December 2017 Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

The -NAO again is a bit weak towards day 15 on the 12z EPS, but the +heights are in a better location and more focused than 0z. The NPAC look is drool worthy though.

[Yeoman]

Hard to take any of this seriously when no more than a week ago the GEFS and EPS had highs in the 30s for today for most of the area..  

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

While they both agree with a trough in the east by day 10, how they get there is worlds apart. Euro has been hanging a lot of energy back in the SW, and has been flipping back and forth run to run with trying to bury a cutoff low there underneath the ridge. 

Agreed, gfs sweeps the western trough eastward quickly and morphs it with the trop pv getting forced south under the blocking in the high latitudes. Euro leaves the western trough but still has the same idea in regards to blocking forcing the trop pv southward. I think the takeaway is they both have strong blocking that forces the trop pv into the east even though they get there different ways. I felt like the gfs made more sense earlier today. The 12z euro run gave me more confidence. 

The one thing I REALLY liked about the 12z EPS run is it's finally starting to juice up precip totals in our area d10+. 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

The one thing I REALLY liked about the 12z EPS run is it's finally starting to juice up precip totals in our area d10+. 

Was just about to post this!! Almost no precip for us before day 10 and then a fair bit in the last five days of the run. 

[WhiteoutWX]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed, gfs sweeps the western trough eastward quickly and morphs it with the trop pv getting forced south under the blocking in the high latitudes. Euro leaves the western trough but still has the same idea in regards to blocking forcing the trop pv southward. I think the takeaway is they both have strong blocking that forces the trop pv into the east even though they get there different ways. I felt like the gfs made more sense earlier today. The 12z euro run gave me more confidence. 

The one thing I REALLY liked about the 12z EPS run is it's finally starting to juice up precip totals in our area d10+. 

It’s good to see that multiple different looks end up at the same general point by day 10. Leaves a large margin for error in getting a trough into the east. As long as that blocking holds in the NA, and ridging is present along the west coast, it’s hard not to be optimistic about potential snow prospects.

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Even though it's a 10 day op panel, the 12z euro is going right along with the 12z gfs. Totally dropped the huge ridge in the east idea from the 0z run. 

Heck of a Rex block on that map. Wow. 

[dallen7908]

Remember when the CWG used to be conservative ... 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/11/27/extreme-weather-pattern-change-may-mean-cold-and-stormy-mid-december-in-eastern-u-s/?utm_term=.850b305727b1&wpisrc=nl_buzz&wpmm=1

[SnowLover22]

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[poolz1]

The weeklies look very impressive to me right through Dec.  I'll defer to the more knowledgeable folks on here for analysis as they do a much better job.  

The week leading up to Christmas....

[Bob Chill]

Weeklies look a lot like my avatar. Lol. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look a lot like my avatar. Lol. 

I'll give that half a like considering it's hr 672, but no kidding!

[Bob Chill]

What we're seeing on nearly all long range guidance now isn't uncommon over longer time scales. It's been a while so it feels novel but we've had a lot of blocky/eastern trough winters in the past. It feels like the WD index decided to pay us back this year. 

My favorite part of winters that resemble the current h5 plots is they are peristent. Not trying to get ahead of myself here but if things break like they are looking right now, we can expect mutiple periods that can work for snow in our yards instead of brief windows with big lulls. Still doesn't mean we blast past climo or anything. Snowfall can be cruel here no matter what the pattern looks like. I like tracking things so at least it won't be boring even if it ends up so so in the end. 

 

 

[stormtracker]

On 11/26/2017 at 1:35 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

Umm..how can I say this without sounding like a jerk. Consider the source?

Yup.  I'll sound like a jerk for you..he is awful

[CAPE]

37 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weeklies look a lot like my avatar. Lol. 

When is the last time the weeklies haven't looked pretty sweet? We on a roll.

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

When is the last time the weeklies haven't looked pretty sweet? We on a roll.

I'm getting sucked into the trends d10+. 12z EPS bumped mean qpf and 18z gefs is the first run to not show a neg qpf anomaly d10+.  We don't really want a mega block. I mean yea, it looks pretty on the panels but I'd much prefer to walk the line with a boundary nearby. 

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm getting sucked into the trends d10+. 12z EPS bumped mean qpf and 18z gefs is the first run to not show a neg qpf anomaly d10+.  We don't really want a mega block. I mean yea, it looks pretty on the panels but I'd much prefer to walk the line with a boundary nearby. 

 

Yeah its a bit of a tough call. Not that we really have any say lol. I think a monster west-based block in the Davis Strait or even further south is probably more useful when we have a Nino/strong southern jet, with a legit chance for a big, juicy Miller A, like a couple winters ago.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah its a bit of a tough call. Not that we really have any say lol. I think a monster west-based block in the Davis Strait or even further south is probably more useful when we have a Nino/strong southern jet, with a legit chance for a big, juicy Miller A, like a couple winters ago.

Juicy Miller A might be a tall order but a clipper that slows down and develops to our south may not be out of the question.  Couple inch cold powder type deal that stays put would be a win in my book.  

[DC2Winston]

I'd like a scenario where just about all of us in the MA/SE urban corridor (that can reasonably expect accumulating snow) grab some with a slider.  A stripe of 3-5" starting around CLT pointing up through Triad, Triangle, Richmond, DCA.  Have that roll through mid-December and stick around.  Then be primed for gulf low into coastal week of Xmas, with the usual players scoring big.  We can dream right?

The super needle thread for me as DC transplant would be Winston and DCA somehow getting around a foot from the same storm.  Not sure if that's meteorologically possible though?

