December 2017 Long Range Disco

[showmethesnow]

Comparing this nights EPS run to Saturday nights run is like comparing Filet Mignon to a New York Strip steak. Both are tasty and tender but nothing compares to the melt in your mouth, cut with a butter knife wonder that is a Filet Mignon. (I myself like a good Fort Worth Ribeye from Texas Roadhouse, the more seared flavorful artery clogging fat the better. But I digress.)

Saturday nights run was the Filet Mignon up to this point in this young winter. Pleasing to the eye, easy to chew on and it left a pleasurable aftertaste and feeling of satisfaction after being devoured. Last nights run on the other hand was the New York Strip Steak. Tender and juicy (Juicy if you don't cook the he** out of it that is. Give me a good medium-rare. Never rare though, don't like the meat mooing back at me. And again I ramble on.) and generally a very fine cut of beef that is pleasing to discerning tastes. But after tasting the Filet Mignon anything less gives one a feeling of unfulfilled satisfaction. That is how I feel comparing these two runs.

In the last two runs of the EPS since Saturday nights Filet Mignon we have seen some changes in regards to some of the important features for day 10-15, if not beyond. We are seeing the EPS becoming less progressive with pulling the SW trough out. We have seen the blocking (-NAO) weaken and shift eastward from being western/central based to now central/eastern based. This change in blocking has also has had an impact on the pv feature that is being forced southward under the blocking in Canada. We are seeing the EPS being less aggressive with this pv feature, holding back quite a bit farther north to the pole. This in turn is now cutting off the attempted bridging of blocking from the west and the east that we saw Sat night. One other effect we are seeing is that the trough through the Lakes is now not digging to the extent that we were previously seeing.

Now I am not knocking last nights run, it was a good run after all. It is just that after Saturdays run it does sort of left a bitter taste in my mouth. The key feature we need to keep an eye on will be the blocking (-NAO). This potential promising pattern most likely begins and ends with how that blocking sets up for it will be the driving force on how the pv and associated trough set up through southern Canada/Northern US. Now throwing in a 50/50 in at any given time can offset a less then favorable -NAO but for all intents and purposes we want to see strong western based blocking for our region to give us our best potential. Move that eastward and/or weaken it and the best potential then moves northeastward. We have seen a bit of flex with the blocking placement and strength over the last few days on the models so the shifting eastward and weakening of the block we saw over the last two runs of the EPS can definitely be attributed to that. Let us just hope it is not the beginning of a trend such as we just saw previously. But only time will tell in that regards.  

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Comparing this nights EPS run to Saturday nights run is like comparing Filet Mignon to a New York Strip steak. Both are tasty and tender but nothing compares to the melt in your mouth, cut with a butter knife wonder that is a Filet Mignon. (I myself like a good Fort Worth Ribeye from Texas Roadhouse, the more seared flavorful artery clogging fat the better. But I digress.)

Saturday nights run was the Filet Mignon up to this point in this young winter. Pleasing to the eye, easy to chew on and it left a pleasurable aftertaste and feeling of satisfaction after being devoured. Last nights run on the other hand was the New York Strip Steak. Tender and juicy (Juicy if you don't cook the he** out of it that is. Give me a good medium-rare. Never rare though, don't like the meat mooing back at me. And again I ramble on.) and generally a very fine cut of beef that is pleasing to discerning tastes. But after tasting the Filet Mignon anything less gives one a feeling of unfulfilled satisfaction. That is how I feel comparing these two runs.

In the last two runs of the EPS since Saturday nights Filet Mignon we have seen some changes in regards to some of the important features for day 10-15, if not beyond. We are seeing the EPS becoming less progressive with pulling the SW trough out. We have seen the blocking (-NAO) weaken and shift eastward from being western/central based to now central/eastern based. This change in blocking has also has had an impact on the pv feature that is being forced southward under the blocking in Canada. We are seeing the EPS being less aggressive with this pv feature, holding back quite a bit farther north to the pole. This in turn is now cutting off the attempted bridging of blocking from the west and the east that we saw Sat night. One other effect we are seeing is that the trough through the Lakes is now not digging to the extent that we were previously seeing.

Now I am not knocking last nights run, it was a good run after all. It is just that after Saturdays run it does sort of left a bitter taste in my mouth. The key feature we need to keep an eye on will be the blocking (-NAO). This potential promising pattern most likely begins and ends with how that blocking sets up for it will be the driving force on how the pv and associated trough set up through southern Canada/Northern US. Now throwing in a 50/50 in at any given time can offset a less then favorable -NAO but for all intents and purposes we want to see strong western based blocking for our region to give us our best potential. Move that eastward and/or weaken it and the best potential then moves northeastward. We have seen a bit of flex with the blocking placement and strength over the last few days on the models so the shifting eastward and weakening of the block we saw over the last two runs of the EPS can definitely be attributed to that. Let us just hope it is not the beginning of a trend such as we just saw previously. But only time will tell in that regards.  

