Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 GEFS again showing something similar to what I pointed out the other day during the d11-15 period. Centered around the 11th. Wave running the boundary. Better signal and less suppression than my previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 5:49 PM, mappy said: Where can I buy my ticket to ride this hype train? Expand Not hype, a real forecast. Something that we don't get these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 6:00 PM, mitchnick said: Not hype, a real forecast. Something that we don't get these days. Expand so, can i still get a ticket? the date in the middle is my favorite and I'd hate to miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 6:04 PM, mappy said: so, can i still get a ticket? the date in the middle is my favorite and I'd hate to miss it. Expand Your call on that. I made my call on the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 6:08 PM, mitchnick said: Your call on that. I made my call on the weather. Expand ok... clearly this jovial conversation isn't happening with you. moving on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Did anyone count the caterpillar's rings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Thought this was interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 4:55 PM, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: Well if you want Cold... you got it at the end of the run Expand That’s a brutally cold pattern for the east on the GFS The massive -EPO continues thru the end of the run and that’s probably the best shot to see a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 5:44 PM, mitchnick said: I'll repeat what I said the other day, 12/17-12/21 is when we get hit by a snowstorm. Probably from the energy in the SW, but I could be wrong on that point. Wouldn't turn down anything before it, but I don't see anything of consequence imho. Expand I still like the 11th-15th time frame for the first widespread light-moderate event, somewhere in our region, east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 6:25 PM, C.A.P.E. said: I still like the 11th-15th time frame for the first widespread light-moderate event, somewhere in our region, east of the mountains. Expand I am out of town that week for work so it would fit the timeframe. In fact, it has just become more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 6:25 PM, C.A.P.E. said: I still like the 11th-15th time frame for the first widespread light-moderate event, somewhere in our region, east of the mountains. Expand Maybe we're both right on a storm, which would be the best outcome. But my belief we miss the first shot would be a blown call. So be it. Give me the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 6:32 PM, mitchnick said: Maybe we're both right on a storm, which would be the best outcome. But my belief we miss the first shot would be a blown call. So be it. Give me the snow! Expand I get off of school on the 14th, so my best guess is that if we get any snow, it would be right after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 6:09 PM, mappy said: ok... clearly this jovial conversation isn't happening with you. moving on. Expand sorry about that.....reading and posting while driving requires short and sweet responses lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 6:45 PM, mitchnick said: sorry about that.....reading and posting while driving requires short and sweet responses lol Expand All good! I was trying too hard anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Surprised no one mentioned the Euro yet. That late next week “threat” (if you even want to call it that), stripes OC to Boston with 2-5”. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2017 Author Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 7:04 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Surprised no one mentioned the Euro yet. That late next week “threat” (if you even want to call it that), stripes OC to Boston with a 2-5”. Hmmm. Expand Verbatim, the only area that would see accum snow is SNE. It's mid-upper 30's at best for all of the MA and that's after some warm days before it. But it's just an op run that is vastly different than the one 12 hours ago. It's a mega-longshot but it's possible that the front clears and something runs right behind it. Nothing worth dissecting @ 8-10 day leads. I don't think we stand much of a chance until Dec 10th and beyond. Front side of a flip to cold in early Dec is rarely a way we get snow in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 7:04 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Surprised no one mentioned the Euro yet. That late next week “threat” (if you even want to call it that), stripes OC to Boston with 2-5”. Hmmm. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 temps in the mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 7:10 PM, Bob Chill said: Verbatim, the only area that would see accum snow is SNE. It's mid-upper 30's at best for all of the MA and that's after some warm days before it. But it's just an op run that is vastly different than the one 12 hours ago. It's a mega-longshot but it's possible that the front clears and something runs right behind it. Nothing worth dissecting @ 8-10 day leads. I don't think we stand much of a chance until Dec 10th and beyond. Front side of a flip to cold in early Dec is rarely a way we get snow in these parts. Expand Figured. Can’t see 2m temps on wx.graphics . Was going purely off 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Man, wxbell is garbage. Only out to 138. Gonna have to stop using it to get an early peak at the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 7:12 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Figured. Can’t see 2m temps on wx.graphics . Was going purely off 850s. Expand what? i just posted 2m temps from the Euro, from wx.graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 7:16 PM, mappy said: what? i just posted 2m temps from the Euro, from wx.graphics Expand Hmm. I don’t see 2m on this link. Could be using the wrong one though http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 7:18 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Hmm. I don’t see 2m on this link. Could be using the wrong one though http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php Expand yup, try this http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php you can zoom into Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 7:18 PM, losetoa6 said: Wxbell has been real slow lately and it skips random hours on runs daily it seems. At least for me it does. Expand Not to take the discussion away from the models, but the only reason I'm keeping it is so I can take a better look at the ens. Otherwise it seems kinda useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/snow-depth-in/20171208-1200z.html That has Boxing Day written all over it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 7:18 PM, losetoa6 said: Wxbell has been real slow lately and it skips random hours on many model runs daily it seems. At least for me it does. Expand Same here. It's been pretty rough sailing with them since I re-upped last month. Wasn't interested enough on an op run, where all the action begins in the extended, to search elsewhere for the Euro. Figured I could catch what I needed to know from all of you on the boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 Man the 12z EPS looks cold. That piece of the PV really drops the hammer late in the run to reload the cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 8:06 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Man the 12z EPS looks cold. That piece of the PV really drops the hammer late in the run to reload the cold too. Expand Keep talking. I am still staring at day 6 on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 On 11/28/2017 at 8:08 PM, showmethesnow said: Keep talking. I am still staring at day 6 on wxbell. Expand Haha. I gave up. It's too slow, and I am wondering if it will even get "corrected". I will keep it, but if wx.graphics adds enough of the other ens stuff I might cancel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2017 Share Posted November 28, 2017 The NPAC is a thing of beauty this run. On steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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