December 2017 Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I suppose it's all about how you look at it. In my view, while the coldest solutions may not have necessarily gotten colder, the warmest solutions getting cooler is indicative of a general trend towards cold.

Semantics and all that.

There are different ways to interpret the ensembles. Lots to look at. In my view, there is a more impressive EPO ridge over the last few runs in addition to the PV pushing further south on both the GEFS and EPS. On the 0z EPS the block over GL, which had been weaker towards the end on previous runs, is more impressive. The advertised colder look can at least partially be attributed to these changes.

[showmethesnow]

13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nice write up @showmethesnow. The models have been pretty consistently advertising what looks to be a decent southern jet aimed towards the SE/MA coast. Also I like seeing that piece of the PV underneath the block. The bigger risk for this region to me is almost always the storm track being too far N/W, which is why I am always going to root for the biggest, stoutest NA block possible, positioned from near the Davis Straits SW to Hudson Bay. That is an ideal location for this region, as it tends to force the storm track just far enough SE. Sure suppression is a risk, but there are always risks depending on the exact strength and position of all of these features. The panel you posted is a beauty. The period from about the 10th forward has some real potential.

Thank you.

I am with you as far as the blocking. I would rather risk suppression then seeing everything drive to our north which far to often is the case. I can see the possibility of suppression in this case though but am of the thought that the models are probably over doing the southward extent of the pv. Famous last words I know.

Yeah, I pulled that panel up and it was a 'Wow' moment for me. I could have hyped that panel up even more but I got tired of writing and I didn't want to make @WxWatcher007 job too easy when the look goes into the crapper. If I wanted to hype it even more I would have mentioned that the faster northern flow would have presented the higher likelihood of any phase being a clean phase as the NS caught up and dove into the rear of the southern energy. Nor did I mention that with such a huge window being presented that short of a 3/4 day hiatus of NS energy I would think that seeing a phase would be of fairly high probability. I especially didn't want to mention the possibility that this setup was probably one of the more favorable I have seen in a few years for the possibility of the ever elusive triple phaser. Nah, not mentioning them was probably the best thing to do. 

[olafminesaw]

The EPS was rather snowy. I only have snow depth maps too work with, but 10% of the members had 4"+ snow depth as of December 13th.

[mattie g]

32 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

There are different ways to interpret the ensembles. Lots to look at. In my view, there is a more impressive EPO ridge over the last few runs in addition to the PV pushing further south on both the GEFS and EPS. On the 0z EPS the block over GL, which had been weaker towards the end on previous runs, is more impressive. The advertised colder look can at least partially be attributed to these changes.

No doubt. There's just so much going on, and it's a look that might only take a small change to get folks really excited at what could be depicted on the surface.

It feels like a broken record at this point, but looking at the 500mb maps on the ensembles (as well as the ops) the last week or so feels like looking back in time. It's just all so incredibly different than it has been the last MANY years that I think we're all pretty stunned.

[frd]

Looks like past day 11 a high wave number pattern emerges as Ventrice states, tables being set for a big event down the road possibly.

 

 

[frd]

 

 

Colder and Colder on the CIPS Analogs

 

 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, frd said:

 

 

Colder and Colder on the CIPS Analogs

 

 

 

 

Good.  Glad to see this slowly creeping into the 150 - 200 hr range.  Hopefully the Lake Effect jackpots...always love seeing those streamers go on for hours on end.

[BristowWx]

This COULD be one of those extreme weather patterns that we compare all others to when all is said and done.  #cautiouslyexcited

[poolz1]

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

This COULD be one of those extreme weather patterns that we compare all others to when all is said and done.  #cautiouslyexcited

I agree...The combo of the -AO/EPO on the 06z gefs is really something.  Someone, somewhere and most likely a large geographical area of the midwest and east is going to see some memorable weather for mid dec.  I know we all, including myself, care more about the details and what occurs regionally but Im getting excited to watch this play out!

[frd]

23 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I agree...The combo of the -AO/EPO on the 06z gefs is really something.  Someone, somewhere and most likely a large geographical area of the midwest and east is going to see some memorable weather for mid dec.  I know we all, including myself, care more about the details and what occurs regionally but Im getting excited to watch this play out!

