poolz1 Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 No shortage of shortwaves traversing the PNA ridge and then coming down the slide...GFS not gonna get these right at this range but something should show up in mid range here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Granted its the CFSv2 but wow, thats crazy and the implications here are ...... Brrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Gfs found every way it could to beat us out of any snow. Odd because that never happens around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat_Fuente Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 10:40 PM, BristowWx said: Certainly a lake effect nukeYeah we could steal an inch or two down here from lake effect if we’re lucky and the mountains act the right way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 10:53 PM, mitchnick said: Gfs found every way it could to beat us out of any snow. Odd because that never happens around here. Expand Lol, yeah, that was a funny run. Could happen, but I think we at least get a little something measurable before the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Euro weeklies apparently keep the party going through the end of the run per NE subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 18z gfs is the perfect example of how I95 can get shutout even in a good pattern. Good thing it will change in 6 hours. We should start calling 18z "unhappy hour"....almost always goes against the grain for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 GEFS upped precip for the timeframe of the potential event next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 Once again, GEFS upped snowfall mean thru d8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 11:21 PM, Cobalt said: Once again, GEFS upped snowfall mean thru d8 Expand Wetter too. I like the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 ^0.1" is an "increase"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 11:16 PM, Cobalt said: GEFS upped precip for the timeframe of the potential event next week Expand This is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 11:24 PM, WxUSAF said: This is rain. Expand I said precip, not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 The WAR..beware the WAR...it could really split our forum down the middle west to east. If you are on the right side of it great. But this will look different later not worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 11:22 PM, WxUSAF said: ^0.1" is an "increase"? Expand 18z 12z Overall, an increase. Maybe not when compared to NW DC, but places like Leesburg, or Winchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 WAR much less pronounced and further NE on the 18z GEFS FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 11:14 PM, WxUSAF said: Euro weeklies apparently keep the party going through the end of the run per NE subforum. Expand Pretty sweet. Locked in for sure. Xmas eve anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 11:44 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Pretty sweet. Locked in for sure. Xmas eve anyone? Expand The only Christmas present we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 11:44 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Pretty sweet. Locked in for sure. Xmas eve anyone? Expand If we go snow less through Dec I will do something substantial. This is just too good of a pattern to not score. I might just log off and quit weather cold turkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 ^Unless the models are really effing with us, this upcoming period will be like nothing we have seen in many years for the first third of met winter, at least. I suppose we could totally strike out and have a bunch of cold/dry periods with rain during briefly milder stretches. But the consistently excellent look up top argues strongly against it. It will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 11:14 PM, WxUSAF said: Euro weeklies apparently keep the party going through the end of the run per NE subforum. Expand Which takes us through 1/15/18. Memories of 12/76-1/77. I just hope we get more snow than that winter if it's going to be even close to being that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 11:44 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Pretty sweet. Locked in for sure. Xmas eve anyone? Expand -EPO/-AO, and the occasional -NAO for the next month per Euro Weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2017 Share Posted November 30, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 11:55 PM, Neblizzard said: -EPO/-AO, and the occasional -NAO for the next month per Euro Weeklies. Expand I saw. There is more than the occasional -NAO. There are +height anomalies in the NAO domain almost the entire run. Its wicked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 11:40 PM, BristowWx said: WAR much less pronounced and further NE on the 18z GEFS FWIW Expand It's worth a lot. I have a feeling we will see the WAR fade away in future GEFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 19/20 of the GEFS ensembles show at least 0.1" of snow. Lots of red/pinks on this map. Take your pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 On 11/30/2017 at 11:58 PM, C.A.P.E. said: I saw. There is more than the occasional -NAO. There are +height anomalies in the NAO domain almost the entire run. Its wicked good. Expand New Cansips out tonight. If it starts the forecast with its ensembles, December at least will be cold, but I'm more interested in what it shows for January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 On 12/1/2017 at 12:03 AM, Cobalt said: 19/20 of the GEFS ensembles show at least 0.1" of snow. Lots of red/pinks on this map. Take your pick Expand I count only 5 skunks on that pic. Great odds of seeing at least mood flakes+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 On 12/1/2017 at 12:04 AM, mitchnick said: New Cansips out tonight. If it starts the forecast with its ensembles, December at least will be cold, but I'm more interested in what it shows for January and February. Expand Crap I forgot about the CanSIPS. Yeah it will be pretty interesting to see what the ens think the back half of winter might have in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 On 12/1/2017 at 12:06 AM, mitchnick said: I count only 5 skunks on that pic. Great odds of seeing at least mood flakes+. Expand Well I mean, mood flakes would be the best thing to happen snow-wise for December since 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 On 12/1/2017 at 12:07 AM, C.A.P.E. said: Crap I forgot about the CanSIPS. Yeah it will be pretty interesting to see what the ens think the back half of winter might have in store. Expand Recall the last run of Euro monthlies showed winter over come the first of February. Sure would be nice to pull another 13/14 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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