Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,909
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WichitaChiefSam
    Newest Member
    WichitaChiefSam
    Joined

December 2017 Long Range Disco

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

Recommended Posts

showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
  On 11/28/2017 at 8:11 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

Haha. I gave up. It's too slow, and I am wondering if it will even get "corrected". I will keep it, but if wx.graphics adds enough of the other ens stuff I might cancel it.

Expand  

WOO HOO!!! Up to day 7 now. :) 

I have been considering other options as well. The missing panels and slow loading times has been really working my nerves lately.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
  On 11/28/2017 at 9:00 PM, Cobalt said:

I'm just saying, both the EPS and the GEFS have upped the snow mean dramatically. Is this a sign of things to come? ^_^

 

 

gefs_snow_mean_washdc_65.png

eps_tsnow_m_washdc_61.png

Expand  

And that is just using 10 to 1 ratios. With all this cold we should probably use Kuchera snow ratios. Easily 20 to 1 ratios. Heck it's going to be so cold it will probably be 30 to 1 ratios. So triple these numbers and that should give you a good idea how much snow you will get in the next 15/16 days. So book the DC/BALT corridor for anywhere from 4 to 6 inches of cold smoke. :o

_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
 

Just funning. Thought I would jump onto the hype train and get the weenies worked up. B)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
  On 11/28/2017 at 9:26 PM, showmethesnow said:

And that is just using 10 to 1 ratios. With all this cold we should probably use Kuchera snow ratios. Easily 20 to 1 ratios. Heck it's going to be so cold it will probably be 30 to 1 ratios. So triple these numbers and that should give you a good idea how much snow you will get in the next 15/16 days. So book the DC/BALT corridor for anywhere from 4 to 6 inches of cold smoke. :o

_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
_
 

Just funning. Thought I would jump onto the hype train and get the weenies worked up. B)

Expand  

Choo- Choo... All aboard 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Thanatos_I_Am

Thanatos_I_Am

Posted
Posted
  On 11/28/2017 at 9:42 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:
  On 11/28/2017 at 8:06 PM, C.A.P.E. said:
Man the 12z EPS looks cold. That piece of the PV really drops the hammer late in the run to reload the cold too.
 
Expand  

Where do u guys get the LR (240hr+) eps? Dont care about getting it early. Any free sites with this data?

Expand  

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps.php

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Weenies should understand that as cold as the Euro ensembles look, day 15 is showing surface temp anomalies of around -4c over the Dca/Bwi area. That works out to around -7.2F. At Bwi, the average temps on December 13 are 46/29, so we're talking 38-39/21-22 for temps. I'm sure should that forecast come to fruition, we'll hear complaints that the models busted despite reality.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 11/28/2017 at 10:23 PM, mitchnick said:

Weenies should understand that as cold as the Euro ensembles look, day 15 is showing surface temp anomalies of around -4c over the Dca/Bwi area. That works out to around -7.2F. At Bwi, the average temps on December 13 are 46/29, so we're talking 38-39/21-22 for temps. I'm sure should that forecast come to fruition, we'll hear complaints that the models busted despite reality.

Expand  

Yeah this isn't going to be mid January brutal cold. If it verifies, it will likely be as cold as we need it to get the desired result. 2 of the 3 big storms in 2009-10 began with temps in the mid 30s. We had the block, the track, and the dynamics all in our favor, so marginally cold temps leading in were not an issue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
  On 11/28/2017 at 10:23 PM, mitchnick said:

Weenies should understand that as cold as the Euro ensembles look, day 15 is showing surface temp anomalies of around -4c over the Dca/Bwi area. That works out to around -7.2F. At Bwi, the average temps on December 13 are 46/29, so we're talking 38-39/21-22 for temps. I'm sure should that forecast come to fruition, we'll hear complaints that the models busted despite reality.

Expand  

It’s a good point and I think that’s the sort of multi day average you could expect. I’d expect a few days with lows in the teens and highs near freezing or below if that look verifies. Of course if we do get some snow cover...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Just had a chance to glance over the individual members of the EPS. The day 8/9 period that it looks as if the EPS and the GEFS may be keying on for a possible storm shows some promise. Not going to count them but it looks as if roughly a third of the members show decent precip totals (day 7 through day 10) of at least a third to a half inch through the region or close enough to DC/Balt corridor to warrant interest. A handful have an inch or more through the corridor. If we were to see a storm odds would probably favor rain or mostly rain at this time because of timing issues with the cold. 

eta: Thought I would also mention a handful get at least an inch or two of snow into the region with 2 members with 4 to 6 inches.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
  On 11/28/2017 at 11:51 PM, Bob Chill said:

Ooops. Typo. Yes, the 18z gfs won't make any friends in this sub. The Jags may have their first home snow game in history though. 

Expand  

Ha, just saw that.  I'm actually somewhat encouraged by the 18z in that there's some southern stream energy moving through the whole time.  Just all squashed to hell and gone.  I bet that boundary relaxes northward in reality, but not sure if it ends up close enough for southern slider action.  Either way, I think clippers are our best hope for at least the first week of the #epicpattern.  And I'll still take frozen brown ground over mowing in December any time.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
  • Author
Posted
  On 11/28/2017 at 11:55 PM, WxUSAF said:

Ha, just saw that.  I'm actually somewhat encouraged by the 18z in that there's some southern stream energy moving through the whole time.  Just all squashed to hell and gone.  I bet that boundary relaxes northward in reality, but not sure if it ends up close enough for southern slider action.  Either way, I think clippers are our best hope for at least the first week of the #epicpattern.  And I'll still take frozen brown ground over mowing in December any time.  

Expand  

Yea, I wasn't taking it seriously. Just pointing out that getting a mega block isn't how we get snow here. We need to be in atmospheric war zone. That's what made 13-14 so fun. Never had blocking other than the EPO but the pv drops were relentless. Progressive patterns (when the cycle is friendly) aren't all bad. 

Hypothetically....if we do get a period suppression depression it will relax at some point. It always does. That's when the big ones can happen. Nothing looks like a nina right now. Models are all locked into more of a nino pattern and it's weird honestly. Not sure the whys but Mitch will plead the case for a trough in Japan and the QBO working their magic. lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...