wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 30 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Zach just said he’s looking to tweak his forecast for tonight based on the models. Trending better at the last minute Lol-Who is this Zach and where is his forecast? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: Lol-Who is this Zach and where is his forecast? haha Oh haha he’s a meteorologist with CBS6 in Richmond 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, RVASnowLover said: Oh haha he’s a meteorologist with CBS6 in Richmond What was his original call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1-3. I’ll post hit updated forecast when he does 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 HRRR continues to increase totals. Either we’re in for a nice surprise or the HRRR is going to bust badly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, RVASnowLover said: HRRR continues to increase totals. Either we’re in for a nice surprise or the HRRR is going to bust badly I know where I'm leaning on that one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Stormpc said: I know where I'm leaning on that one... Other Hi-res models are showing this too so we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Noticed in the main thread that they’re talking about the Saturday system falling apart on the NAM? Could that mean less ice for us if it verifies? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Looks like if you start down 288 in Short Pump tonight you’ll be in heavy snow. By the time you reach Midlothian turnpike it’ll be mostly a mix, then down where it connects to 95 you could be in rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, SoCoWx said: Noticed in the main thread that they’re talking about the Saturday system falling apart on the NAM? Could that mean less ice for us if it verifies? Be careful in that thread. They mainly talk about weather up in the DMV area. Yes the NAM has almost no ice for them. Still has ice for our area Saturday night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 26 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Be careful in that thread. They mainly talk about weather up in the DMV area. Yes the NAM has almost no ice for them. Still has ice for our area Saturday night 100% correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 It’s getting dark outside, and it’s only 1:33. Pretty gloomy. It feels like 5:00 or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Sitting at 36 here in Midlo. going to need a temperature drop to feel good about any accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 The 12z Para GFS shows a good snowstorm around RIC, 4-6". It has done well this winter, looks like the HRRR. Concerned about ice on Saturday. QPF doesn't look too heavy but 12 hours of freezing drizzle can cause problems I would think, especially with 3" + on the ground. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, RichmondTarHeel said: Sitting at 36 here in Midlo. going to need a temperature drop to feel good about any accumulations. I’m not concerned about temps yet. We’re on track with that, maybe even a degree colder than forecast. Won’t get to 32 until after sunset 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 NAM shows wintry precip starting at 6 compared to HRRR showing at 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 So when we get 6 plus inches does that make all the early calls right ? Lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3-6” final call. Obviously the lowest amounts south/SE of Richmond proper where more mixing could occur. I think 4 to 5 inches in the city north and west is very possible w lollies of 6”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 System looks a little more potent than what models were showing. Thunder and lightning down in NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, RVASnowLover said: System looks a little more potent than what models were showing. Thunder and lightning down in NC Don’t speak too soon like last weekend... I don’t trust it until it’s all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Rhino16 said: Don’t speak too soon like last weekend... I don’t trust it until it’s all over. Oh I agree. It may not mean anything at all to us. Just an observation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Sleet mixed in with this rain coming through in Ashland. @ 36 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3K nam with more snow than it had at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I am hearing pingers here in Tuckahoe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: 3K nam with more snow than it had at 12z So did 12k -18z NAM 10:1 as shown. Now… I tend to look at "positive snow depth change" because it's more conservative and generally more accurate. It has 3" to maybe 4". However if you look at 18 Z NAM run from last night It had South Jersey at 3" on positive depth also but 4-6" on 10:1. I have family there and they were measuring 5 to 6 inches in Atlantic County and Cape May County this morning. Just an observation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Winter storm watch for Saturday. Around .25” ice. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 We could reach winter storm warning criteria in the Richmond area later tonight. Which means we could have a winter storm warning going on at the same time we are in a winter storm watch for Saturday lol. Haven’t seen anything like this since I lived in Northern Virginia in 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: We could reach winter storm warning criteria in the Richmond area later tonight. Which means we could have a winter storm warning going on at the same time we are in a winter storm watch for Saturday lol. Haven’t seen anything like this since I lived in Northern Virginia in 2010. Was the last time we've seen it here, too. Doesn't happen very often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Like the blues filling in on the radar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 hours ago, SoCoWx said: Noticed in the main thread that they’re talking about the Saturday system falling apart on the NAM? Could that mean less ice for us if it verifies? The main thread is not always our friend since it's very DC centric. Just gotta put some of the comments, analysis in context. Wakefield likes Saturday and evidently more than tonight, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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