harrisale Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 GFS looks good to get some snow in southern ON Saturday night into Sunday. Could see an inch or so in my backyard and more up towards Bruce Peninsula. Borderline thermals so areas near the lake such as YYZ might see some flakes but no accumulation. Pretty good LES signal on the GFS after the system passes to the east. Don't usually see that on the GFS, only the mesoscale models so I think that's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: They did well depicting the area that would receive snow, but were way off on amounts, before eventually correcting very short term. Yeah same for the HRRR as well. HRRR was slow to catch on with the snow at first, but then it became much more NAM-like when it was within about 6-8hrs. They definitely overdid the accumulations, although I will say they weren't too far off. It snowed here pretty nicely for quite awhile and it only amounted to a T. A degree or two difference at the skin layer would have made a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 7 hours ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, it had been hinting at a changeover to snow in the enhanced band. There are borderline low level thermal profiles so I'm not sure how much would actually accumulate. Like I said though, it would be interesting to see the globals synoptics with the NAM temp profiles lol Always a bit apprehensive about these backside rain to snow changeovers. Seems that lately either thermals are a bit off and the temp isn’t low enough until the precip is gone, or there is isn’t enough moisture getting wrapped around for it to matter. Been a long time since I have seen the old wraparound overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 7 hours ago, Hoosier said: Not quite like the most extreme runs (had it at that pressure around Lake Huron) but it's getting back toward something like that. If that depiction is close to accurate location/strength-wise, Northern/Northeast IN is guaranteed a LES band swinging through. At least I'll get to see some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 2 hours ago, IWXwx said: If that depiction is close to accurate location/strength-wise, Northern/Northeast IN is guaranteed a LES band swinging through. At least I'll get to see some flakes. Would be nice to finally see my first legit flakes flying. Last night's system got more amped last-minute, so the trend could be our friend over the weekend as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Both NAM suites get it into the 980's (3k almost in 970's, but that's to be expected from that thing 60 hours out) before exiting the US. 3k is snowfest, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 I wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Made me look. 3k shares the love with the rest of the subforum with its' most likely inaccurate thermodynamic profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Made me look. 3k shares the love with the rest of the subforum with its' most likely inaccurate thermodynamic profile. Exactly. But it's fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2017 Author Share Posted November 16, 2017 That 3k run is crazy lol. The deepening to that intensity also results in an impressive wind response, with an area of 65 kt winds at 850 mb on the back side toward the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 I'd say the winds on the cold side of the cold front would be most likely to produce 30-45 mph wind gusts in the Ohio Valley. That's something interesting, but previous runs of the GFS and Euro (a few days ago) would have suggested 70 mph winds on Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 18 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That 3k run is crazy lol. The deepening to that intensity also results in an impressive wind response, with an area of 65 kt winds at 850 mb on the back side toward the end of the run. Yeah, check out S Lk Mich - surf's up! Apparently the 3km is the new over-amped NAM model for eye candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Someone would get blizzard conditions if it flips to snow and meets time length criteria. Lots of ifs. I would get trained by multiple rounds of thunderstorms before the low blows by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2017 Author Share Posted November 16, 2017 3 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Someone would get blizzard conditions if it flips to snow and meets time length criteria. Lots of ifs. I would get trained by multiple rounds of thunderstorms before the low blows by. Somebody getting trained looks quite possible. Multi model signals for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Thunderstorms on the warm side, and then solid snow on the backside wrap around? LOCK IT IN. For real, the 3k has some eye candy, but I have to agree with the questioning of the thermodynamic profiles along with low's intensity and location. Hasn't been a low-980 storm south of the toll road in awhile (at least in my memory at present, I should research once I get home). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 3k not backing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2017 Author Share Posted November 16, 2017 RGEM is also pretty amped up. It does that sometimes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Those 3km NAM forecasts are pretty sweet. Would love to see something like that work out. Would be a hell of a wild day of weather for northeast IN/northwest OH. We had something similar to that back in December 2012. Started the morning with heavy rains that very quickly switched to very heavy snow and blizzard conditions. Never seen such a fast transition and immediate accumulation. EDIT: Radar loop from that 2012 event. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=2012&month=12&day=20&hour=7&minute=35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 Calling for a high near 60 Sat. with t storms and gusty winds in Indpls metro area. NWS must be looking at the 3k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 15 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Calling for a high near 60 Sat. with t storms and gusty winds in Indpls metro area. NWS must be looking at the 3k NAM. The GFS MOS is calling for 60 as well. I'm guessing the model blend we use is similar as well. It'll probably end up being warm before I can get outside to experience it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 40 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Those 3km NAM forecasts are pretty sweet. Would love to see something like that work out. Would be a hell of a wild day of weather for northeast IN/northwest OH. We had something similar to that back in December 2012. Started the morning with heavy rains that very quickly switched to very heavy snow and blizzard conditions. Never seen such a fast transition and immediate accumulation. EDIT: Radar loop from that 2012 event. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=2012&month=12&day=20&hour=7&minute=35 Yep I remember that one. 982 mb over Chicago. IIRC, the NWS was calling for gusts near 70 mph near the Indiana shore but I don't think it panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 18z 3km NAM painting a very interesting scenario for Northwest Ohio come Saturday and Saturday Night. Most likely it would seem that even though it could snow three or four inches, only about about an inch or two accumulates due to the ground temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 57 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Those 3km NAM forecasts are pretty sweet. Would love to see something like that work out. Would be a hell of a wild day of weather for northeast IN/northwest OH. We had something similar to that back in December 2012. Started the morning with heavy rains that very quickly switched to very heavy snow and blizzard conditions. Never seen such a fast transition and immediate accumulation. EDIT: Radar loop from that 2012 event. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=2012&month=12&day=20&hour=7&minute=35 Thanks for posting that radar loop. I also remember that. I ended up with 1.2" of snow with the wrap around. I also remember this forecast for that day (Mayan calendar): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 00z NAM is less phased/weaker/south. Overall, it has been running south of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 The 3 km might still be pretty jacked though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM is less phased/weaker/south. Overall, it has been running south of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 The 3km run seems like it might be struggling with convective feedback or something. If you look at it, the surface low jumps around to where the better convection is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 0z 3K NAM snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2017 Author Share Posted November 17, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover2 said: 0z 3K NAM snowfall Brutal lake shadow off of Lake Michigan. That looks pretty extreme though and I'm guessing it wouldn't play out to that extent if this type of track/strength actually plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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