December 2017 Long Range Disco

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Perhaps. Don't be surprised if it ends up later. Often we have to wait a bit once this type of pattern develops. Don't be surprised if it's as the pattern breaks down towards xmas that we get a threat. But who would mind that!  What determines if this is a good winter will then be if this type of blocking reloads for another go again and again like it did in 96 and 2010.  Does it just relax and reload or break down completely. But that's way out there. I love the timing of when this sets up for the threat of some holiday season snow this year. 

I'm going skiing near the 28th, so it will most likely happen when I'm out of town

[frd]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Perhaps. Don't be surprised if it ends up later. Often we have to wait a bit once this type of pattern develops. Don't be surprised if it's as the pattern breaks down towards xmas that we get a threat. But who would mind that!  What determines if this is a good winter will then be if this type of blocking reloads for another go again and again like it did in 96 and 2010.  Does it just relax and reload or break down completely. But that's way out there. I love the timing of when this sets up for the threat of some holiday season snow this year. 

Based on continued improvements in the PAC and the potential for some help with the weakened and displaced PV in mid December the window of oppurtunity may extend to the end of the month , maybe even beyond a little.    

[Heisy]

I'm totally confused right now. I'm seeing people posting runs of the 12z GFS OP run & complaining? Are people misreading the maps or something? The 12z OP run today is one of the best runs we've seen yet. VERBATIM it would be cold and dry for a few days, but you can see at the very end of the run as the pattern relaxes we see an ideal MECS pattern as the PV moves into 50/50 position, block shifts west. and we see a short-wave primed to form a storm. 

 

PSU I am with you, not sure what is going on this morning lol. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Perhaps. Don't be surprised if it ends up later. Often we have to wait a bit once this type of pattern develops. Don't be surprised if it's as the pattern breaks down towards xmas that we get a threat. But who would mind that!  What determines if this is a good winter will then be if this type of blocking reloads for another go again and again like it did in 96 and 2010.  Does it just relax and reload or break down completely. But that's way out there. I love the timing of when this sets up for the threat of some holiday season snow this year. 

Agreed. I am just having fun with it. The ens have been somewhat suggestive of cold and dry. There should be an opp for a storm the week of the 11th though, but no way to tell what the details might be or what specific region might be impacted with winter precip. Today's GFS op run gives a glimpse of what is possible. And yeah relaxation/reloading will ultimately occur down the line(we hope) if the pattern has some staying power.

[Heisy]

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro 0z

Gfs 12z same time 

Just a little sorting out..lol . I'm sure it will change next run but this stuck out... and  it's day 10.

 

The 00z EURO last night had those warm temps in the Eastern CONUS because it dumped a huge trough out west while still forming a block. Eventually that trough would shift East though. You're post is a bit confusing though it comes off as you saying that EURO map is better than the GFS? 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I'm totally confused right now. I'm seeing people posting runs of the 12z GFS OP run & complaining? Are people misreading the maps or something? The 12z OP run today is one of the best runs we've seen yet. VERBATIM it would be cold and dry for a few days, but you can see at the very end of the run as the pattern relaxes we see an ideal MECS pattern as the PV moves into 50/50 position, block shifts west. and we see a short-wave primed to form a storm. 

 

PSU I am with you, not sure what is going on this morning lol. 

I haven't really seen anyone complain. I saw a couple posts regarding big differences between the 6z and 12z op runs. Who the hell would complain about a run like this?

[BristowWx]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some people have a problem with this????

That is pure weather porn.  I feel guilty looking at it

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I'm totally confused right now. I'm seeing people posting runs of the 12z GFS OP run & complaining? Are people misreading the maps or something? The 12z OP run today is one of the best runs we've seen yet. VERBATIM it would be cold and dry for a few days, but you can see at the very end of the run as the pattern relaxes we see an ideal MECS pattern as the PV moves into 50/50 position, block shifts west. and we see a short-wave primed to form a storm. 

 

PSU I am with you, not sure what is going on this morning lol. 

Looking over the posts again I am not sure anybody was really complaining. Maybe I am missing something though. The run was actually fun to look at. Epic blocking that bridges over top with the pv rotating down into the lakes. What's there not to like. But it is day 10 of an op run so it isn't really worth much.

[CAPE]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

Looking over the posts again I am not sure anybody was really complaining. Maybe I am missing something though. The run was actually fun to look at. Epic blocking that bridges over top with the pv rotating down into the lakes. What's there not to like. But it is day 10 of an op run so it isn't really worth much.

No one was complaining.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

No one was complaining.

Thought maybe he might have been referencing my Meh post? Knew I should have throw a little smiley on the end so people knew I was joking around. 

[yoda]

GEFS looks decent in the LR... strong ridge into PAC NW/AK... decent -NAO it would also appear

[Bob Chill]

I'm not mad at these GEFS panels....

