SteveVa Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Its just odd that they arent seeing what TWC is seeing Of course they see the possibility. I assume they'll go with some more significant wording if the 00z runs hold serve. AKQ mets always go conservative wrt winter wx unless there is an overwhelming models consensus (which there isn't yet) or we are inside 48-72hrs. Adjusting higher if modeling supports is easier than backtracking, especially in a place where any amount of winter precip causes chaos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Tornado warning up by RIC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
starrin Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 FRONTAL PASSAGE Virginia Beach @ this time (0930). Temperature falling from 58 has reached 44. Dry. so far - from the rdr it looks like most of the moisture is on the Eastern SHore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownS.EasternVa Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Meso models hinting at a dusting in extreme eastern Virginia tomorrow afternoon. Looks like some moisture gets pulled in off the Atlantic, heading north. Drops a dusting from Southside Hampton Roads thru the western Cues. Bay region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Meso models hinting at a dusting in extreme eastern Virginia tomorrow afternoon. Looks like some moisture gets pulled in off the Atlantic, heading north. Drops a dusting from Southside Hampton Roads thru the western Cues. Bay region. I'm thinking a non-event. 2 meter temps will be too warm. Forecasted high of 41 Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 We could see some flurries tomorrow according to some models and Eastern shore maybe even gets a dusting. I'm not too much into it since the boundary layer looks too dry. DGZ saturation isn't the best either. But hey, I'll always take some mood flakes. Wednesday event looks better tonight. Euro remains bullish and the Canadian just spit out a Euro-like solution. Potential is there for a moderate to significant event by our standards. Can we get lucky twice in one winter? Probably not but we shall see lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 For Wednesday the 17th. Looking like 1-2" is a safe bet. Seems to be over performing in Nashville area, which may be a measuring stick for the snow Hampton Roads gets. Counties just to the west of Nashville were upgraded to WSW this morning and totals were raised from 1-3 to 4-6. May be a good omen for interior southeast VA. Should be intersting if nothing else. Model trends have been marginally favorable with qpf. Ground temp will play a big role in snow ratios, folks who can get below 32 tonight will benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 We had some snow from freezing fog here in the West End of Richmond this morning. Pretty cool as I had not experienced that act of weather. Fingers crossed for 2-3" tomorrow but despite what models show, we rarely do well with these. I will not be surprised to wake up to brown grass and clear pavement tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 AKQ lowered their forecast to 1" for Norfolk/Va Beach. They decided not to issue a WWA either, hopefully the band doesn't dry up and we overperform. 33 degrees w/ a visibility of around 1/2 mile. If the fog doesn't clear out in time we could seriously undercut the forecast high of 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12 hours ago, JB Fins said: We had some snow from freezing fog here in the West End of Richmond this morning. Pretty cool as I had not experienced that act of weather. Fingers crossed for 2-3" tomorrow but despite what models show, we rarely do well with these. I will not be surprised to wake up to brown grass and clear pavement tomorrow. Yeah in these kind of storms Knoxville TN is always a good place to compare to this area.... But its all going to come down the dry air and where the heavy bands set up... gonna be close for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 AKQ lowered their forecast to 1" for Norfolk/Va Beach. They decided not to issue a WWA either, hopefully the band doesn't dry up and we overperform. 33 degrees w/ a visibility of around 1/2 mile. If the fog doesn't clear out in time we could seriously undercut the forecast high of 45.In their revised AFD at 1140 or so, they stated that looking at 12Z model runs they might put up a WWA for NE NC and SE VA during next package output due to increase in QPF. By the way, we won't hit our forecasted highs for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Good tip. I know DT is bullish and everybody, and I mean everybody here at my office follows him. We have had a couple of opportunities but none have truly delivered and I can't complain in a region that can go years without a snow chance when we have 3 before the end of January but the hate for the RIC in other threads is a bit annoying. It's like we get dumped on all the time. Bob C. put a nice PSA out there and did some clean up in the thread but wow, winter is not over and I will bet a dozen Krispy Kremes that Winchester, DC and other points will do far better than RVA when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Good tip. I know DT is bullish and everybody, and I mean everybody here at my office follows him. We have had a couple of opportunities but none have truly delivered and I can't complain in a region that can go years without a snow chance when we have 3 before the end of January but the hate for the RIC in other threads is a bit annoying. It's like we get dumped on all the time. Bob C. put a nice PSA out there and did some clean up in the thread but wow, winter is not over and I will bet a dozen Krispy Kremes that Winchester, DC and other points will do far better than RVA when all is said and done.I can't take the constant snark that DT has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Oh he is a piece of work. I totally respect his knowledge and can understand his weenieism toward the area but I know far better to engage with him at via any form of social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 He is just reading the models like most people... He does a decent job but, it’s not like he is predicting these storms out of a crystal ball... like some people think. If He was that good.. then he would only have (ONE prediction/forecast) Again, Like most storms around here it’s all