VABILLUPS1 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 12z Euro just went HAM - 6"+ for most of southside HR and NE NC but super sharp cut-off. Peninsula only 1-3" nothing for RIC but getting closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 hour ago, VABILLUPS1 said: 12z Euro just went HAM - 6"+ for most of southside HR and NE NC but super sharp cut-off. Peninsula only 1-3" nothing for RIC but getting closer. Yep. 980 low east if Hatteras,, 300 miles east. Starting to get real intersting. 7-9' for Oceana according to to Euro. Would be nice to see GFS shift further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 I'm tired of getting nothing but rain while 50/100 miles away gets smothered in snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 18z CMC jumps on board. Much higher QPF right on the coast - P-types not out yet but certainly a good bit of snow in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Snowing southern OBX (Buxton and Avon). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Hell is going to freeze over. The Buffalo Bills made the playoffs and NE NC and SE VA could get snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Bay effect flurries now happening in Virginia Beach. Also now that we are in range AKQ has a snow map for the Wed/Thurs event. http://www.weather.gov/akq/winter My zone forecast has taken any rain wording out for the event, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 From NCSNOW in the SE Forum: Just read a good mets opinion. Thinks jackpot is 6 to 12 between Raleigh and I 95. Mixing I 95 east. And we get screwed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 AKQ now says little to no snow accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Had nice bay effect snow showers this morning, it has managed to put down a nice dusting. About the Wed/Thu coastal, I'm trying not to get carried away. A few more steps west and it'll be a sleetfest for VB. AKQ still holding onto rain/snow mix until Thu 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 18 hours ago, tramadoc said: Hell is going to freeze over. The Buffalo Bills made the playoffs and NE NC and SE VA could get snow. Haha. True! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Snow becoming more and more likely for SE VA. Euro, CMC, GFS, RGEM and NAM all onboard. NAM has a very strange precip field considering position/strength of low and overall track. The others have significant snow 4+". I'm rooting for the Euro 6+! Could this become major? Synopically odd to see a winter storm generate in the Bahama region, move NNE and bring us major snow to SE VA though. It will be interesting to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, Suffolkweather said: Snow becoming more and more likely for SE VA. Euro, CMC, GFS, RGEM and NAM all onboard. NAM has a very strange precip field considering position/strength of low and overall track. The others have significant snow 4+". I'm rooting for the Euro 6+! Could this become major? Synopically odd to see a winter storm generate in the Bahama region, move NNE and bring us major snow to SE VA though. It will be interesting to watch. 16 minutes ago, Suffolkweather said: Snow becoming more and more likely for SE VA. Euro, CMC, GFS, RGEM and NAM all onboard. NAM has a very strange precip field considering position/strength of low and overall track. The others have significant snow 4+". I'm rooting for the Euro 6+! Could this become major? Synopically odd to see a winter storm generate in the Bahama region, move NNE and bring us major snow to SE VA though. It will be interesting to watch. Hope there are no mixing issues for SEVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 AKQ AFD...Latest 01/12Z models are into fairly good agreement with the pattern, though some notable differences persist. The ECWMF continues to be a little more aggressive at bringing deep moisture and therefore higher chances for pcpn to the local area while The GFS is slightly driest/farther offshore. The 12Z NAM had some peculiar secondary band NW of the main axis of precip along the coast (and was showing significant accumulating snow into the Piedmont). The 18Z NAM has genly gone away from this idea. Ultimately, will depend on how rapidly the northern stream and southern stream mid/upper level flow can phase, but its beginning to look as if at least SE 1/2 of the CWA will receive significant precip from late wed aftn/evening through Thu morning. Forecast is mainly a blend of the GFS/ECMWF which now brings a period of likely to Cat PoPs (60-80%) into NE NC and SE/eastern VA mainly by Wed