LP08 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: If we start as snow then there's a chance it keeps the atmosphere cold enough to stay as snow Will depend on the final low track no matter if you start as snow or not. I have a rooting interest down there as my sister lives just north of the city. GL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 There is a lot of warm air advection at mid levels. There's no closed 850 mb low to keep temperatures colder; the precipitation is basically one prolonged warm air advection event until Sunday afternoon when 850 mb winds turn northerly. This seems like a case where models would be more likely to under-do this warm air than over-do. I'd be hedging lower on the snow totals, higher on the ice/sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: There is a lot of warm air advection at mid levels. There's no closed 850 mb low to keep temperatures colder; the precipitation is basically one prolonged warm air advection event until Sunday afternoon when 850 mb winds turn northerly. This seems like a case where models would be more likely to under-do this warm air than over-do. I'd be hedging lower on the snow totals, higher on the ice/sleet. So I guess you’re not a big fan of the DT first call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshies Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Looks great but doesn't mean much given the aforementioned issues with mid-levels/mixing etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, Freshies said: Looks great but doesn't mean much given the aforementioned issues with mid-levels/mixing etc.... There a Kuchera for this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshies Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 No Kuchera for 18z/6z on weathermodels.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtogo Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Finally! AKQ woke up and matched the WSW for their northern and western zones, finally matching up with the other offices. It only was about an 8 hour delay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Early morning runs not doing us many favors.. Hopefully we can get lucky at the end with some wraparound moister... Could be a frustrating back&forth storm till the end stock up on some.. and don't jump off the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Might be more rain than we initially thought. NOt as much snow, ice favored, then goes to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Inudaw said: Might be more rain than we initially thought. NOt as much snow, ice favored, then goes to rain? I think an ice storm is very possible. Anyone have the ice numbers from latest NAM? Cuz 10:1 latest NAM is high but it ain’t snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just Rain doubtful in and around the RVA.. ice looking more and more likely for this area.. back end looks good for us but will it happen? Some models have dry air coming in between the event in this area so that could help limit the freezing rain/sleet and maybe change it to just rain if light enough.. Hard to know until the storm makes it over the mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, eaglesin2011 said: Just Rain doubtful .. ice looking more and more likely Stinks. Preparing for power outages. If anyone has good ice accumulation products let me no plz. From the models I mean. And no power during Eagles game!!! Noooooooo! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Still holding out hope that we can stay frozen. I would absolutely HATE for it to be just a cold rain at 33 degrees. On the 12k name, the 32 degree line runs right through RVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Wow, I hope that's wrong. .5 of ice would cause a TON of power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: Wow, I hope that's wrong. .5 of ice would cause a TON of power outages. 11 minutes ago, mikeeng92 said: Thanks. Not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Yeah I been worried about the ice for awhile now... history says sleet fest where I am ...But looking at the gulf moister back in the TN/KY border area it is really warming that area .Look how far north its changing the precip from snow to frz/rain .. http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USMO0453 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Honestly won't be surprised if we go to plain rain at this in the East end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Def a better solution then frz/rain .I still think a ice storm is a good bet around parts of this area tho.. hopefully to many people won't be caught of guard ...Still haven't seen the networks talking about it much yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshies Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 14 minutes ago, Inudaw said: Honestly won't be surprised if we go to plain rain at this in the East end. Agreed! That NAM ice prog is showing ice for areas like Goochland that were looking at 4-8! Hoping for a crusty inch and expecting less here in the city. At least this will shut up the DC weenies...didn’t realize how awful they are until I didn’t live there anymore lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Freshies said: Agreed! That NAM ice prog is showing ice for areas like Goochland that were looking at 4-8! Hoping for a crusty inch and expecting less here in the city. At least this will shut up the DC weenies...didn’t realize how awful they are until I didn’t live there anymore lol Don’t worry about them. They are to us SOME OF THEM, like some new Englanders are to them. Lol. We had 13-15” before calendar winter began on 12/9 lol. DC not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Def a better solution then frz/rain . Def still think a ice storm is a good bet around parts of this area tho.. hopefully to many people won't be caught of guard but still haven't seen the networks talking about it much yet Possible to see some snow then freezing rain then back to snow especially nw areas of 95. Ugh for frz rain. But yes east end may be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Yeah I have to Agree the ice storm line def looking to be moving more n/w.. The wrap around snow could go all the way into the VA beach areas if it develops at the end of the storm..... Def will be nteresting to see develop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshies Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Don’t worry about them. They are to us SOME OF THEM, like some new Englanders are to them. Lol. We had 13-15” before calendar winter began on 12/9 lol. DC not so much. Trust me...I know! I have been lurking on these boards since Eastern (under a different screen name). I recently created a new profile because my name was DC centric and I didn’t want to be judged here in RVA lol. We need to post more in this thread...using the main thread for RVA specific progs is no bueno. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Freshies said: Trust me...I know! I have been lurking on these boards since Eastern (under a different screen name). I recently created a new profile because my name was DC centric and I didn’t want to be judged here in RVA lol. We need to post more in this thread...using the main thread for RVA specific progs is no bueno. Yep. Folks here have been helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Crossing fingers we stay frozen longer. Ice storm is looking very real at this time. Have a hard time believing we see plain rain, south and east of Richmond yes. Hope we get a nice thumping before the changeover and maybe get some bands on the backside. Will be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 good luck guys. no one is playing with me in my sub sub-forum so I came to say hi and good luck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USVA0659&animate=true fist decent band that we may have a shot at.. hopefully sum in the area can get in on it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshies Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 most of the RVA area is such on the edge. .. prob time to stop showing the predicted maps and go with the nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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