AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 La Nina is kicking, but mostly below the surface. We are rocketing into -AAM There was a graph of current pattern, and pattern of last few months -AAM propagating nicely and uniformly toward the Northern Latitudes /Poles in time for Winter. Strong cold air, held in place by -NAO creates a push, and maybe event around Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Great work! Looks like everything is working together. This would quite possibly be a gimmie if it were in January for at least some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 GFS showing a storm within the 240 hour range during that time period.. The storm is pretty weak and brings no snow to the D.C metro. It's a good start though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 16, 2017 Author Share Posted November 16, 2017 This is likely an event Rain or snow is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 16, 2017 Author Share Posted November 16, 2017 Super cold pattern day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Super cold pattern day 7 I like the long wave pattern, but temps are mid-40s for highs on Thanksgiving per 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: I like the long wave pattern, but temps are mid-40s for highs on Thanksgiving per 18z GFS. Many of the ensembles are much warmer too, 50s. It looks like a timing miss, and when the cold comes first in that long wave pattern, models always trend warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 40 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Many of the ensembles are much warmer too, 50s. It looks like a timing miss, and when the cold comes first in that long wave pattern, models always trend warmer. But the 850s are quite cold. I just don't like the trough position...seems we would want it further west like around LA when it starts to turn negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Cold air is on it's way out as this storm occurs. Euro kicks the cold out a lot faster than the GFS, quite a bit of difference at hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 9 hours ago, BristowWx said: But the 850s are quite cold. I just don't like the trough position...seems we would want it further west like around LA when it starts to turn negative. An often repeated line by me ... trough is too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 18z GFS, organized moisture is moving northeast out of the Gulf in perfect timing with incoming trough hr96-120. This kind of thing often trends toward a coastal low. That's the only chance until after Thanksgiving. But maybe a few inch snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 On 11/16/2017 at 5:25 PM, WxUSAF said: I like the long wave pattern, but temps are mid-40s for highs on Thanksgiving per 18z GFS. Considering it's seasonable on Thanksgiving and not 72 with haze, I'll consider that a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 00z GFS is messy with the system. We have about 24 hours to trend, it's no event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: 00z GFS is messy with the system. We have about 24 hours to trend, it's no event. Yup. We're out at that time frame where we look at the Ops and we say "looks good" even though it'll change a ton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Seeing as this event is now in the mid range I thought it best if we devoted a separate thread to the possible coastal so as to not clutter up the November long range thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 The setup on the Gefs looks even better for the possible storm off the coast around Thanksgiving. Showing heavier precip now reaching the eastern shore vs the 00z which had it a good bit off the coast. The snow mean now shows a swath of .1-.5 in southern MD and the eastern shore for that period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Seeing as this event is now in the mid range I thought it best if we devoted a separate thread to the possible coastal so as to not clutter up the November long range thread. Not happening jimmy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Euro says very La Nina like fast N Jet no coastal keeps any slp headed ENE and well OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Classic La Nina in Washington. Even the "storm" we get to enjoy tonight will be mostly light showers, then seasonable temps and DRY thru early December. The Midwest is getting treated to occasionally heavy rain and driving conditions on highways there are absolutely incredible with low visibilities and forward vision cut off not only by torrential downpours worthy of Harvey in Houston, but also by plenty of spray thrown up by passing trucks and crazy demented drivers in a hurry going in excess of 90 mph. These are very very fun, enjoyable highway conditions, even better than jebwalks in a 7 foot blizzard with -20 conditions and 55 mph NE wind gusts with torrential snow - and I will be DENIED all fall and winter, as long as the La Nina shall endure, which may well be until late 2023. La Nina Climatology indicates much above precip in the Midwest, much below temps. They will get all the rain that I crave, and then they will get utterly destroyed by record snow this winter. Of all storms this fall/winter, we will always get only the scraps - or nothing at all, while the Midwest comes out the WINNER, with the lion's share of all the heavy rain and or heavy snow, EVERY TIME. Midwest may even end up with the distinction of getting to enjoy frantic water rescues in midwinter! There is nothing better, than to participate in a frantic, life-threatening water rescue in the low sun season, with the water temperatures in the middle 30s and a current straight from Hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro says very La Nina like fast N Jet no coastal keeps any slp headed ENE and well OTS. Looking at the latest ESP the jet streak running up the coast doesn't look bad, not to mention that over the last couple couple of days of runs we have seen the jet take a more south/north trajectory. But I do agree, there is a very real chance that this heads OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 And once again we see an improvement on the Eps for a potential coastal. Unbelievable the changes we have seen on the EPS from 2 days ago to what we are seeing now. Temps for Thanksgiving have flipped from warm anomalies to large negative departures. From a trough in the west to ridging. From higher heights from our region up to the blocking around Greenland to now a pv planted just above the lakes with a deep trough extending into the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 We need this to show a negative tilt at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: And once again we see an improvement on the Eps for a potential coastal. Unbelievable the changes we have seen on the EPS from 2 days ago to what we are seeing now. Temps for Thanksgiving have flipped from warm anomalies to large negative departures. From a trough in the west to ridging. From higher heights from our region up to the blocking around Greenland to now a pv planted just above the lakes with a deep trough extending into the gulf. It’s almost like you’re wishing this to happen and it’s working so keep going! We are all counting on you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 12z GFS is good, 30% is a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 12z GFS tries to phase it 2 or 3 times. This far out, it's likely one of these will catch and it will be a rain/snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Just now, StormchaserChuck said: 12z GFS is good, 30% is a good call Snow, rain, or not, this will be a fun first event to track. There's potential for it to go either way, and I'm kinda excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 Maybe some big wet snowflakes. I agree, fun times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 17 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s almost like you’re wishing this to happen and it’s working so keep going! We are all counting on you Funny part is that I have no skin in the game. I will be out of town visiting my father-in-law outside of Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Funny part is that I have no skin in the game. I will be out of town visiting my father-in-law outside of Pittsburgh. Same with me. Unless this storm goes NW 300 miles and leaves D.C in rain, I'll be getting nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 I went thru all 50 individual eps members and while I agree that there has been some better trends with the mean, there isnt a single eps member that shows this as a significant coastal storm unless you live out over the ocean, and even those couple of members have a rather stretched out slp. One thing I am seeing on most members is the speed of the kicker headed out of the N Plains. The N jet, while showing some amplification, just seems too progressive. Could one of the N vorts catch the S Jet and change the game as we get closer? Sure. If the Southern energy wasnt so far South/amplified into the GOM I would be more enthused because the -nao, even given the fast flow in the N Jet, is helping to amplify the N Jet but because the vorts are so far apart in each respective jet they dont have a chance to phase. This is actually a case of the SW Ridge being too strong imo and causing too much amplification in the S Jet. There is still alot of energy moving around around the N Jet and one of these could resolve and trend more favorably. My point is the euro suite isnt pointing toward a widespread Thanksgiving coastal storm unless you live in the SE or out in the open water.....for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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