Hoosier Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Still a bit far out, but we have general model agreement on a deep low moving across the region during this time. There should be severe potential (which may need its own thread) but I thought the non-severe thunderstorm aspects deserved a thread. The wind potential could be decent, especially if the deeper solutions pan out. This would have the possibility for widespread wind advisory to possibly high wind warning criteria. All in all, it could be a pretty classic Fall system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Still a bit far out, but we have general model agreement on a deep low moving across the region during this time. There should be severe potential (which may need its own thread) but I thought the non-severe thunderstorm aspects deserved a thread. The wind potential could be decent, especially if the deeper solutions pan out. This would have the possibility for widespread wind advisory to possibly high wind warning criteria. All in all, it could be a pretty classic Fall system. Waited until yesterday to clean up the whole yard. I think and hope this one will take down the rest of the leaves (mostly Oaks) and that I will only briefly have to sweep through the yard with the blower. There is something very satisfying about having the whole yard cleaned up! The local mets seem a bit unsure about this system...mostly timing differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2017 Author Share Posted November 12, 2017 1 hour ago, blackrock said: Waited until yesterday to clean up the whole yard. I think and hope this one will take down the rest of the leaves (mostly Oaks) and that I will only briefly have to sweep through the yard with the blower. There is something very satisfying about having the whole yard cleaned up! The local mets seem a bit unsure about this system...mostly timing differences. Still have a lot of leaves on the maples here. They went from yellow to sort of a dull brown with the cold temps (with a bit of green still). Should lose a lot of leaves if the winds pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2017 Author Share Posted November 12, 2017 If this thing gets into the mid 970s or lower before exiting the US, it would enter some elite territory. Very few storms have done that in November. That swath in the MN/WI area was achieved in the November 1998 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 4 hours ago, blackrock said: Waited until yesterday to clean up the whole yard. I think and hope this one will take down the rest of the leaves (mostly Oaks) and that I will only briefly have to sweep through the yard with the blower. There is something very satisfying about having the whole yard cleaned up! The local mets seem a bit unsure about this system...mostly timing differences. I did the same, and agree with the bolded - was actually a great day with little wind and my grass didn't need cutting, finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 WI and IL offices don't seem particularly concerned. MKX just mentions that wind advisory criteria may be met. Still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2017 Author Share Posted November 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: WI and IL offices don't seem particularly concerned. MKX just mentions that wind advisory criteria may be met. Still 5 days out. There'd be a shot at warning criteria imo, especially immediately post frontal as rapid CAA and pressure rises occur. But yeah, naturally not going to get as much attention yet being 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 I pulled a sounding off the GFS from over Lake Huron, and there is a window of sustained winds of 50-60 mph with gusts probably to 75 mph or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 Buffalo NWS is already mentioning the potential for high winds. "A strong storm system will move through the central Great Lakes next weekend. In the wake of its powerful cold front, wind gusts could exceed 60 mph. The strongest winds are expected late Saturday and Saturday night, and are most likely in a corridor from Lake Erie and the Niagara Frontier to Rochester and also northeast of Lake Ontario in the Thousand Islands region" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 0Z GFS is weaker, expect fluctuations though this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 12 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z GFS is weaker, expect fluctuations though this far out GGEM brings the entertainment though. That's an "exotic" solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 13, 2017 Author Share Posted November 13, 2017 The slow/stall on the GGEM in the MI area is a bit reminiscent of the 1913 White Hurricane storm, though that one was a bit deeper and the evolution to get to that point was different. Most of the memorable deep lows like this end up being more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 From the NWS in Indianapolis: A strong warm front will arrive ahead of a strong low pressure pressure system. This will result in rain chances arriving late on thursday night into Friday. Much of Friday will be spent within the warm sector and the ECMWF and GFS suggest favorable shear...but little in the way of instability and upper support. However models do suggest ample moisture in the area. Thus we will continue to go with a wet Friday...and watch for the potential for severe weather also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2017 