40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Enjoy, guys....will take questions as time permits. I have neglected a large portion of my life this week. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/11/winter-2017-2018-year-of.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Left ya a question in your post out on the main forum. Really nice work. Your commitment shows and a well thought out and educational post. We pray for blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 Yes, and I thought about that as I finished...I don't event count the snow totals until I have written the narrative. I expected the composite to be a bit snowier......but as you know, that is a cap shoot, anyway. The main point that I wasted to get across was that we can't just paint a yellow blob over the east this year. We have KU potential this season....just need the timing. I would not be shocked in the least if I busted low on snowfall...would be shocked if I were too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, and I thought about that as I finished...I don't event count the snow totals until I have written the narrative. I expected the composite to be a bit snowier......but as you know, that is a cap shoot, anyway. The main that I wasted to get across was that we can just paint a yellow blob over the east this year. Yeah I get it...just curious to what your thought process is. Good stuff dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 Honest to god truth, I was more concerned with fostering an atmosphere for critical thinking, than I was the snowfall. Regardless of whether snowfall potential is reached, the underlying point remains. As Will said, we are due for some blue-balled, tough luck, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Very good and educational post Ray, good job. I just have one question for you? Why don't you do forecast snowfall for say a location on Cape Cod as we are part of your forecast locations? Also wouldn't higher SSTs over the benchmark allow better chances for stronger to more intense cyclogenesis off the East Coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 I was thinking of you as I did the cities...I was ob fumes, though. I'll go back and add a cape city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Hours upon hours of reading material on the toilet. I like so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Nice job Ray you have explained the options very well. Snowfall is such a wildcard, one big INVT, your favorite can bust you low. Lol. I did get a chuckle that your snow verifications at Tolland were too low yet Wilmington too high, you just can't beat Kev. I think you need to add temps in your forecasts, it's the only thing needed in your dissertation. I appreciate the educational value of this. It's exactly what is needed. So many people strive to understand. Good luck, my money is on the slant sticker to eek out a win again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 cool. nice work ray. I've been looking at the Trans-Nino Index (TNI) myself. (Nino 4-1.2 normalized). It's late summer-fall value is the best predictor of snow here. Just looking at the OLR/precip rate anomaly fields, it appears as though nino 1.2 anomaly being relatively colder than nino 4 ends up peeling the tropical convection off of Peru and the southern Caribbean which reduces the "downstream" strength of the SE ridge and allows more potential for western US/Canadian ridging and troughing in Atlantic Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2017 Author Share Posted November 14, 2017 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice job Ray you have explained the options very well. Snowfall is such a wildcard, one big INVT, your favorite can bust you low. Lol. I did get a chuckle that your snow verifications at Tolland were too low yet Wilmington too high, you just can't beat Kev. I think you need to add temps in your forecasts, it's the only thing needed in your dissertation. I appreciate the educational value of this. It's exactly what is needed. So many people strive to understand. Good luck, my money is on the slant sticker to eek out a win again. I have temps in the composite at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have temps in the composite at the end. No I mean in your city by city stuff, like you do with snow. I think that and precip is important to a reanaylsis of methods, after all with snow you can be right for the wrong reasons and it would not show up in verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2017 Author Share Posted November 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: No I mean in your city by city stuff, like you do with snow. I think that and precip is important to a reanaylsis of methods, after all with snow you can be right for the wrong reasons and it would not show up in verification Yes, which is why I writer up a verification post in May. I was right for the wrong reason, Like Cohen, after the epic winter of 2014-2015, and I made that clear in the verification. Some of us chose not to, but....lol Which site do you use for the DM temp departures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2017 Author Share Posted November 14, 2017 I would also argue that snowfall can make your forecast look worse than it really was due to the high degree of variance and luck involved. Look at the mega nino of 2015-2016.....I NAILED that blizzard in my outlook....time frame, right down to type if cyclogenesis, Miller A, zone of max impact in the mid atl and magnitude....yet my sne snowfall forecast ended up ostensibly bad because of the $hit streak of a deer