RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Hope this doesn't continue trending too far south and dryer. Not long ago, a good chunk of this was in PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 44 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: Hope this doesn't continue trending too far south and dryer. Not long ago, a good chunk of this was in PA. That’s my worry right now. 00z run will be important 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM 0z seems a bit warmer to start. Decent rain (had to zoom in, not too heavy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Looks like a good thump after the initial rain pulls through though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: NAM 0z seems a bit warmer to start. Decent rain (had to zoom in, not too heavy) You talking about the first wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Ice is getting too close for comfort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, RVASnowLover said: You talking about the first wave? 2nd wave- nothing our way on the first- should clarify, very little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Have about 2 frames of this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Kuchera still looks to give ~5”. I think we’re starting to zero in a bit more on a 4-6” event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM is definitely warmer. Mid 30s here Thursday night and still above freezing around midnight. Could be on to something. Something to look for on other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: Kuchera still looks to give ~5”. I think we’re starting to zero in a bit more on a 4-6” event Kuckera only gives us around 3” on the 3K NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: Have about 2 frames of this: thats rain for everyone. didnt think the euro was right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, ldub23 said: thats rain for everyone. didnt think the euro was right I wouldn’t go that far yet. Euro is just colder than the NAM which is why euro goes south. NAM is not as strong with the CAD so we get rain to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, ldub23 said: thats rain for everyone. didnt think the euro was right So NAM is correct but Euro isn’t. Got it. Off of one NAM run to boot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: So NAM is correct but Euro isn’t. Got it. Off of one NAM run to boot. Exactly. 18z NAM was big hit for us. Now not so much. Can’t go off a model with just one run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Didn’t end up bad this ONE run. Just lost some qpf. Need that trend to stop for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 You guys need to stop using TT crap maps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 https://dtwxrisk.medium.com/first-guess-snow-map-for-feb-10-12-53a4d7b1f16e 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I bit bullish there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 19 minutes ago, Westendsnowguy said: You guys need to stop using TT crap maps.... Those are two different NAM models. One is 3K and other is 12K. They use different algorithms. That 3K one you posted matches the 3K on pivotal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Inudaw said: I bit bullish there. I was shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Seems like DT is following the 12z UK and Euro. Let’s see what those models show at 00z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 24 minutes ago, Westendsnowguy said: You guys need to stop using TT crap maps.... No one posted ANY maps til you did so thank you lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Call me crazy but to be in the “negative bullseye” (much less precip than areas north and south at this range on GFS is actually comforting haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Call me crazy but to be in the “negative bullseye” (much less precip than areas north and south at this range on GFS is actually comforting haha. GFS has shit ton of ice. We can't do ice.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Gnite RVA peeps. Personally knowing it’s the Euro/CMC/RGEM, and even NAM to a point vs GFS I feel pretty good less than 48 hours out. Unless they cave later hahah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Hyphnx said: GFS has shit ton of ice. We can't do ice.. How much does it show. Bc looks like qpf is minimal now also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 0.15 ice 0.2 sleet for Thursday night/Friday Then another .5 ice later on past hour 84 into 96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 8 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said: Almost 60 here now wow. The high was 58. Ironically, the last time RIC reached 60 degrees was back on January 2nd. Not very many warm days this winter compared to the last couple. That said, it hasn't been all the cold either, January finished solidly above average thanks to fewer super cold nights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 22 hours ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Anybody here remember the Christmas ice storm of 1998. We lost power for 12 days here. It was a narrow swath that cut SW to NE across Richmond thru Henrico, Charles City and New Kent. Hopefully this won’t be as bad, but looking at these early models, has me worried. I remember it, we really haven't had anything since. There was a pretty good ice storm a few days after the 1/25/2000 snowstorm, which to this day, is still my favorite snowstorm of all time in Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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