December 2017 Long Range Disco

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Haha. I gave up. It's too slow, and I am wondering if it will even get "corrected". I will keep it, but if wx.graphics adds enough of the other ens stuff I might cancel it.

WOO HOO!!! Up to day 7 now.  

I have been considering other options as well. The missing panels and slow loading times has been really working my nerves lately.

[CAPE]

[yoda]

We take the 12z EPS and run to the bank with it

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Are you paying for the ensembles because I'll be d@mned if I can find it on the site? But if you have a link, welp........

[Thanatos_I_Am]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Are you paying for the ensembles because I'll be d@mned if I can find it on the site? But if you have a link, welp........

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps.php  

There yah go

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps.php  

There yah go

Merry Christmas to you!

[Cobalt]

I'm just saying, both the EPS and the GEFS have upped the snow mean dramatically. Is this a sign of things to come? 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

13 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I'm just saying, both the EPS and the GEFS have upped the snow mean dramatically. Is this a sign of things to come? 

 

 

And that is just using 10 to 1 ratios. With all this cold we should probably use Kuchera snow ratios. Easily 20 to 1 ratios. Heck it's going to be so cold it will probably be 30 to 1 ratios. So triple these numbers and that should give you a good idea how much snow you will get in the next 15/16 days. So book the DC/BALT corridor for anywhere from 4 to 6 inches of cold smoke. 

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Just funning. Thought I would jump onto the hype train and get the weenies worked up. 

[Interstate]

9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

And that is just using 10 to 1 ratios. With all this cold we should probably use Kuchera snow ratios. Easily 20 to 1 ratios. Heck it's going to be so cold it will probably be 30 to 1 ratios. So triple these numbers and that should give you a good idea how much snow you will get in the next 15/16 days. So book the DC/BALT corridor for anywhere from 4 to 6 inches of cold smoke. 

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Just funning. Thought I would jump onto the hype train and get the weenies worked up. 

Choo- Choo... All aboard 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Man the 12z EPS looks cold. That piece of the PV really drops the hammer late in the run to reload the cold too.

 

Where do u guys get the LR (240hr+) eps? Dont care about getting it early. Any free sites with this data?

Eta: nevermind i just saw a few posts above.....ty

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Man the 12z EPS looks cold. That piece of the PV really drops the hammer late in the run to reload the cold too.
 

Where do u guys get the LR (240hr+) eps? Dont care about getting it early. Any free sites with this data?

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps.php

[mitchnick]

Weenies should understand that as cold as the Euro ensembles look, day 15 is showing surface temp anomalies of around -4c over the Dca/Bwi area. That works out to around -7.2F. At Bwi, the average temps on December 13 are 46/29, so we're talking 38-39/21-22 for temps. I'm sure should that forecast come to fruition, we'll hear complaints that the models busted despite reality.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Weenies should understand that as cold as the Euro ensembles look, day 15 is showing surface temp anomalies of around -4c over the Dca/Bwi area. That works out to around -7.2F. At Bwi, the average temps on December 13 are 46/29, so we're talking 38-39/21-22 for temps. I'm sure should that forecast come to fruition, we'll hear complaints that the models busted despite reality.

Yeah this isn't going to be mid January brutal cold. If it verifies, it will likely be as cold as we need it to get the desired result. 2 of the 3 big storms in 2009-10 began with temps in the mid 30s. We had the block, the track, and the dynamics all in our favor, so marginally cold temps leading in were not an issue.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Weenies should understand that as cold as the Euro ensembles look, day 15 is showing surface temp anomalies of around -4c over the Dca/Bwi area. That works out to around -7.2F. At Bwi, the average temps on December 13 are 46/29, so we're talking 38-39/21-22 for temps. I'm sure should that forecast come to fruition, we'll hear complaints that the models busted despite reality.

It’s a good point and I think that’s the sort of multi day average you could expect. I’d expect a few days with lows in the teens and highs near freezing or below if that look verifies. Of course if we do get some snow cover...

[showmethesnow]

Just had a chance to glance over the individual members of the EPS. The day 8/9 period that it looks as if the EPS and the GEFS may be keying on for a possible storm shows some promise. Not going to count them but it looks as if roughly a third of the members show decent precip totals (day 7 through day 10) of at least a third to a half inch through the region or close enough to DC/Balt corridor to warrant interest. A handful have an inch or more through the corridor. If we were to see a storm odds would probably favor rain or mostly rain at this time because of timing issues with the cold. 

eta: Thought I would also mention a handful get at least an inch or two of snow into the region with 2 members with 4 to 6 inches.

[Bob Chill]

18z gefs shows exactly why you don't root for mega blocking and PV hammer

[CAPE]

GFS has the general idea for the week of the 10th. Cold getting entrenched, and an active southern stream. Like seeing those lows moving up from the gulf and off the SE coast at this range.

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs shows exactly why you don't root for mega blocking and PV hammer

Lol 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs shows exactly why you don't root for mega blocking and PV hammer

We can root for it, knowing we will end up with a much more muted version of what its currently advertising lol.

[BristowWx]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Lol 

Yes you get snow in JAX.  Good for them. Comical. 

[H2O]

324hr and its treated as the gospel

[osfan24]

Those looks don't bother me at all at this range. It's not likely to be anywhere near that cold/suppressed as we move forward in time. Better than the alternative to me.

[mitchnick]

41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs shows exactly why you don't root for mega blocking and PV hammer

Perfect! 

[WxUSAF]

41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs shows exactly why you don't root for mega blocking and PV hammer

You mean GFS and not GEFS, right?  I don't see the GEFS yet... 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

You mean GFS and not GEFS, right?  I don't see the GEFS yet... 

Ooops. Typo. Yes, the 18z gfs won't make any friends in this sub. The Jags may have their first home snow game in history though. 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Ooops. Typo. Yes, the 18z gfs won't make any friends in this sub. The Jags may have their first home snow game in history though. 

Ha, just saw that.  I'm actually somewhat encouraged by the 18z in that there's some southern stream energy moving through the whole time.  Just all squashed to hell and gone.  I bet that boundary relaxes northward in reality, but not sure if it ends up close enough for southern slider action.  Either way, I think clippers are our best hope for at least the first week of the #epicpattern.  And I'll still take frozen brown ground over mowing in December any time.  

[Bob Chill]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Ha, just saw that.  I'm actually somewhat encouraged by the 18z in that there's some southern stream energy moving through the whole time.  Just all squashed to hell and gone.  I bet that boundary relaxes northward in reality, but not sure if it ends up close enough for southern slider action.  Either way, I think clippers are our best hope for at least the first week of the #epicpattern.  And I'll still take frozen brown ground over mowing in December any time.  

Yea, I wasn't taking it seriously. Just pointing out that getting a mega block isn't how we get snow here. We need to be in atmospheric war zone. That's what made 13-14 so fun. Never had blocking other than the EPO but the pv drops were relentless. Progressive patterns (when the cycle is friendly) aren't all bad. 

Hypothetically....if we do get a period suppression depression it will relax at some point. It always does. That's when the big ones can happen. Nothing looks like a nina right now. Models are all locked into more of a nino pattern and it's weird honestly. Not sure the whys but Mitch will plead the case for a trough in Japan and the QBO working their magic. lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just some minor run-to-run differences across the EPO regions and North West - North Central Canada :-)

 

[stormtracker]

48 minutes ago, H2O said:

324hr and its treated as the gospel

Huh?  It always snows in Jax in December.

[BristowWx]

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just some minor run-to-run differences across the EPO regions and North West - North Central Canada :-)

 

Yes I see a slight difference but it’s tough unless you look really closely