As someone else said, this will be fun pattern to track if nothing else.  I'd rather be cold and dry with chances and less worry about precip type down this way, than app runner after app runner.  Aka Cold Rain.  Gross.

[Bob Chill]

24 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Juicy Miller A might be a tall order but a clipper that slows down and develops to our south may not be out of the question.  Couple inch cold powder type deal that stays put would be a win in my book.  

It's super rare to get a big miller A during the first half of December (or all of Dec) and not be rain. Atlantic is still really warm. The only realistic way I can envision a warning level event would be a wave coming up from the SW on the heels of a strong cold front. That's why I don't really want a big block. We need to sit right on the edge of a boundary and a huge -nao w/ a 50/50 would push boundaries far south of us. Otherwise a clipper could work for an advisory level event. Being picky is pretty crazy anyways. I'd do cartwheels for 1" that doesn't stick to the roads. lol

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's super rare to get a big miller A during the first half of December (or all of Dec) and not be rain. Atlantic is still really warm. The only realistic way I can envision a warning level event would be a wave coming up from the SW on the heels of a strong cold front. That's why I don't really want a big block. We need to sit right on the edge of a boundary and a huge -nao w/ a 50/50 would push boundaries far south of us. Otherwise a clipper could work for an advisory level event. Being picky is pretty crazy anyways. I'd do cartwheels for 1" that doesn't stick to the roads. lol

I know sometimes we kick around a 2-4 or 3-5 event as minor...maybe in upstate NY but that is significant for us anytime.  Yes we have had some mondo events but those are few especially southern half of our region.  Clipper is fine..snow tv makes me happy as well

[WxUSAF]

Clippers and southern sliders are what a pattern like that offers. Particularly in a Nina December.  You can see several vortmaxes rotating around on the last two GFS runs. One of those giving us a fluffy dusting-2” is probably the best shot before the 12th or so. Then maybe some southern stream energy can slide underneath us. 

[Bob Chill]

22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

. That's the beauty and pure fascination of this hobby ..imo. Any one of those vorts could become more energetic in the medium range and dig and amplify. And all of a sudden models go from dusting - inch to 4-8" type event .

And ..Yea...I'm sure most including me would be fine with 1 or 2 light events pre Christmas

Heck yea, I like tracking stuff period. 15-16 had a monster but on both sides of that one storm there was so little to track that it kinda sucked on the hobby side. 13-14 was almost too much...lol. By March I was looking forward to a quiet period and getting a normal night sleep but it still kept coming. 

I think my climo for Dec is between 4-5" or somewhere around there. Decembers have not been kind to us close to the cities since 2009. 13 was the only year I hit climo unless I'm forgetting something. I really hope we have a couple events this year. Seems like we have a better than normal chance of that but  better than normal and a lock are galaxies apart. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  I'll sound like a jerk for you..he is awful

Missed you Randy. Welcome back!!!

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, poolz1 said:

The weeklies look very impressive to me right through Dec.  I'll defer to the more knowledgeable folks on here for analysis as they do a much better job.  

The week leading up to Christmas....

It's a pretty darn good look. It would put us in the game for sure. The details of each specific system would determine our fate and it's way too early for that but we would be in the game for sure. 

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

What we're seeing on nearly all long range guidance now isn't uncommon over longer time scales. It's been a while so it feels novel but we've had a lot of blocky/eastern trough winters in the past. It feels like the WD index decided to pay us back this year. 

My favorite part of winters that resemble the current h5 plots is they are peristent. Not trying to get ahead of myself here but if things break like they are looking right now, we can expect mutiple periods that can work for snow in our yards instead of brief windows with big lulls. Still doesn't mean we blast past climo or anything. Snowfall can be cruel here no matter what the pattern looks like. I like tracking things so at least it won't be boring even if it ends up so so in the end. 

 

 

I'm with you. My mood for the upcoming winter is exponentially more positive then a few weeks ago. Seeing the AO tank right now (when we're used to seeing a +3 standard deviation ) is beautiful.  You're also right about the pattern not assuring us anything.  There were some examples of these type pattern leaving is frustrated. December 2000. December 2010.  December 2001 was a good upper pattern that never amounted to anything at the surface. And people forget the blocking dec 1995 lead to a lot of snow just to our north but we had to wait until the second round of blocking to pulse and fade to cash in in January.  But on the positive side there are examples where we did score plus IF this does establish as the default winter pattern then obviously the more times it reloads the more our chances of cashing in increase. Even our best winters require some luck but it's still easier to get lucky when your starting off with some face cards in your pocket. If this coming AO tank is correct then we just got dealt our first face card. 

[Interstate]

Jesus GFS OP. Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

[SteveVa]

For some context on the post above...00z GFS develops a coastal just SE of LI and SE Mass at d6

Quite a change lol

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

For some context on the post above...00z GFS develops a coastal just SE of LI and SE Mass at d6

Quite a change lol

Yes... but its mostly rain for SNE

Doesn't look like CMC wants to make that move though

[Rtd208]

 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Check out this crazy  ridge bridge on the 6z. That's a 1064 high poised to come down into the conus.

And if you're wondering how stable the pattern is,  there is a recurving typhoon off Japan at 372 hours. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

I've seen lots of talk about the typhoon rule and bering sea rule on forums but havent really dug into those theories much .   How's the verification on the typhoon rule .

Pretty good from what I've seen.  The recurving typhoon translates into a trough in the east in 7-10 days.  Since there's already one present,  it should result in a stable east coast trough. A bit of confirmation of the weeklies.