evening, gradually shifting off to the NE as the sfc low further intensifies offshore wed night/Thu. Sfc dew pts and therefore very dry air looks to be hard to dislodge farther to the NW, so would anticipate a sharp cutoff in precipitation across NW 1/2 to 1/3 of CWA. Highs Wed mainly in the mid- upper 30s, possibly around 40 far SE. Critical thicknesses support all snow inland, to a changeover to rain or rain/snow mix along the SE coast Wed early evening before a change back to all snow. Mainly a 5th period event, so too early for a watch, but HWO mentions this potential storm and will continue to closely monitor trends on this system. First cut at snow accumulations favor highest amounts over interior NE NC/SE VA and the eastern shore (approximately ASJ to PHF to WAL). Most of this occurring from 00Z to 12Z Thu. Very little model guidance depicts higher snow amounts west of I-95 (even the ECMWF would support little to no snow amounts in the Piedmont). Lows Wed night mainly in the 20s, except upper teens NW. Drying from WSW to ENE on Thu , and will have high chc to likely PoPs until early aftn on the eastern shore, tapered to a dry fcst across SW/W 1/2 of the CWA. Windy and cold with highs mainly ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Gonna be right on the edge in HR metro. Key will be how long it takes for the changeover from rain or rain/snow mix to all snow. Certainly looks like a couple of inches at least but could be a lot more if that changeover occurs quick enough. Somewhere around N.News to Suffolk or Wakefield area is going to jackpot with 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 1, 2018 Share Posted January 1, 2018 Newest AKQ forecast package. I expect the stripe of maximum accumulations to slowly migrate NW if the trends continue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just watched Jeremy Wheeler on Wavy TV 10, he ran their in house model and said well it basically took the snow away after a brief mix, but said he doesn't think it's right. He seemed unsure of the forecast but went ultimately with 2 to 4 for SEVA with mixing in the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 hour ago, EverythingisEverything said: Just watched Jeremy Wheeler on Wavy TV 10, he ran their in house model and said well it basically took the snow away after a brief mix, but said he doesn't think it's right. He seemed unsure of the forecast but went ultimately with 2 to 4 for SEVA with mixing in the beginning. Yea, looked pretty pathetic here with nothing just west of the coast. He also showed gfs and euro accumulations and they werent much either. I guess he just decided to assume NWS was right to issue a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Be prepared for a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Wishcasting and NAM hugging has become insufferable in the SE forum lol AKQ issued Winter Storm Watches for the area. Current amounts are 3-5", which is reasonable. Looking good! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Wishcasting and NAM hugging has become insufferable in the SE forum lol AKQ issued Winter Storm Watches for the area. Current amounts are 3-5", which is reasonable. Looking good!Ugh... You're correct on all of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 All I read is how it's coming west... They want it to come west... They get snow more often than we do. I understand the wanting it to snow, but what they want is ridiculous. They want snow at the expense of everyone else from I-95 east to the coast. It's like they're rooting for us to get nothing but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 2, 2018 Author Share Posted January 2, 2018 Pretty good for another decent snowfall for Hampton Roads. The following is a list of snowfalls 4.0" or more since records began, beginning with the most recent. Looks like we'll be adding to this list. Norfolk Snowstorms 4" or more (since 1891) 5.3” January 7, 2017 5.5” February 26, 2015 8.5” January 28-29, 2014 14.2” December 25-26, 2010 6.5” January 30-31, 2010 5.0” December 26, 2004 7.7” January 2-3, 2002 4.7” January 25, 2000 7.1” February 3-4, 1996 6.2” January 6-8, 1996 9.0” February 24, 1989 15.4” February 17-19, 1989 4.4” January 7-8, 1988 5.2” February 5-6, 1984 13.7” March 1-2, 1980 6.5” February 9-10, 1980 12.4” February 6-7, 1980 4.0” January 31, 1980 5.3” January 5-6, 1980 7.0” February 18-19, 1979 5.1” February 7, 1979 6.2” February 2, 1978 7.5” March 25, 1974 9.1” January 8-9, 1973 4.2” March 26, 1971 5.1” February 9-10, 1967 4.2” January 19, 1967 4.8” January 29-30, 1966 9.4” January 26-27, 1966 5.4” January 30-31, 