Author Share Posted November 14, 2017 Models bouncing around a bit. Some weaker shifts noted. However, a lot of ensembles still deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 12z GFS further south. Low pressure area right along the Indiana/Ohio Toll Road Saturday Morning at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 I'm not a big fan of these systems that don't take off in intensity until reaching the lakes. Makes for sort of a meh system for the western part of the sub. Hopefully the system can rev up enough to deliver heavy snow to the lake peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: I'm not a big fan of these systems that don't take off in intensity until reaching the lakes. Makes for sort of a meh system for the western part of the sub. Hopefully the system can rev up enough to deliver heavy snow to the lake peeps. Not looking very good in terms of snow prospects. It looks like it intensifies too late...perhaps the eastern Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 23 hours ago, Jim Martin said: 12z GFS further south. Low pressure area right along the Indiana/Ohio Toll Road Saturday Morning at 12z. Mid-winter, that would make for some headlines. Just a fallen leaf-soaker right now tho. Too cold for severe peeps, too warm for frozen peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2017 Author Share Posted November 15, 2017 Still some model differences in the details (phasing/timing) with the NAM at one end and the GEM/UKMET at the other. The latter two would probably have better impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2017 Author Share Posted November 15, 2017 Euro is close to the GGEM intensity, but just a bit farther north. Locally speaking, would be nice to see this start bombing just a bit sooner to maximize the wind potential. A lot of the deepening happens during the day on Saturday though so maybe there can be a bit of a diurnal assist in mixing down some gusts (though clouds/precip will be around). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2017 Author Share Posted November 15, 2017 Watch the developing def zone type precip in parts of WI/IL/IN/MI. Models have the cold playing catch up but if it comes in a bit quicker, could have wind blown wet snow to make things look a little dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 27 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Watch the developing def zone type precip in parts of WI/IL/IN/MI. Models have the cold playing catch up but if it comes in a bit quicker, could have wind blown wet snow to make things look a little dramatic. Yeah, noticed suddenly the 3 globals at 12z have it getting into the 970's east in ONT. One raw raw Saturday eve/night verbatim, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2017 Author Share Posted November 15, 2017 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: Yeah, noticed suddenly the 3 globals at 12z have it getting into the 970's east in ONT. One raw raw Saturday eve/night verbatim, regardless. NAM showing more of a changeover on the back side. I'm not sure it has a good handle on this system yet though. Curious to see what it may show if it gets on board with the faster deepening of the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 15, 2017 Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: NAM showing more of a changeover on the back side. I'm not sure it has a good handle on this system yet though. Curious to see what it may show if it gets on board with the faster deepening of the globals. FWIW the NAM(s) did well with last Sunday's wet snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2017 Author Share Posted November 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: FWIW the NAM(s) did well with last Sunday's wet snow event. Yeah, it had been hinting at a changeover to snow in the enhanced band. There are borderline low level thermal profiles so I'm not sure how much would actually accumulate. Like I said though, it would be interesting to see the globals synoptics with the NAM temp profiles lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2017 Author Share Posted November 16, 2017 NAM is trying to do something. Marginal temps but verbatim, wet snow with winds probably flirting with advisory criteria... even the guys out west like hawkeye and cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: NAM is trying to do something. Marginal temps but verbatim, wet snow with winds probably flirting with advisory criteria... even the guys out west like hawkeye and cyclone. Paying special attention to it because it's on the NAM, which has been doing remarkably well with thermal profiles so far this year. Hints of a similar solution on the GFS, but to a far lesser extent. Just like last time. It'll come down to whether the cold air coming in behind can catch up to the precip before it exits the area. Bears at least some watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2017 Author Share Posted November 16, 2017 Not quite like the most extreme runs (had it at that pressure around Lake Huron) but it's getting back toward something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 16, 2017 Share Posted November 16, 2017 FWIW the NAM(s) did well with last Sunday's wet snow event. They did well depicting the area that would receive snow, but were way off on amounts, before eventually correcting very short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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