RogueWaves Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 8 hours ago, geddyweather said: Thunderstorms on the warm side, and then solid snow on the backside wrap around? LOCK IT IN. For real, the 3k has some eye candy, but I have to agree with the questioning of the thermodynamic profiles along with low's intensity and location. Hasn't been a low-980 storm south of the toll road in awhile (at least in my memory at present, I should research once I get home). Was autumn b4 Sandy. 2011? Oct or late Sept. 981 mb in NWOH iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Brutal lake shadow off of Lake Michigan. That looks pretty extreme though and I'm guessing it wouldn't play out to that extent if this type of track/strength actually plays out. Purple's over mby, smh..Fun to look at tho. One of these months, it'll be the real deal. Gonna enjoy another round of Gusty winds, which have been a theme so far. If this cycles back thru in winter, it will be impressive for this region. DVN only office talking SN that I've seen for this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Purple's over mby, smh..Fun to look at tho. One of these months, it'll be the real deal. Gonna enjoy another round of Gusty winds, which have been a theme so far. If this cycles back thru in winter, it will be impressive for this region. DVN only office talking SN that I've seen for this time around. LOT talked about it a bit this afternoon, but they mentioned the western 1/2 being more favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 00z RGEM is fairly similar to the 18z run, which means it is significantly north of the 12 km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 7 PM EST Saturday off the 0z 3km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 This is a lot of latitudinal spread for a 42 hr prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 Track aside, I give a bit more weight to the NAM thermal profiles as it should do a better job resolving situations like this where dynamic cooling is a big factor. Not even going to speculate on any amounts but at this point, imo, much of LOT's area will change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 3km NAM is lol worthy bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 The GFS is showing a little bit more snow each run. The 06z run showed a decent window for snowfall after the changeover from eastern Iowa points east through the eastern lakes. Accumulations will likely be DAB in many locations due to the wet ground, marginal temps, and lack of heavy snowfall rates. Still could be a nice window of light to moderate snow to make it look pretty wintry out there for a time. 35-45mph wind gusts simultaneous with the falling snow could make it look pretty legit for a short time. We all better enjoy whatever happens since it looks pretty quiet the following 7+ days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 12z Euro shifted south a decent amount, now taking the surface low through central Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Not even going to speculate on any amounts but at this point, imo, much of LOT's area will change over. Bad call will be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Bad call will be bad. Not sure. Most models do try to mix/change over. If the southern/weaker track verifies, then it would be very problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Not sure. Most models do try to mix/change over. If the southern/weaker track verifies, then it would be very problematic.There was never a chance that much of the CWA would turn to full on snow though. That was just a NAM pipe dream.3km was just horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 All in all it'll be a fairly average system. Severe, snow and wind chances all not too great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: There was never a chance that much of the CWA would turn to full on snow though. That was just a NAM pipe dream. 3km was just horrible. Check out the 18z NAM, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 Come on Chi Storm, you know you want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 Come on Chi Storm, you know you want it! F it, I'm inSent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 hours ago, King James said: F it, I'm in Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Should be a somewhat interesting day even though snow amounts will be kept in check... assuming it changes over. Any scenario ranging from no changeover anywhere in LOT (which I would lean against) to a period where it rips is on the table. Then in my area there is the added complicating factor of a still-warm Lake Michigan, and how much of a role that may play in precip type while winds are blowing onshore. Speaking of the lake, that area near the shore should get some pretty good winds... I would expect a period of advisory criteria there although no advisory yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 HRRR/RAP sort of look like a bit of a compromise between the NAM and GFS, but closer to the NAM. They are definitely picking up on the dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 I'm on board with a period of wet snow tomorrow. Looking like a repeat of last weekend here, although with much more wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 Getting some garden variety storms. And so it begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Should be a somewhat interesting day even though snow amounts will be kept in check... assuming it changes over. Any scenario ranging from no changeover anywhere in LOT (which I would lean against) to a period where it rips is on the table. Then in my area there is the added complicating factor of a still-warm Lake Michigan, and how much of a role that may play in precip type while winds are blowing onshore. Speaking of the lake, that area near the shore should get some pretty good winds... I would expect a period of advisory criteria there although no advisory yet. Lk is your friend...lake is your enemy! That distinct shadow zone in mid-winter is a Bonanza zone, but not in Nov. Surprisingly breezy here this evening. Stiff SE wind and cool temps. Has that feeling like winter when a good storm is setting in. Been too long since a decently strong system took this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 Here's the 00z RAP. Don't focus on the amounts with this. I would treat it as a potential rough idea of where the snow zone occurs though (through 21z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Chicago Storm is gonna get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: Lk is your friend...lake is your enemy! That distinct shadow zone in mid-winter is a Bonanza zone, but not in Nov. Surprisingly breezy here this evening. Stiff SE wind and cool temps. Has that feeling like winter when a good storm is setting in. Been too long since a decently strong system took this track. Yes! Lake Michigan is my least favorite thing ever in November! haha I wonder if we'll be able to change over to snow in West Michigan tomorrow evening. Of course, it doesn't look like a great chance according to the models, but then I have seen this before where they underestimate the dynamic cooling that can occur...and we get covered in 1 to 3 inches of cement snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 1 hour ago, blackrock said: Yes! Lake Michigan is my least favorite thing ever in November! haha I wonder if we'll be able to change over to snow in West Michigan tomorrow evening. Of course, it doesn't look like a great chance according to the models, but then I have seen this before where they underestimate the dynamic cooling that can occur...and we get covered in 1 to 3 inches of cement snow. Nevermind accumulations, I'd be quite satisfied to see my first legit flakes flying..baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 I literally have no idea if I will mix/change to snow tomorrow. Several miles inland, but gotta respect the lake warmth in such a marginal situation to begin with. Gonna need heavy precip to have a shot I think... more moderate rate won't be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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