Inudaw Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Good luck South East Va. ^^ Not looking great for Richmond area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: ha ha I know its most likely Virga but a decent band was forming that's why I asked if anything was hitting the ground.... If we dont have anything by 7pm I dont expect us to get anything measurable . This system is moving quickly Agree. I'll give it until around 7. If it's not doing anything then, I will wave the white flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 and FWIW its there is a rain shower in Chester at the moment from that line.. Prob is getting the heavier precip up this far.... You can clearly see the line on radar right under Chester down toward Martinsville VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I do see that. FWIW, our friends in the SE forum look like they are getting concerned, mainly with temps. Temps are always an issue down there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 What interesting is seeing the back fill in from the ocean back into the southern VA area almost to us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, eaglesin2011 said: What interesting is seeing the back fill in from the ocean back into the southern VA area almost to us... I could be hallucinating but I actually like how the radar looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Sleet in Chester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: I could be hallucinating but I actually like how the radar looks. I actually don't see anything good on Radar from a Richmond Perspective. See good trends for the New Port news area but not this far north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 It’s going to slide painfully Southeast of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Well hopefully we can at least get a period of some snow. Something to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Yeah as I mentioned earlier the decent precip line is drifting even farther south... so unless we somehow get some backfill off the ocean that looks pretty doubtful now the way the storm is headed it looks like we will just get some pity snow flurries-/showers anywhere north of chester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Yeah I was definitely suffering from sleep deprivation and hallucinating earlier. Not looking good for RVA. Pity snow at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 The snow has begun in Norfolk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Well not gonna give up complete hope YET... Some filling in still going on .... Enjoy it in Norfolk should be a good one down there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Well not gonna give up complete hope YET... Some filling in still going on .... Enjoy it in Norfolk should be a good one down there... Every time it looks like it's trying to fill in, dry air eats away at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 well honestly nothing was to start here until after 3-4 pm anyway.. so we will see (of course It looks like the storm is moving a little faster then scheduled) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclogenesis Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 A look at ground observations to the South of Richmond tells me that Nam's thermal structure profile on Skew-T forecast soundings was overly optimistic about a shallower layer of above freezing temperatures, than has actually transpired, up to this time of 2 PM. Recall yesterday it showed an 814 ft depth about this time. However, Gfs back then, showed a much greater depth, up at 1,450 ft, which I took note of late last night, and Gfs appears to be the winner on that greater depth of above freezing temperatures. Depth needs to get *below* 1,200 ft. With this gridded data, using GFS this time, it shows the magic change-over to occur between 4 PM to 7 PM. Temperatures go from 0.4°C at that 1,450 ft layer, down to -2.1°, and the freezing level HEIGHT lowers quickly between 4 PM and 7 PM, at the same time moisture RAMPS UP from the 50%-tile UPWARDS to the 80%-tile. Not quite the saturation ideally needed, but it comes close at 80%-tile in those trouble-some, pesky lower layers that are currently ABOVE freezing and that are the DRY layers. So, based on this Skew-T sounding information, and the gridded data extracted that I highlight in yellow, should show things changing pretty quickly in those hours from 4 PM to 7 PM. By the way, the 975 mb layer that I highlight is shown as 431 M in GPH, translates to 1,450 ft (431 X 3.281) to get height in feet, for that layer. Visual included below. *** Edited to add: Also take notice in this visual below, that the RH, relative humidity, in the surrounding layers above & below the highlighted 975 mb layer go UPWARD as well in R.H. from the 52% to 61% at 1000 mb & 950 mb layers, -- at 4 PM --, going up to the 78% to 90% R.H. moisture, -- at 7 PM --, all while temperatures at those layers go to freezing, at 7 PM. The 12 hr. highlighted at the top, correlates to 7 PM, which is 12 hours away from the initialization time at 7 AM this morning. Have a see below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Such a painful radar to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclogenesis Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Feb. 20, 2020 320 PM Newest output on snowfall for Richmond: 12Z Gfs: 0.3" (3/10", with 1/10" coming between 1 AM and 4 AM) 06Z Gfs: 0.5" 12Z Nam: 0 (Recall this one had been previously forecasting between 4 inches to 5 inches) 18Z Nam: 0.4" 00Z ECMWF: 1.00" ( 1 inch) 12Z WRF: Trace (LESS than 1/10") 12Z H-Rap: 0 Just taking the last 1-2 iterations of these models, as I can't use the 16Z to 18Z H-rap as its already tainted showing snow in Richmond by early afternoon, then this averages out to be 0.3" (3/10") of snowfall for Richmond. This meshes between a compromise blend of the 2 writings I released yesterday. 1st writing for 1/10" to 2/10"; followed by a 2nd writing of between 1/2" to 1". So smoothing these 2 variations blends well, for 3/10". Notice above, that it's NOW ECMWF & CMC-RGem which is the HIGHEST-producing, lonely outliers showing the MOST snowfall for Richmond. Recall yesterday it was the NAM going way upward to 4" to 5". That all came to a screeching halt on this morning's 12Z output. It is interesting to take notice that the last 2 iterations of the ECMWF have shown 1" to 1.2" of snowfall, but it, along with CMC-Rgem are ALONE in producing amounts of 1" or over, with CMC-RGEM, at 1.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 trends getting better. even Ric may get an inch+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Looks like Chesterfield County could get in on some flurry action soon, according to my radar hallucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 anyone know where the line is now.. snowing in Chester now right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 heavy snow in Emporia on the VDOT cams. And in Williamsburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Looks like it's sticking to grassy areas in Emporia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 30 minutes ago, ldub23 said: trends getting better. even Ric may get an inch+ What TRENDS are that exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Green returns knocking on the Powhatan / Chesterfield county line door. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=AKQ-N0Q-1-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Flurries at best I think in RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, eaglesin2011 said: What TRENDS are that exactly? I don't think there will be any accumulating snow inside of the Richmond city limits. Closest might be Chester. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Oh well, can't say much about this winter. I might as well go in the main thread and watch Ji have a meltdown as Norfolk finishes with more snow than he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: What TRENDS are that exactly? HRRR and Nam. They both drastically increased amounts in se va and a little further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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