RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Snowmadness said: Actually 6 more hours of snow not 4 You’re right so probably looking at a little more if the 12k is right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 50 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: cant be right. HAS 2-3 inches in newport news. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 No winter storm warning but at least looks like no shutout tonight. Unfortunately still looking like an ice storm Saturday. Temps at the surface below 32° Sat looks like during the event into Sunday. Still time for things to change there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I’m just hoping for a couple of inches of snow tonight. Once again going to be temperature watching. Is it going to be cold enough for snow to stick? Well see what happens for Friday night. Tough time believing the models these days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: I’m just hoping for a couple of inches of snow tonight. Once again going to be temperature watching. Is it going to be cold enough for snow to stick? Well see what happens for Friday night. Tough time believing the models these days Very true about the models. The ice storm looks like Sat afternoon into early Sun morning. And Wakefield has us in .25-.50 total ice accumulation. NAM just came in real nice after a step back at 6z. And it’s pretty long in duration as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, wasnow215 said: Very true about the models. The ice storm looks like Sat afternoon into early Sun morning. And Wakefield has us in .25-.50 total ice accumulation. NAM just came in real nice after a step back at 6z. And it’s pretty long in duration as depicted. Sorry I meant NAM for tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Sorry I meant NAM for tonight Just looked at it. 3K wasn’t bad. About 3” here. 12k was much better but haven’t seen a Kuchera map for that one yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Very true about the models. The ice storm looks like Sat afternoon into early Sun morning. And Wakefield has us in .25-.50 total ice accumulation. NAM just came in real nice after a step back at 6z. And it’s pretty long in duration as depicted. Wonder when they will issue an ice storm warning or advisory for that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Seems like nam handled first wave well, so hopefully it shows us some love 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwxfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Anyone buying what HRRR, RAP, and HRW short range models are putting out for tonight's storm? Granted I'm looking at the clown maps, but 3+ seems like the low benchmark for at least short pump area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, winterwxfan said: Anyone buying what HRRR, RAP, and HRW short range models are putting out for tonight's storm? Granted I'm looking at the clown maps, but 3+ seems like the low benchmark for at least short pump area. With mixing at times and temps an issue at the beginning I think looking at the models that have “total positive snow depth“ is smarter to look at rather than 10:1. So I think to two MAYBE 4 inches (northwest of 95) is possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Change over on the modles still showing about sunset /5pm timeframe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Yeah-Seems like the short term models have extended the period of time we see precipitation from this especially if you go from Richmond proper southward 20 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Change over on the modles still showing about sunset /5pm timeframe? Yes-Sorry I answered you without attaching LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 16 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: With mixing at times and temps an issue at the beginning I think looking at the models that have “total positive snow depth“ is smarter to look at rather than 10:1. So I think to two MAYBE 4 inches (northwest of 95) is possible. Here is an interesting note however regarding the different models. The NAM, the RGEM And a few other short term models handled the snow that fell in SNJ n E PA well last night into today with 10:1 ratios. Showed 3-6” and they got 3-6”. However they had pure snow and not mixing or sleet etc. So maybe 4 inches is possible here with what the short term models are showing this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwxfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Here is an interesting note however regarding the different models. The NAM, the RGEM And a few other short term models handled the snow that fell in SNJ n E PA well last night into today with 10:1 ratios. Showed 3-6” and they got 3-6”. However they had pure snow and not mixing or sleet etc. So maybe 4 inches is possible here with what the short term models are showing this morning. Yeah, if we could get 4 out of this, that would be great. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Short term models are encouraging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Latest HRRR is pretty nice. 4” with Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Can we go ahead and lock in the HRRR kuchera ratios? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 What is the situation looking like currently with regards to ice? I’ve not experienced an ice storm in my adult life, and I take Cary St. Road/River Road/Huguenot to and from work in Bon Air. I’m very worried about having to miss a few days from work because I’m scared to drive in icy conditions. I wrecked my old car two years ago in that monster December snowstorm and can’t afford another one. If it changes to rain from freezing rain like some forecasts are saying, or if precipitation is light, I wonder if it would be not as bad, or melt quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, SoCoWx said: What is the situation looking like currently with regards to ice? I’ve not experienced an ice storm in my adult life, and I take Cary St. Road/River Road/Huguenot to and from work in Bon Air. I’m very worried about having to miss a few days from work because I’m scared to drive in icy conditions. I wrecked my old car two years ago in that monster December snowstorm and can’t afford another one. If it changes to rain from freezing rain like some forecasts are saying, or if precipitation is light, I wonder if it would be not as bad, or melt quickly... Ice doesn’t look to be an issue here in the city until Saturday. Tonight should be a mainly snow event, maybe a little ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Cary Street and River Road when it is just 2 lanes can be a daunting commute with even a minimal weather event. Might suggest cutting over to Grove or even using Patterson and going over the Willey Bridge as you have a bit more margin for error, longer route for sure but if we get 4" of snow, might be worth it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Ice doesn’t look to be an issue here in the city until Saturday. Tonight should be a mainly snow event, maybe a little ice That’s good. I am worried about having to call out a couple days this weekend because of the ice on Saturday-Sunday. I work at the Trader Joe’s in Bon Air and since it hasn’t been that long, don’t have enough PTO yet to cover more than a day. I’m hoping beyond hope that it’ll somehow trend less icy at the last minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12z GFS still on for ice Saturday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 uh oh, do I dare venture into the main thread for analysis? Decisions, decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, JB Fins said: uh oh, do I dare venture into the main thread for analysis? Decisions, decisions. Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 28 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: Can we go ahead and lock in the HRRR kuchera ratios? Man, that's a brutal cut off in basically my back yard here in Midlothian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Short Range Model Trends are looking better for our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Zach just said he’s looking to tweak his forecast for tonight based on the models. Trending better at the last minute 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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