SteveVa Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 1 minute ago, tramadoc said: Thought you might like this from the latest AFD from Wakefield. Confident in period of moderate snow inland, given well-modeled narrow band of negative EPV dropping over the SW zones in the Piedmont (I-85 corridor). There could be a very narrow corridor of 4-6" of snow in this band. However, expect this would be very localized and hard to pin- down, so there is no need for a watch or warning at this time. Slightly less confident into SE VA. To reiterate...we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory over Hampton Roads for the late morning and afternoon. However, we are still a bit concerned with sharpening axis of F-Gen/OPRH depicted by the 12z (and now 18z) high-res NAM. Issue will be that we will have a very narrow window within which to receive moderate snows into Tidewater area, before best axis of moisture slides offshore. Potential is there for warning criteria snows (and criteria is 3" for SE VA). However, after collaboration with neighboring offices and WPC, will hold off with warning for now. Narrow window of potential snowfall is the primary issue. Should later model runs continue to depict this potential, an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for all or part of the Hampton Roads area may be needed. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk I was just about to post the discussion, that's pretty significant wording. The graphics they posted on Twitter note that Tidewater and NE NC could see up to 3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Maybe we get the 3-4" I was hoping for. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 6 hours ago, Cobalt said: Snowfall totals keep on getting upped just SE of Richmond, as seen on every meso/operational model as of now. I hope you folks get shellacked and get a really good event. I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere it that band someone measures 8" of snow. I'm rooting for you guys! def going to be close here in the Richmond area... Im keeping an eye down in the Knoxville TN area... If the precip can keep pushing around Knoxville thats a good sign for this area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Latest HHHR run looks really good for RIC. Looks like precip shield is expanding west. Wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with 5+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Good luck down there all... Hope you get some decent snows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 18 hours ago, Conway7305 said: Latest HHHR run looks really good for RIC. Looks like precip shield is expanding west. Wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with 5+ inches. ha ha.. I was actually thinking now that the southern/ beach area's are going to do better then here.. But who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 17 minutes ago, yoda said: Good luck down there all... Hope you get some decent snows Thanks! Wouldn’t be surprised if this system overperformed even in NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 @SteveVa I think we might get a couple of inches and maybe more if that low creeps closer.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 36 minutes ago, tramadoc said: @SteveVa I think we might get a couple of inches and maybe more if that low creeps closer. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk We're both in a sucky spot between to be honest. The band that slams Piedmont will likely dry up some and weaken by the time it reaches us. The coastal gets going too far east and slides quickly out to sea. You're in a better spot than I am for sure, there is a chance you get some of the coastal precip. I believe the rest of extreme NE NC still is in the game for a WSW criteria snow if the coastal develops just a tad sooner, MHX already pulled the trigger on the WSWs. Also, don't look at the 12z NAM, 0" for both of us while everyone else scores. Even Hatteras gets almost 6". We can hug the 13z HRRRRRRRRRR, dumps about 3-4" and still going at 2am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowchill Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Just hit 4" Powhatan, Snowing steady looks to be several hr's at these rates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, SteveVa said: We're both in a sucky spot between to be honest. The band that slams Piedmont will likely dry up some and weaken by the time it reaches us. The coastal gets going too far east and slides quickly out to sea. You're in a better spot than I am for sure, there is a chance you get some of the coastal precip. I believe the rest of extreme NE NC still is in the game for a WSW criteria snow if the coastal develops just a tad sooner, MHX already pulled the trigger on the WSWs. Also, don't look at the 12z NAM, 0" for both of us while everyone else scores. Even Hatteras gets almost 6". We can hug the 13z HRRRRRRRRRR, dumps about 3-4" and still going at 2am Man I was rooting for the coastal but the way the 12Z Nam depicts it is a worst case scenario for ORF/ VB. Its like it steals all the moisture right on our doorstep and slams southern OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 42 minutes ago, VBsurf said: Man I was rooting for the coastal but the way the 12Z Nam depicts it is a worst case scenario for ORF/ VB. Its like it steals all the moisture right on our doorstep and slams southern OBX. Yeah, 12z NAM would be the worst case scenario. HRRRRRRR has been hinting in the past few runs that the coastal precip could sneak back into VB and Norfolk. Has about 7" of high ratio snow for Sandbridge lol. I might become