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November 17-19 Wind/Rain/Snow


Hoosier

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We had our first huge flakes morning of Halloween in western Michigan! The Nam is is crush job for me in Saranac, Mi, just east of GR. Nam laying down 2-4” for me tomorrow night into Sunday morning. I highly doubt it, but if dynamic cooling does occur I can see 1-2” being a possibility. Nam has been consistent with this solution as well. If the Nam still shows this solution tomorrow afternoon, I’ll start to believe I may get some accumulating snow tomorrow night into Sunday morning! 

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10 minutes ago, blackrock said:

You haven't even had flakes yet? I thought you had some down there. We had some pretty good snow showers here yesterday.

Have to clarify. I work in St Joe and last week they got snow overnight but I didn't see it fall. Had flakes in Marshall twice but I was at work 1st time, and asleep last week when my deck caught a dusting. Tomorrow I may finally cross paths with flakes flying, not just sitting, lol

 

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7 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Have to clarify. I work in St Joe and last week they got snow overnight but I didn't see it fall. Had flakes in Marshall twice but I was at work 1st time, and asleep last week when my deck caught a dusting. Tomorrow I may finally cross paths with flakes flying, not just sitting, lol

 

We've had flakes 5 times and sleet 3 times (total 6 days) since late Oct. Very light dusting during that brief record cold snap but still waiting on first measurable. It's coming obviously ❄❄❄.

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Anyone near Bloomington, IN?  Rutgers-Indiana game starts in 20 min and forecast, all along has been for rainy, windy conditions with a chance of a t-storm.  However, the HRRR is showing no real rain until about 2-3 pm.  Just looking for any reports or local insight for the 12-4 pm timeframe.  Thanks.  

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Some nice bright banding on radar.  Rain has temporarily waned here.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1014 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.UPDATE...
1010 AM CST

Still monitoring convective trends this morning, mainly across
central IL and central IN. However, focus turning more towards
the north where a wintry mix is likely today.

Latest radar imagery depicting the strongest development now
exiting the southern CWA and focusing more into areas away from
the CWA. Hail was likely limited to isolated reports of small
hail, with periods of heavy rainfall the more likely scenario.
Heaviest rainfall is ending, but with light to moderate rain still
likely today. As colder air moves across the area, have seen a
change over to a wintry of rain, snow, and sleet across portions
of northwest and north central IL. Cooling column will support
mainly a rain snow mix, however, think a brief period of sleet
will remain possible during the initial transition. Will likely
see this wintry mix expand into other areas in far northeast
Illinois, along and north of I-88, over the next 1-2 hours.
Confidence does lower with regards to this wintry mix getting into
other areas in Illinois today. Monitoring extent of deeper
moisture in place today, and timing of coldest air moving through
the area that will both affect the extent of the coverage of the
wintry mix. Do think it will be possible for other areas in
northern Illinois, between I-80 and I-88 to see at least a small
window. Overall, any snow accumulations should be minor and be
confined to grassy surfaces.

Also monitoring higher winds expected later today. Although
stronger winds likely area wide with gusts approaching 35-40 MPH,
think slightly stronger winds will be possible for areas near the
lake especially in northwest Indiana. Will keep an eye on wind
trends for these locations through midday. While strongest winds
should focus in northwest Indiana, a period of stronger winds
focused into the central and southern portions of Cook county
through midday could bring higher waves into these locations. If
this were to occur, some minor lake shore flooding could be
possible. Once again, at this time, think the stronger winds and
higher waves should be focused in northwest Indiana where the
current lake shore flood advisory is in place.

Rodriguez

&&
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* Primary threats iclude...
 
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible    
 
SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms will sweep across the watch area this afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Some risk of hail and a tornado or two also exists.

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