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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion


RIC Airport
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Ugh, glad I didn't stay up.  I know winter weather is a crap shoot around here but darn sick of models honking on 8-12" or significant ice storm days out and then I sound the alarm at work, with caveats, only to have it pull back within 48 hours with what might be another WWA event.  

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Gonna be pretty hard to get shut out for this event in the Ric area. Imo .  But prob will be another frustrating event, waiting for the changeover starting mid/late  afternoon Thursday. 

Dry air & rates are going to the  key again, if we can go from low end 1-3 to the high end 3 to 6 once the changeover...

 

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6 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said:

3K NAM is absolutely weak dry sauce. Maybe an inch if that. Granted the NAM has not been the most accurate for our area 

Seemed like 12k NAM was better? Transparently I’m not sure of the two which is better as far as how it handles winter events at this .24 to 36 hours out. 

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6 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Seemed like 12k NAM was better? Transparently I’m not sure of the two which is better as far as how it handles winter events at this .24 to 36 hours out. 

I’m not sure which is better either to be honest. Based on 12z meso data we could get anywhere between 1-5 

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I have a hard time believing RIC will transition from RA to ZR, IP, and then +SN. That never happens and last time we thought it would was February 2003. That storm, like I said the other day, did transition from RA to IP, but the SN, at least enough for apprectiable accumulations, stayed well north of the metro area toward EZF.

No scenario is ever really the same, just going on climo and what tends to happen around here. Obviously, I'm hoping for mostly snow and if everyone can get a widespread 4-8", that'd be cool.

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3 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

I have a hard time believing RIC will transition from RA to ZR, IP, and then +SN. That never happens and last time we thought it would was February 2003. That storm, like I said the other day, did transition from RA to IP, but the SN, at least enough for apprectiable accumulations, stayed well north of the metro area toward EZF.

No scenario is ever really the same, just going on climo and what tends to happen around here. Obviously, I'm hoping for mostly snow and if everyone can get a widespread 4-8", that'd be cool.

I’m honestly not sure what’s going to happen. Around 30 hours until start time and there is no model agreement 

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3 minutes ago, RichmondTarHeel said:

I can't think of a snow storm in this area that ever followed what was forecasted.  80% bust to 20% boom ratio.  Richmond is always a mixed bag.

At this point we should have a general idea but we don’t have that right now. It is rare here to go from rain to ice to snow but it’s possible. 

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