastal CT at the time. I'd been tracking, as much as one could at that point. Went to NYC for the day and left in the morning to a forecast of light snow "with maybe the possibility of a little more." Came home that night to a blizzard warning and the Emergency Broadcast System activated. So at least that one '96 storm wasn't exactly a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Well it looks like the GFS is going with a good ole Lake runner at the end I would hate a pattern of cold/dry and warm/wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 So, happy hr GFS has a rain to snow deal for the 12th, and something else brewing for the 15th. Thats my week!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, somecallmetim said: If you're talking about the post-Christmas storm, I was visiting my folks in coastal CT at the time. I'd been tracking, as much as one could at that point. Went to NYC for the day and left in the morning to a forecast of light snow "with maybe the possibility of a little more." Came home that night to a blizzard warning and the Emergency Broadcast System activated. So at least that one '96 storm wasn't exactly a lock. 4 days of lead time 20+ years ago https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/bz-mrg.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Well it looks like the GFS is going with a good ole Lake runner at the end I would hate a pattern of cold/dry and warm/wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: So, happy hr GFS has a rain to snow deal for the 12th, and something else brewing for the 15th. Thats my week!! That is actually so great to see right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somecallmetim Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 10 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 4 days of lead time 20+ years ago https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/bz-mrg.pdf Cool read, thanks. It was an incredible storm, especially literally on the CT coast, where there were 50+ gusts. Note this one excerpt though--this is what I remember, in S CT it was more like an 18 hour lead: "As the weekend progressed and the storm began to track further north and west, the numerical and HPC guidance began to shift the forecast of the outer edge of the snow shield further north and west. This placed additional areas under the threat of heavy snow, including...southern New York, and more of southern and central New England. Forecasters in these areas had to play "catch up" by issuing Winter Storm Warnings with shorter lead times and forecasts with increased snowfall amounts." Didn't have Amwx in those days, or would have known better. Just had NOAA weather radio, toggling between local stations, the Weather Channel and 56k dial up where you could get the NWS discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 9 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: That is actually so great to see right now! Except I was looking at 12z. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Except I was looking at 12z. lol I misquoted by 1 post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 It’s an op run in uber LR but 18z sucked. Trough in the West at 500mb. Rain and SE ridge popping. Lakes cutter Will wait for GEFS but that wasn’t what I wanted to see at all. On to 0z. GEFS doesn’t look like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 GEFS comes in drier, but the 12z was juiced up, so it's no surprise that the 18z didn't top it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: GEFS comes in drier, but the 12z was juiced up, so it's no surprise that the 18z didn't top it It also comes in warmer. Not gonna put all my eggs in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s an op run in uber LR but 18z sucked. Trough in the West at 500mb. Rain and SE ridge popping. Lakes cutter Will wait for GEFS but that wasn’t what I wanted to see at all. On to 0z. GEFS doesn’t look like that. 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS comes in drier, but the 12z was juiced up, so it's no surprise that the 18z didn't top it 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: It also comes in warmer. Not gonna put all my eggs in this. Really wouldn't worry to much about the 18z or the 06z op or ensemble runs. Not saying they are wrong but they do have a habit of going off the rails on occasion. I myself stick to the 00z and 12z for the most part. When I start seeing them going south is when I start to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: Really wouldn't worry to much about the 18z or the 06z op or ensemble runs. Not saying they are wrong but they do have a habit of going off the rails on occasion. I myself stick to the 00z and 12z for the most part. When I start seeing them going south is when I start to worry. You also can't worry about only 1 run of 1 particular model. Chances are its just the GFS being the GFS with its occasional fluke run being tossed into the mix every now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 29, 2017 Share Posted November 29, 2017 Just now, showmethesnow said: Really wouldn't worry to much about the 18z or the 06z op or ensemble runs. Not saying they are wrong but they do have a habit of going off the rails on occasion. I myself stick to the 00z and 12z for the most part. When I start seeing them going south is when I start to worry. But why my friend. We dismissed the off hour runs be less important or reliable as myth. I’m not saying this 18z run is correct or not but it’s theoretically more recent in its data ingest than 12z. Unless I am mistaken which is almost always true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 18z GEFS retros things a bit- western ridge moves further west late in the run, and weakens some, and the mean trough shifts west with it. Pops a bit of a SE ridge. There were hints of this at 12z. Not panic time, lol. These features dont stay stationary indefinitely. And no signs of this on the EPS, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Just now, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Where is the ledge. Come on people... we have not even gotten to December yet!!! No ledge. But we do analyze every run both op and ensemble. So this is part of the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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