in Limestone, ME This, too, is what the verification post is for...the numbers sometimes belie the true quality of the body of work. I know what you mean, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would also argue that snowfall can make your forecast look worse than it really was due to the high degree of variance and luck involved. Look at the mega nino of 2015-2016.....I NAILED that blizzard in my outlook....time frame, right down to type if cyclogenesis, Miller A, zone of max impact in the mid atl and magnitude....yet my sne snowfall forecast ended up ostensibly bad because of the $hit streak of a dear in Limestone, ME This, too, is what the verification post is for...the numbers sometimes belie the true quality of the body of work. Your concentration on predicting snowfall amounts is admirable but since you go to such great lengths in your dissertation to spell out patterns, numbers such as temps and precip amounts will just add to the true quality of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 14, 2017 Author Share Posted November 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Your concentration on predicting snowfall amounts is admirable but since you go to such great lengths in your dissertation to spell out patterns, numbers such as temps and precip amounts will just add to the true quality of work. Yes, I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Amazing work, Ray A lot to learn from and digest. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 Absolutely Incredible as always. These have become the #1 Prediction I wait for all year. Your Growth has been Historic and Extraordinary from Weather Fan to Weather Master. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 6 hours ago, TheSnowman said: Absolutely Incredible as always. These have become the #1 Prediction I wait for all year. Your Growth has been Historic and Extraordinary from Weather Fan to Weather Masterbater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 I’m not even 1/3rd thru. At this rate I’ll be done by the spring solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2017 Author Share Posted November 15, 2017 Thanks for all of the feedback, guys. The fact that I reference this site several times over the course of the outlook is a testament to the instrumental role you guys have played in my accumulation of knowledge. I try to direct people to this site any chance I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 I like how you breakdown enso. For someone like myself who isn’t well versed in it, your description starts from the bottom up..... So not only am I reading your outlook, I’m learning what the eff enso actually is and means...a weenie all inclusive cruise so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 16, 2017 Author Share Posted November 16, 2017 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I like how you breakdown enso. For someone like myself who isn’t well versed in it, your description starts from the bottom up..... So not only am I reading your outlook, I’m learning what the eff enso actually is and means...a weenie all inclusive cruise so to speak. This comment makes the hours spent worth it, man...that's why I write it that meticulously. I'm glad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Great job! Even a novice can follow....lets saddle up for this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 3, 2018 Author Share Posted May 3, 2018 Done and graded. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/05/winter-2017-2018-verification-year-of.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted May 3, 2018 Author Share Posted May 3, 2018 Index Predicted DM Reading Actual DM Reading Departure From Verification Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -.16 +.38 +.54 Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) -.59 -.16 +.43 ENSO Weak La Nina (-0.8 to -1.0C) (NDJ) -1.0C (NDJ) Verified (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.47 -.40 -.87 Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.90 -.29 +.61 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) -.43 +.74 +1.17 City Predicted Snowfall Actual Percent Departure From Forecast Range Boston, MA (BOS) 45-55” 59.9" +8.2% New York, NY (CPK) 20-30” 40.9" +26.7% Philadelphia, PA (PHL) 15-25” 29.8" +16.1% Baltimore, MD (BWI) 15-25” 15.4" Verified Washington, DC (DCA) 10-20” 7.8" -22% Albany, NY (ALB) 50-60” 77.3" +22.4% Hartford, CT (BDL) 50-60” 56" Verified Providence, RI (PVD) 37-47" 49.8" +5.6% Worcester, MA (ORH) 65-75” 96.1" +22% Tolland, CT (TOL) 60-70” 83.3" +16% Wilmington, MA (RAY) 65-75” 88.5" +15.3% Burlington, VT (BTV) 70-80” 88.7" +9.8% Portland, ME (PWM) 65-75" 91.9" +18.4% Concord, NH (CON) 72-82” 87.9" +6.7% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Done and graded. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/05/winter-2017-2018-verification-year-of.html well done! look forward to your outlook this fall.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 2, 2018 Share Posted June 2, 2018 Good job. It was a pretty classic La Nina, about as text book as it gets, except for the Atlantic half that favored Tropical Atlantic ridge/+NAO/Vortex over Hudson Bay. Usually in La Nina you'll have the vortex in western Canada, but it was further east. I'm not sure one of those +anomalies all the way up eastern Canada type of Winter is possible in this strong ~10 year weather cycle. It was one of the stronger -PNA Winter's all time actually, which is La Nina... some people go against the grain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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