 

 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

Just looking over the latest GEFS run and the consistency of its presentation of the -NAO over the last couple of days of runs has been fairly impressive. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just looking over the latest GEFS run and the consistency of its presentation of the -NAO over the last couple of days of runs has been fairly impressive. 

12z GEFS is impressive. Remember back when you and I were harping on the need for the NPAC to flip? Well damn.

[Interstate]

53 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Huh? The 12z GFS OP is one of the best OP runs I've seen so far. Unless you don't like a HUGE block and +PNA. 

I wasn't talking about fantasy land storm.  starting about panel 90... the H5 starts to have huge changes on the 12z from the 6z.  I never said it was good or bad.  I was just saying there huge differences in the H5 early in the run.

[Bob Chill]

Another one for good measure. The setup looks good for a SE or MA event. Not a prolific precip producer type of deal but I can easily envision a wave moving up from the deep south into the tn valley and off the NC coast somewhere. Just tossing the idea around. Way too far out in time to think much about it. I just liked the run in general. Has some of the important pieces we look for around here. 

 

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

I wasn't talking about fantasy land storm.  starting about panel 90... the H5 starts to have huge changes on the 12z from the 6z.  I never said it was good or bad.  I was just saying there huge differences in the H5 early in the run.

I knew what you were saying. Just pointing out that ops are bouncing around with how the step down unfolds. Personally, I think the "pattern changer" storm/front or whatever it ends up being will be faster than the deep dig into the SW with a big ridge in the east. I believe the quick drop with the AO is real and it's going to bully the pattern back to favorable within 10 days. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Another one for good measure. The setup looks good for a SE or MA event. Not a prolific precip producer type of deal but I can easily envision a wave moving up from the deep south into the tn valley and off the NC coast somewhere. Just tossing the idea around. Way too far out in time to think much about it. I just liked the run in general. Has some of the important pieces we look for around here. 

 

Yup. I have noticed that look on a few ens runs lately. That type of setup would be a nice way to kick things off too. An uncomplicated, widespread, light to moderate event.

[Eskimo Joe]

I'll fee a lot better once we see this change appear under 150 hours.  Been burned by too many D10 fantasies the past couple of years.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yup. I have noticed that look on a few ens runs lately. That type of setup would be a nice way to kick things off too. An uncomplicated, widespread, light to moderate event.

Biggest risk still looks like a miss to the south. We don't want to root for a massive -NAO and moon sized 50/50. Much better to ride the edge with less blocking. Cold and dry sucks. lol

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'll fee a lot better once we see this change appear under 150 hours.  Been burned by too many D10 fantasies the past couple of years.

IMHO- the change has already happened. The AO already dropped to -3sd and is unanimously forecast to do it again. The first drop was the "test" and it already happened. We're not chasing a flip anymore. That's what happened the last few years. We kept chasing a flip while basking in a gigantic +AO/NAO regime. 

[Cold Rain]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another one for good measure. The setup looks good for a SE or MA event. Not a prolific precip producer type of deal but I can easily envision a wave moving up from the deep south into the tn valley and off the NC coast somewhere. Just tossing the idea around. Way too far out in time to think much about it. I just liked the run in general. Has some of the important pieces we look for around here. 

 

 

One of the things I like to see a little farther south for our area is strong high pressure building into the midwest/Lakes area, especially this time of year.  There's a nice, big 1044 coming down out of Canada around 348, but it looks to roll in too slowly to do us much good.  But that's just over-analyzing a super LR GFS map that will change in 6 hours.  I actually like this setup for you guys and maybe western NC/mountains more than the piedmont down here.  Looks to be just a little too warm, without high pressure building in.  But that said, there should be no complaining about this pattern, if it turns out to be close to accurate.  The blocking is a thing of beauty and has been sorely missed for a long time.

[Wonderdog]

After looking at the GEFS, it looks to this untrained eye that the period December 12 to 14 will feature a coastal storm. Book it.

[WhiteoutWX]

I don’t know if there is anything I would change about the GEFS from day 10 onward. Just a great look all around.

[CoachLB]

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

and that's an ensemble mean.  I'd imagine there's some vodka cold in there only being mitigated by perhaps the lack of snow cover in the northern Plains, unless its established by then, and the fact that its still mid-Dec.  Money pattern that I would hope sticks around for a little while

[Bob Chill]

Even though it's a 10 day op panel, the 12z euro is going right along with the 12z gfs. Totally dropped the huge ridge in the east idea from the 0z run. 

 

[WhiteoutWX]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Even though it's a 10 day op panel, the 12z euro is going right along with the 12z gfs. Totally dropped the huge ridge in the east idea from the 0z run. 

 

 

While they both agree with a trough in the east by day 10, how they get there is worlds apart. Euro has been hanging a lot of energy back in the SW, and has been flipping back and forth run to run with trying to bury a cutoff low there underneath the ridge. 

[CAPE]

12z EPS looks cold..