more optimistic for our area if the event keeps trending slower... Currently 34 degrees and overcast. Official forecast calls for some mixing but obs say the whole column is below freezing besides the lowest couple hundred feet. I don't think mixing will be a problem after initial 15-30 mins of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 hour ago, snowchill said: Just hit 4" Powhatan, Snowing steady looks to be several hr's at these rates wow... im at virginia center commons and barely over an inch here... Been snowing very lightly for the past 2 hours... Too light to add up on anywhere but the grass and trees/car tops at the moment... cars flying by nicely on 295 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Yeah, I am guessing, looking out my window at work here in Innsbrook, that it's 2" on grass but as you pointed out, too light to build up on the roads...was hoping for an early departure but doesn't look too bad on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 One thing we have going for us in HR is the majority of the "snow" will be near/after sunset for better accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 16z HRRRRRR and RAP both show 4"+ for VB. Verbatim they have a 4"+ strip of snow from Ocracoke into Hampton Roads. NWS usually goes with a blend of those two models when forecasting inside 12-18 hours. It has gotta be hard right now for AKQ mets because most everyone here expects 2" at most. In other news, temperature is down to 31 degrees on the closest PWS. KORF is at 32 at 1pm. Mixing ain't happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 16z HRRRRRR and RAP both show 4"+ for VB. Verbatim they have a 4"+ strip of snow from Ocracoke into Hampton Roads. NWS usually goes with a blend of those two models when forecasting inside 12-18 hours. It has gotta be hard right now for AKQ mets because most everyone here expects 2" at most. In other news, temperature is down to 31 degrees on the closest PWS. KORF is at 32 at 1pm. Mixing ain't happening.Am I in that? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, tramadoc said: 13 minutes ago, SteveVa said: 16z HRRRRRR and RAP both show 4"+ for VB. Verbatim they have a 4"+ strip of snow from Ocracoke into Hampton Roads. NWS usually goes with a blend of those two models when forecasting inside 12-18 hours. It has gotta be hard right now for AKQ mets because most everyone here expects 2" at most. In other news, temperature is down to 31 degrees on the closest PWS. KORF is at 32 at 1pm. Mixing ain't happening. Am I in that? LOL Yes you are. Verbatim 6" per 17z RAP... 12z NAM kinda crushed my hopes, but they're back up after a couple of good runs. I have to stop model watching, it's like a drug lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 wind seems to picking up a tad... but no real change in snow totals out here at VA center commons .. still the very light snow... id say maybe 1 1/2 -2 inches maybe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, SteveVa said: Yes you are. Verbatim 6" per 17z RAP... 12z NAM kinda crushed my hopes, but they're back up after a couple of good runs. I have to stop model watching, it's like a drug lol Whats the link to the RAP? I want my fix haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Yes you are. Verbatim 6" per 17z RAP... 12z NAM kinda crushed my hopes, but they're back up after a couple of good runs. I have to stop model watching, it's like a drug lol Very cool. Hopefully we see WSW's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 i have fam in va beach so i'm rooting for you all. we got another car topper here. sandbridge is a great little beach...would be cool to be there during a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Chestefield Courthouse, steady snow since about 8am. Doesn't seem to be lightning up. Radar shows nice bands coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Yes you are. Verbatim 6" per 17z RAP... 12z NAM kinda crushed my hopes, but they're back up after a couple of good runs. I have to stop model watching, it's like a drug lol Can you post a link to the RAP? I looked on TT, but can’t find it.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 1 minute ago, tramadoc said: Can you post a link to the RAP? I looked on TT, but can’t find it. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Use pivotalweather.com . It has a map of it, albeit from a CONUS view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, VBsurf said: Whats the link to the RAP? I want my fix haha 1 minute ago, tramadoc said: Can you post a link to the RAP? I looked on TT, but can’t find it. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk I use pivotal weather for the RAP, there might be a better site though http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap Be sure to select Kuchera ratio when checking snowfall amounts, you want that high ratio fix lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 Found it. https://weather.us/model-charts/rapid-us/north-carolina/snow-depth-in/20180118-0900z.html Just change parameters. How good is the RAP? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 the vcu ram cam looks about the same amount then here where I am (not much) the borderline temps with the salt def making a difference with this light snow... https://ramcam.vcu.edu/ Down to flurry at the moment here in VA COMMONS (1:49pm) radar really showing the drop off in rates/coverage area the past hour def seems to be transferring out to the coast... http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 17, 2018 Share Posted January 17, 2018 As of 3am per the RAP.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now