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December 2017 Long Range Disco

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

If you don’t mind, how does the 500mb map lead you to believe that there would be much more? I love soaking up information so any explanation would be greatly appreciated. 

 

Merci

The snow @ d10 on the euro is the frontside stuff. It's the middle of a legit storm at the end of the run. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Nice

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles are still pretty jaw dropping with the Pacific.

 

That EPO ridge N of AK is still amplifying at 312 hours (that's what the EPS is out to right now)...like, you would have figured that far out, we'd see the muting effect take over by now to stop the poleward advancement.

 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Noticed this lil tidbit from today's afternoon LWX AFD: 

Although long range guidance disagrees on finer scale details,
all models and ensembles agree remarkably well on a major
pattern shift by the middle of next week as Arctic air barrels
toward the region. All major teleconnections
(-AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO/MJO Phase 5) support this pattern flip to
much colder weather as well lending to higher than normal
confidence at this long time range.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

If we look past our past failures and pessimism,  it’s really a solid pattern as depticted for winter weather of some kind.  I know we have failed much closer in time but that 500mb look is hard to dismiss.  

I agree. We have a very good look and I think it is for real. But I have seen good looks go to waste far to often to be betting my house on modeled snow. For now I will just watch and wait and maybe throw some hype out there for the weenies. After all, if my heart is going to be broken by another fail I might as well have some fun getting the weenies all riled up. :D

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There is a definite uptick in the snow dept days 8-10 on the 12z EPS.

This is when it gets fun tracking. When there is no clear delineation between storms. The possible day 7/8 storm and the possible day 10/11 storm are now bleeding together on precip/snow totals so it is hard to tell between the two. Means the action could be coming in fast and furious.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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The EPS has once again increased the precip totals for the possible storm centered around day 7/8. Hard to tell but the mean is probably around .7 or so for that period of time. We are also seeing a slight improvement on the means with the possibility of snow. The half inch line is now around the cities whereas the overnight run had trace amounts. But that is being heavily skewed by a handful or so of members that are somewhat heavy hitters around the general region.

Seeing the improvements in the regards to possible snow with this on both the EPS and the GEFS make you wonder a little. But I am not a big fan of waiting for cold to bleed in to change snow over to rain of which this looks to be the case. That set up very rarely works in the heart of winter let alone in early December. But I guess we will see.

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stormtracker

stormtracker

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The EPS has once again increased the precip totals for the possible storm centered around day 7/8. Hard to tell but the mean is probably around .7 or so for that period of time. We are also seeing a slight improvement on the means with the possibility of snow. The half inch line is now around the cities whereas the overnight run had trace amounts. But that is being heavily skewed by a handful or so of members that are somewhat heavy hitters around the general region.

Seeing the improvements in the regards to possible snow with this on both the EPS and the GEFS make you wonder a little. But I am not a big fan of waiting for cold to bleed in to change snow over to rain of which this looks to be the case. That set up very rarely works in the heart of winter let alone in early December. But I guess we will see.

?  I thought the storm was a D10 thing

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

?  I thought the storm was a D10 thing

Two parter. Looks as if the models like a storm developing on the cold front as the initial cold bleeds in. Then it looks as if we may have a follow up a couple of days later at day 10/11. At this time odds favor the first being rain or mostly rain with a changeover late possible. The second looks to be the one that presents some good upside. But you know how the models work around here. So stay tuned.

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CAPE

CAPE

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Who’s up for some happy hour GFS on the rocks?  My guess is day 10 won’t look all that great simply because the pattern is fragile but who knows.  Have a cup of cheer

I am in it for the ensembles though. Still having too much fun drooling over the h5 pattern. Still pretty far out for discrete events. Storm chances will be there going forward.

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