I pretty quickly glanced over the GEFS and the EPS, and thought both were a tad less impressive as well, mostly with the NAO block, and thus not quite as cold in the east(in the case of the GFS the trough is not  as deep). Agree this is subtle stuff, for now, but something to watch(trend going forward?). Not like we haven't seen this before, lol. I even looked at the GEPS, and it has the NA block pretty far to the east now at the end of the run

[showmethesnow]

49 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I pretty quickly glanced over the GEFS and the EPS, and thought both were a tad less impressive as well, mostly with the NAO block, and thus not quite as cold in the east(in the case of the GFS the trough is not  as deep). Agree this is subtle stuff, for now, but something to watch(trend going forward?). Not like we haven't seen this before, lol. I even looked at the GEPS, and it has the NA block pretty far to the east now at the end of the run

I actually liked one thing about the overnight GEFS. The blocking, which I believe is key, I thought had improved from the 12Z run. It has strengthened, especially the western blocking, and we saw a slight shifting southward/westward of the mean -NAO through day 11-16. We are also now seeing an attempted bridging of the blocking over top as well as an attempt to pinch off the pv above the lakes. But just one run and we have a ton of runs to get through before we have a clear idea what we are dealing with.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hopefully it doesn't turn into Salisbury steak..lol. .....( remember that) . A couple days ago the current 4/5 day storm was digging nice on models helping pumping up hieghts in the nao area now models have weakened that trough and it's further north as well. That's just one little feature I've watched . Nice analysis as usual. 

Yeah, noticed that as well. Really hadn't liked the overall setup for that feature but was keeping half an eye on it nether the less to see how it might set the stage for later on.

This time of year I will settle for Salisbury steak, just don't throw me a can of Alpo.

[CAPE]

32 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I actually liked one thing about the overnight GEFS. The blocking, which I believe is key, I thought had improved from the 12Z run. It has strengthened, especially the western blocking, and we saw a slight shifting southward/westward of the mean -NAO through day 11-16. We are also now seeing an attempted bridging of the blocking over top as well as an attempt to pinch off the pv above the lakes. But just one run and we have a ton of runs to get through before we have a clear idea what we are dealing with.

I went back and looked at the last 4 runs of the GEFS, and you are right. Not much difference with the NAO. I think what caught my eye on the 0z run was a notably more shallow trough towards the end of the run. Looking at today's 6z run, its back to a deeper eastern US trough. The 0z EPS is weaker/further east with the NA block, and not as cold- it has a noticeably less impressive area of -850t anomalies compared to previous runs in the central/eastern US. The 12z run will probably be back to epic.

[mitchnick]

It's a real bias for the models to overdo blocks, so no one who's been on the boards a while should be surprised if/when it happens.  Add to that the tendency for seasonal patterns to repeat,  and we should accept that blocking we just had will be close to what we will see, but with subtle changes since it'll be December and not November. We will never see the subtle changes on the ensembles as their resolution is so low, but they are good with the major features. So at this point,  we will need to wait for the operational models to get in range where their resolution is highest (10 days at the.minimum I would guess.)  But do expect something similar to what we've just had despite what the ensembles have advertised or may advertise over the coming days. How that shakes out for snow chances is unknown by this weenie. 

[gymengineer]

11 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Many of our big storms come at the end of a favorable period. Jan 96, Dec 09, Feb 2010, and Jan 16 were all followed by a warmup/melt off. I think PD1 was similar but i cant remember clearly. I know i was off school for a week. PD2 was money. It kept on coming into March. The flip from a neg to pos NAO is great for big storms but sucks for retention. 

Yup, warmed to 55 F three days later. 

[stormtracker]

Well, I'm back from hibernation. What did I miss?  I hear that Bob Chill is calling for Jan 96 in about 2 weeks.

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, I'm back from hibernation. What did I miss?  I hear that Bob Chill is calling for Jan 96 in about 2 weeks.

You really haven't missed anything. We're tracking a d10 pattern change like a hawk. That's about it. The short version is the temps look good but ens all look drier than normal during the period. A perfect block isn't that exciting when there is no precip. lol

[CAPE]

Since the weather is boring and we need some drama around here as we await the pattern change, I proclaim that the 12z EPS is going to be huge. The last 2 runs have really backed off on the strong, west based -NAO idea. Might not mean much, but no one should be surprised if that trend continues. This will be a good test for some potential early jumpers. Is the panic room even open yet?

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I went back and looked at the last 4 runs of the GEFS, and you are right. Not much difference with the NAO. I think what caught my eye on the 0z run was a notably more shallow trough towards the end of the run. Looking at today's 6z run, its back to a deeper eastern US trough. The 0z EPS is weaker/further east with the NA block, and not as cold- it has a noticeably less impressive area of -850t anomalies compared to previous runs in the central/eastern US. The 12z run will probably be back to epic.

