eaglesin2011 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Ha ha. . It does look more north and a bit better put together...again it's all gonna be where the heavy band sets up and what makes it past the mountains/dry air.. Radar hallucinations till then... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Ha ha. . It does look more north and a bit better put togethet but again it's all gonna be where the heavy band sets up and what makes it past the mountains/dry air.. Radar hallucinations till then... I agree. It looks better on radar now than what the models have but we’ll see how the precip field shapes up when it gets here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Precip field just hits a wall and fades once it gets to about about the VA/NC border on most models now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Need this storm to move just a hair quicker and beat the low coming down into Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: Need this storm to move just a hair quicker and beat the low coming down into Maine Yes. That low in Maine is crushing it, literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Richmond is about 50 - 100 miles from the bulls eye. Let's hope that thing in Maine is weaker than modeled and allows the precip to come further North. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I read on the SE board that the 18Z Nam finally involves VA more but haven't seen a map or how far north that really means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, benjammin said: I read on the SE board that the 18Z Nam finally involves VA more but haven't seen a map or how far north that really means. 18z gets it up further North into VA, but misses Richmond. Idk if it's a dry slot or what, but it looks like Danville / Martinsville area gets walloped, but east of there gets nothing. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021010718&fh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, benjammin said: I read on the SE board that the 18Z Nam finally involves VA more but haven't seen a map or how far north that really means. Nothing really changed. Again once the precip gets close to us it just dries up. According to 18z 3K NAM you have to go to Danville to get any snow. Low in Maine must be pretty strong because whatever moisture tries to get us just dries up. I will say though the radar looks nothing like what the NAM depicts it should look like. Probably doesn’t mean much but we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Yeah, that may help me south of Lynchburg, but Richmond just doesn't seem like anything much is going to happen there with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: 18z gets it up further North into VA, but misses Richmond. Idk if it's a dry slot or what, but it looks like Danville / Martinsville area gets walloped, but east of there gets nothing. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021010718&fh=1 It’s weird how it’s doing that. Once you go east of Danville it’s basically nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 the low in Maine on the 18z 12k NAM is weaker and precipitation stays a little more together which allows for an inch or 2 in and around richmond. 18Z 3K has the stronger low more quickly and stops anything from getting close to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 If that low is strong we’re not going to get anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 I think its going to make it up here.. If we get hit with the dry slot is the main key... Its showing up in this area on most models right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 radar so far so good - not sure if anything is actually making it to the surface but should be a good sign to at least see some flakes *fingers crossed* Comparing to the HRRR - looks like that has had a good feel for this which did bring some light stuff into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Looks like a disorganized broken up mess to me but guess we will see how it looks in the morning... if it looks like we can squeeze out anything up this way besides rain. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 10 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said: Looks like a disorganized broken up mess to me but guess we will see how it looks in the morning... if it looks like we can squeeze out anything up this way besides rain. . It still looks like a disorganized broken up mess. I highly doubt we get much of anything out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Yeah...Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 In Spock voice "I must agree with the doctor's assessment" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Onto the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 8, 2021 Share Posted January 8, 2021 Sorry that this one didn’t work out for you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 12, 2021 Share Posted January 12, 2021 Something to watch for maybe around the 18th? Doesn’t look like much right now but it’s something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 18, 2021 Share Posted January 18, 2021 EURO gives us some great digital snow. Wish it was reliable at that long range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 12z Euro AND latest 0z GFS showing some real potential in the 7—10 day and for GFS beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Might as well go all in on this one.. might be the best shot we get. Not sure what February will bring. :X 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 It’s looking interesting but the way the models have been so inconsistent run to run I’m cautiously optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 7 hours ago, RVASnowLover said: It’s looking interesting but the way the models have been so inconsistent run to run I’m cautiously optimistic And of course after saying this the 00z EURO comes out and says nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 So far 12z gfs says more cold rain, maybe some mixing north and west for the 25th and the 28th really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 And the 28th too? I’m more interested in Thursday, I don’t believe in anything happening on Monday/Tuesday here. I’d love to be surprised though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: And the 28th too? I’m more interested in Thursday, I don’t believe in anything happening on Monday/Tuesday here. I’d love to be surprised though. Yeah for the 28th too. If you take it verbatim RVA is right on that line as it always is and we all know how that usually goes. Wild to see how low off SC. High to the north but can’t get enough cold air this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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