wawarriors4 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Thought y'all would want to see the GFS Ens for this Friday/Saturday thing, here it is FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 48 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Thought y'all would want to see the GFS Ens for this Friday/Saturday thing, here it is FWIW Thanks for posting. Would be nice to get an inch or two out of it. The ops seem to say no but ensembles keeping some hope alive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Normally we would be sitting in a good spot this early in the week but trends really haven't gone back in our direction yet.. Still time for a bump north but cant say odds are with us.. Dry air always seems to make it's way in around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Well got a 1 or 2 more days before we can throw in the towel. But we are on the outside looking in right now. :X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, Inudaw said: Well got a 1 or 2 more days before we can throw in the towel. But we are on the outside looking in right now. :X Agree. Haven’t tossed in the towel yet but it’s getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 How accurate is the SREF at this range? It’s latest running is brining more snow to the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Yeah cmc also showing a decent hit. Still would like to see it not so scattered morning runs should give us more of a good idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Yeah cmc also showing a decent hit. Still would like to see it not so scattered morning runs should give us more of a good idea... Yeah I’m still not getting excited about it. Both the 00z GFS and EURO ops are still saying no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 8 hours ago, RVASnowLover said: How accurate is the SREF at this range? It’s latest running is brining more snow to the area I wouldn’t put any stock in the SREFs honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 It’s been acting really weird. Something, nothing, something, nothing, back to something again. I’m cautiously excited though! Wish I had a zoomed in GEFS member 18 for 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Latest RGEM brings more snow to the area. No idea what’s going to happen Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownS.EasternVa Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 12z Nam.... Well I'll be god NAM'D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, DownS.EasternVa said: 12z Nam.... Well I'll be god NAM'D. Haha the NAM is an improvement but no way the system is going to dump close to a foot of snow. I like the trends however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownS.EasternVa Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 We have a knack to pull these unexpected events down in SeVa. Especially the one's that aren't harped on early on by local mets, I like the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Short range models are trending better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 RGEM and NAM 3k look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Would nice to get more then a dusting/car topper... Trending a little better lately on most of the models but here are the current predictions from NWS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 3 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said: Would nice to get more then a dusting/car topper... Trending a little better lately on most of the models but here are the current predictions from NWS Wakefield is usually very conservative when calling for snow here. It’s odd that the short range models want to bring us snow but the ops keep saying no. Well see which one is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 The 18z 3k NAM, at range, is about to wallop southern VA and metro richmond. The 00z run should be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: The 18z 3k NAM, at range, is about to wallop southern VA and metro richmond. The 00z run should be interesting. Agree. If it’s still showing that on the 00z run then I’ll start to get a little excited 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Radar looks a bit more amped and quicker than models at this point which should be a good sign for the trend to continue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Well the Nam crapped the bed on the 0z runs. VA pretty much shut out even at the NC border for south central. Solid run if your in Hampton roads towards Virginia Beach. Nice heavy dumping for a little on the tail end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: Well the Nam crapped the bed on the 0z runs. VA pretty much shut out even at the NC border for south central. Solid run if your in Hampton roads towards Virginia Beach. Nice heavy dumping for a little on the tail end Well onto the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 18 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Well onto the next one Eh, see what it’s like at 12z. Pretty big change with 0z on the whole northern half of the system. Hopefully a hiccup- RGEM running now so we’ll see if that follows suite too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Models backed off again a bit but damn the weather birds sure are chirping away this morning ... So something maybe coming.. hmmmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Not giving up yet, but it is disheartening to see Chesterfield county be the cutoff on some of the overnight models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Waiting to see what the 12z suite says before I give up. The 12z 3K NAM says no though, maybe a quick burst of snow. Seems like that once the precip reaches our area it just wants to fade away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Definitely gonna go from jackpot to almost nothing wherever this hits. Gonna sux watching all that moisture come right at us only to be eaten up by the mountains and dry air... Definitely gonna be a close one. For what its worth wakefield upped the percentage a tad for at least an inch in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 Radar still seems a lot more put together and larger areas of precipitation (especially north) than what models have been and continue to depicts. Will be interesting to see how long that northern half stays together as most have that gone by now or later afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 7, 2021 Share Posted January 7, 2021 3k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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