I am more concerned with how the GEFS handles the blocking in the coming days more so then the EPS. Not an absolute but generally the GEFS was much more consistent with the overall look of the blocking in the longer range vs the EPS which was somewhat jumpy when it came to the days surrounding Thanksgiving. The EPS only started settling down with the blocking when it began reaching the mid range. So for the next 2 maybe 3 days I will take the EPS output with a grain of salt as I would not be surprised to see it show noticeable changes with the blocking. The GEFS on the other hand I will watch much closer. This is roughly the point in time for the Thanksgiving period that we began to see it shift and weaken the blocking after days of decent consistency before hand.

[showmethesnow]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Since the weather is boring and we need some drama around here as we await the pattern change, I proclaim that the 12z EPS is going to be huge. The last 2 runs have really backed off on the strong, west based -NAO idea. Might not mean much, but no one should be surprised if that trend continues. This will be a good test for some potential early jumpers. Is the panic room even open yet?

Think @WxWatcher007 is busy fluffing the pillows and laying chocolate on them at this time.

[BristowWx]

14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Think @WxWatcher007 is busy fluffing the pillows and laying chocolate on them at this time.

I checked in online... so I am waiting at the door like a black Friday shopper looking for a t.v. and discount tupperware

[Bob Chill]

I accidentally posted in the winter thread. There's some decent snow analogs showing up on CPC d11+

[Cobalt]

Dunno if this means anything, but the CFS has been trending colder for December. Then again, it's the CFS

[frd]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

I am more concerned with how the GEFS handles the blocking in the coming days more so then the EPS. Not an absolute but generally the GEFS was much more consistent with the overall look of the blocking in the longer range vs the EPS which was somewhat jumpy when it came to the days surrounding Thanksgiving. The EPS only started settling down with the blocking when it began reaching the mid range. So for the next 2 maybe 3 days I will take the EPS output with a grain of salt as I would not be surprised to see it show noticeable changes with the blocking. The GEFS on the other hand I will watch much closer. This is roughly the point in time for the Thanksgiving period that we began to see it shift and weaken the blocking after days of decent consistency before hand.

Looking this AM at the indices and the models from overnight , it appears that the + PNA signal is even stronger , I imagine thats our cold signal there. 

[peribonca]

48 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Dunno if this means anything, but the CFS has been trending colder for November. Then again, it's the CFS

Hindsight is 20/20 haha

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Hindsight is 20/20 haha

I think he meant December. It has been noted a few times in this thread that the CFS seems to have finally caught on to the upcoming pattern change.

[Bob Chill]

25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think he meant December. It has been noted a few times in this thread that the CFS seems to have finally caught on to the upcoming pattern change.

That's how the CFS works. Puts out every possible scenario for the first 28 days of the month then follows the global ens right before a new month starts. It's a great model because at some point in the last 30 days it always puts out the correct solution. You just need to figure out which one out of the 120 it is. 

[Interstate]

Well the GFS OP is night and day on it last two runs

[isohume]

18 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Well the GFS OP is night and day on it last two runs

Ugh, not again.  :- /

[frd]

Another update this morning from Jason: 

 

 

 

 

[VAsnowlvr82]

23 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Well the GFS OP is night and day on it last two runs

How so? Haven't looked at it.

[Heisy]

25 minutes ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said:

Well the GFS OP is night and day on it last two runs

Huh? The 12z GFS OP is one of the best OP runs I've seen so far. Unless you don't like a HUGE block and +PNA. 

[eurojosh]

Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

Huh? The 12z GFS OP is one of the best OP runs I've seen so far. Unless you don't like a HUGE block and +PNA. 

At this range I would prefer suppression to an apps runner.  Still a week before things even start to firm up for 11-17th window.  We're not in a bad place, including on this run.

[psuhoffman]

Some people have a problem with this????

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

At this range I would prefer suppression to an apps runner.  Still a week before things even start to firm up for 11-17th window.  We're not in a bad place, including on this run.

Agreed. Now I'm not taking any op at this range too seriously but why anyone would have problems with this gfs run is beyond me. This look is about what I want to see. Yea it's too suppressive as is but I don't mind that from this range. 

[showmethesnow]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some people have a problem with this????

Meh... Could be better. I guess it will do though.

[CAPE]

Still liking the week of the 11th for a MA winter "event".

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Still liking the week of the 11th for a MA winter "event".

Perhaps. Don't be surprised if it ends up later. Often we have to wait a bit once this type of pattern develops. Don't be surprised if it's as the pattern breaks down towards xmas that we get a threat. But who would mind that!  What determines if this is a good winter will then be if this type of blocking reloads for another go again and again like it did in 96 and 2010.  Does it just relax and reload or break down completely. But that's way out there. I love the timing of when this sets up for the threat of some holiday season snow this year.