1965 5.2” January 16-17, 1965 6.3” February 26-27, 1963 4.2” January 28, 1962 4.0” March 1-2, 1960 11.4” December 11-12, 1958 4.1” January 14-15, 1957 5.3” January 19, 1955 4.7” January 11, 1955 12.4” February 10-11, 1948 5.8” January 31-February 1948 5.3” March 8, 1947 4.2” February 23, 1947 4.5” January 8-9, 1944 4.0” December 20, 1942 5.8” February 27-March 1, 1941 4.6” March 24-25, 1940 5.8” January 23-24, 1940 6.0” January 8, 1940 8.8” January 16, 1939 11.0” February 7, 1936 5.7” January 27, 1936 7.2” December 29-30, 1935 9.0” December 22-23, 1935 6.0” March 10, 1934 6.0” February 25, 1934 4.0” January 29-30, 1930 11.0” March 2, 1927 4.0” January 10-11, 1927 4.9” March 13, 1926 5.5” January 25, 1926 6.0” February 15, 1922 7.4” December 11-12, 1917 5.1” February 13-14, 1916 4.0” December 12, 1915 5.0” March 22, 1914 6.5” March 12, 1914 7.0” March 6, 1912 5.0” March 3-4, 1912 7.0” January 7-8, 1912 4.0” January 17-18, 1911 4.0” January 31-February 1, 1910 5.5” March 20-21, 1908 4.0” March 24, 1906 6.4” December 15-16, 1904 7.0” February 10-11, 1904 8.8” February 15-17, 1902 6.0” February 23-24, 1901 13.5” February 11-14, 1899 4.0” January 28-29, 1899 11.0” December 2-3, 1896 5.6” February 7-8, 1895 6.6” February 25-26, 1894 9.8” January 19, 1893 18.6” December 26-28, 1892 6.7” November 29, 1891 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Odds we get bumped up to a Blizzard Warning? Interesting we have a gale watch right off the coast. Really cant see another scenario of lower pressure, stronger winds or heavier precip than what is being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, VBsurf said: Odds we get bumped up to a Blizzard Warning? Interesting we have a gale watch right off the coast. Really cant see another scenario of lower pressure, stronger winds or heavier precip than what is being shown. I agree...Blizzard Warning possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 They might hold off on the blizzard warning up until tomorrow afternoon, but I believe it will be issued. Norfolk/Va Beach/Northampton county maybe? In the point and click forecast on the NWS page, it says 28-33 sustained with gusts up to 47 mph. I noticed mets are less conservative with the blizzard warning anyway since it doesn't really matter if obs don't exactly verify the warning. Not like anyone will notice if the winds gusted to 34 instead of 36 mph, or if the visibility was 1/3 mile instead of 1/4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 There is potential for Richmond to remain below freezing for up to 6 straight days. All depends on whether it goes above freezing later today. (AKQ has a 32F forecast) The next blast of cold will guarantee below freezing highs until at least Saturday or Sunday before a warm up begins. If this happens, it will be the longest subfreezing stretch since February 1996. It's not too uncommon to go 3 days in a row below freezing, but beyond that, it becomes increasingly hard to do. Most consecutive days highs 32F or below at Richmond 1. 12 days (January 23 - February 3, 1936) 2. 8 days (December 29, 1917 - January 5, 1918) and (January February 7-14, 1899) 3. 7 days (December 25-31, 1935) and (December 10-16, 1917) 4. 6 days (February 1-6, 1996 and 4 previous occurrences) 5. 5 days (January 6-10, 1988 and 4 previous occurrences) **Recently there were 4 days in a row February 12-15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 402 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 VAZ095-097-098-041200- /O.CON.KAKQ.BZ.W.0001.180104T0000Z-180104T1800Z/ Norfolk/Portsmouth-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach- 402 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very dangerous to impossible, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Tree branches could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches. A trace of ice is possible as well this evening in sleet and freezing rain. * WHERE...Norfolk/Portsmouth, Chesapeake and Virginia Beach Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant drifting of the snow is likely. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 12 hours ago, VBsurf said: Odds we get bumped up to a Blizzard Warning? Interesting we have a gale watch right off the coast. Really cant see another scenario of lower pressure, stronger winds or heavier precip than what is being shown. Congrats, looks awesome down your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 There it is, the blizzard warning. They upped the totals a little bit too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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