going to come down to the dry air & if we get lucky or not with the heavy bands... Hence then 1-4 or 4-7 predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The fog finally let up but I think it's too late to hit our forecast high of 45. Currently 32-33 along the bay, 35-37 close to I-264, and about 40-42 towards the NC/VA border. Pretty big difference within Va Beach. AKQ should be issuing WWA's for the rest of Hampton Roads and extreme NE NC in the next hour or so. IDK why they held off in the first place, since 1" is enough to cause chaos on the roads around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?basemap=0014&layers=0040,0039,0017 you can already see the system breaking up a bit and why certain areas could get the shaft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 The idea that Richmond is crushing this season is ridiculous. We are at approximately 5 inches of snowfall from 2 systems. Yes from Prince George County down to the Beach this has been a great winter, but in metro Richmond that's just not accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, rmcwahoo said: The idea that Richmond is crushing this season is ridiculous. We are at approximately 5 inches of snowfall from 2 systems. Yes from Prince George County down to the Beach this has been a great winter, but in metro Richmond that's just not accurate And that’s what? Like halfway to average, correct? Granted, averages are made up of extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I don’t know.. For schools it’s been a bit above average I’m sure... The last storm my kids where out 4 days... for a 2 inch storm.... (and that was also with a weekend involved)... With the nice cold spell we had .. I can’t say this winter has been too bad around here.. (yeah the snow TOTAL hasn't been great ) But It’s been awhile since you could almost fully walk on the old ice pond.... ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I just want one big one and I am good. These small events are better than nothing but want one big enough where I am home from work and me and my wife can walk up to the bars near our house in the snow. BUT, that one big one could tear up the kiddie's spring break, they are already going to give up President's Day when they are closed tomorrow. Shoot, that 4 days they missed for that 2", granted the first 3 days I think were justified but the 4th, not sure about but given they have to take in account the whole county and that may have included some jackpot zones, I get it. Hope we get an over performer but looking at radar returns, it feels like i have seen this movie before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 12K NAM looks really good for you guys up around RIC, all the way to ORF, and down to ECG.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Kids in VBCPS have been out for 7 school days for the Jan 4 super-extra-mega-bomb-cyclone. They will probably be out tomorrow and possibly Thursday. On topic...I don't know what we did to deserve 18z NAM, has about 5" for ORF using Kuchera ratios. RIC might get fringed though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Kids in VBCPS have been out for 7 school days for the Jan 4 super-extra-mega-bomb-cyclone. They will probably be out tomorrow and possibly Thursday. On topic...I don't know what we did to deserve 18z NAM, has about 5" for ORF using Kuchera ratios. RIC might get fringed though. I really hope that everyone can score better than 2” with this. The NAM has been trending wetter farther east with each successive run. I am hoping and praying that it’s correct and RIC, ORF, ECG all see amounts 3” and higher. Where did you find the Kuchera graphics? Can you post ECG for me? Thanks in advance. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, tramadoc said: I really hope that everyone can score better than 2” with this. The NAM has been trending wetter farther east with each successive run. I am hoping and praying that it’s correct and RIC, ORF, ECG all see amounts 3” and higher. Where did you find the Kuchera graphics? Can you post ECG for me? Thanks in advance Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pivotal weather has the kuchera ratio maps Hi Res 18z NAM Kuchera ratio map for the height of the precip in our area. Healthy 12:1 to 14:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Snowfall totals keep on getting upped just SE of Richmond, as seen on every meso/operational model as of now. I hope you folks get shellacked and get a really good event. I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere it that band someone measures 8" of snow. I'm rooting for you guys! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Pivotal weather has the kuchera ratio maps Hi Res 18z NAM Kuchera ratio map for the height of the precip in our area. Healthy 12:1 to 14:1 Thanks Steve. Looks as if we are on the upswing with totals. I’d like to see at least 3-4” if possible around here. Hope everyone scores.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 What are the chances totals down this way go up?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Thought you might like this from the latest AFD from Wakefield.Confident in period of moderate snow inland, given well-modelednarrow band of negative EPV dropping over the SW zones in thePiedmont (I-85 corridor). There could be a very narrow corridorof 4-6" of snow in this band. However, expect this would be verylocalized and hard to pin- down, so there is no need for awatch or warning at this time. Slightly less confident into SEVA. To reiterate...we have issued a Winter Weather Advisoryover Hampton Roads for the late morning and afternoon. However,we are still a bit concerned with sharpening axis of F-Gen/OPRHdepicted by the 12z (and now 18z) high-res NAM. Issue will bethat we will have a very narrow window within which to receivemoderate snows into Tidewater area, before best axis of moistureslides offshore. Potential is there for warning criteria snows(and criteria is 3" for SE VA). However, after collaborationwith neighboring offices and WPC, will hold off with warning fornow. Narrow window of potential snowfall is the primary issue.Should later model runs continue to depict this potential, anupgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for all or part of the HamptonRoads area may be needed.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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