 

Of even more interest,  and this is speculation,  but there are various factors that could have a third drop in AO as we near mid to late December. The atmosphere on many occasions, not all, but many, will set things into motion to balnace things out. So, it will be really cool to see how this plays out.

Hard to explain the joy of seeing these indicies modeled after years of disguist. And it would appear things are trending better and longer  :-)  

 

[frd]

As Bob had mentioned, the potential for snow in these parts might come more from clippers and southern slidders. Any big event might come towards the end as Sam 

spoke about here in his tweet. 

 

 

 

[Interstate]

The GFS OP would be a kick in the teeth for the 12th.  But maybe not so much so on the 15th... TBD

[Bob Chill]

Personally, I loved the gfs op run. Constantly walking the line and active flow. I'd much prefer to score once out of 4 chances instead of failing at our only chance. 

[poolz1]

Until our triple phaser on D17!  

Just the beginning of many teases out in the LR on the ops.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

It's like a perminate floodgate into the conus  for cold air thru the entire run and at the end it unloading big time again . I loved the run 

Me too man. That's what I'm talking about. Not a PV hammer that dusts the orange groves. lol

We won't have a single clue about a discreet event until it's inside of 5 days or so. Might be tracking first flakes and/or event within a week or so. 

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Me too man. That's what I'm talking about. Not a PV hammer that dusts the orange groves. lol

We won't have a single clue about a discreet event until it's inside of 5 days or so. Might be tracking first flakes and/or event within a week or so. 

Echo all these thoughts. Op runs are getting increasingly active in the post-pattern change time. I like it. Preliminary flizzard watches for the end of next week and following weekend.

[H2O]

cold for Dec

[yoda]

Maybe I am wrong... and it is the 12z CMC... but it does appear to be cooking up a lil something at Day 10 down by the GOM, yes?

Plus its plenty cold at the 2M level... highs in the mid 30s day 9 and day 10

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Maybe I am wrong... and it is the 12z CMC... but it does appear to be cooking up a lil something at Day 10 down by the GOM, yes?

Plus its plenty cold at the 2M level... highs in the mid 30s day 9 and day 10

Yes it is..extrapolating beyond would have snow breaking out by nightfall...fun to look at

[CAPE]

I think everyone here is going to really like the GEFS. Looks sweet.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think everyone here is going to really like the GEFS. Looks sweet.

I loved it. I actually liked the atl ridge on the means. Much better look for precip. D7-13 precip anomaly is sweeeet...

 

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes it is..extrapolating beyond would have snow breaking out by nightfall...fun to look at

That's what I thought as well... and I wanted to make sure that somebody else saw the same thing lol... it would appear to be a good setup for a potential storm Day 11

[ErinInTheSky]

GEFS looks great for first flakes through 10 days!

 

I really hope this winter is better than last, I moved up here so excited for winter and got last year....

 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I loved it. I actually liked the atl ridge on the means. Much better look for precip. D7-13 precip anomaly is sweeeet...

 

LOL you beat me too it. Was just about to post this.

[ErinInTheSky]

Waiting until full GEFS is out but E20.... lol.... please god.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

Waiting until full GEFS is out but E20.... lol.... please god.

Could you post at 384 too? Curious what the mean is at this point.

[ErinInTheSky]

Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Could you post at 384 too? Curious what the mean is at this point.

As soon as its out, I'll post panels + mean. 

[BristowWx]

somebody should post "its happening" as well...since it just might be...that was an impressive op run...I kept hitting the advance button just for 500mb anomoly and it was non stop blue over the east like it was on a merry go round and it didn't look like it was about to end...that is aces in my book..

[ErinInTheSky]

GFS 384h panel:

 

 

Mean:

 

 

Keep in mind it's from multiple events, so it could be just 2-3 dustings, but each one has the potential to produce.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I loved it. I actually liked the atl ridge on the means. Much better look for precip. D7-13 precip anomaly is sweeeet...

 

North trend ftmfw!