SteveVa Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 00z Euro brings the goods. First wave(Dec 29) amplified and verbatim yields a nice snowstorm for both metro areas. Not gonna look at the clown snowfall map, but it should be 6-10" area wide. Second wave (Dec 31/Jan 1) is also not bad. another 6-10" north of the NC/VA border. Now if this was 40 hours out instead of 140 and 240... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I'm hoping to see a good snowfall. Haven't seen one since February 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 12z Euro...first wave bombs out off Ocean City, would be snow-rain-dryslot-back end flurries for Tidewater. Second wave looks better, seems like it will dig more at hr 180. Let's let it play out though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Need to reel this one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I'm staying up for the Euro again...this hobby makes me so unproductive in the winter 00z Canadian still looks good for the areas NW of the metro. It performed pretty good with the last event two weeks ago so I'll pay a bit more attention to it. 00z GFS went suppressed/flatter again for the first wave. I like that...keep it suppressed until 48-72 hrs out. What I really like about the upcoming pattern is that it's not a one shot deal. Cold is there and pac shortwaves are entering CONUS every 2-3 days. I firmly believe we're bound to get snow from at least one of them. EDIT: 00z Euro out to hr 126...flatter wave, looks good for a light event. I realized I don't have to do PBP because you can gauge the situation by the main MA thread. Usually we're happy when they aren't and vice versa - they're not happy about the Euro. Also, I take my words back...still snowing in Tidewater at 156. RIC metro gets fringed. This is it from me tonight, I won't ruin this nice run by waiting for the EPS to bring me back to reality lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 It seems to me that the trends aren't very good for those further to the north such as DC metro and Baltimore. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Yeah this is usually the time when the D.C. folk are complaining about not getting the big fantasy storm that was modeled "the week before" and start to give up all hope. For the Richmond area, I believe we are still in a good spot at this time.. I don't think we are going to get the 1,2 hit that was forecast earlier but the 2nd wave around the 29th is what we need to keep an eye out on and could turn out to be a decent snowfall for the area.. I rather have one decent hit then snow/sleet/rain/ snow anyways.. we shall see but definitely not time to give up yet.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I still feel like we're in a good spot despite the flattening/suppression on the models yesterday. We saw what happened with the Dec 9 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I hope so. All the guys in the SE thread are hoping for the low to ride the coast closer in so the western Piedmont and mountains get the bulk of it while we get nothing but rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coldrain Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, tramadoc said: I hope so. All the guys in the SE thread are hoping for the low to ride the coast closer in so the western Piedmont and mountains get the bulk of it while we get nothing but rain. I hope not. I can’t take another one like beginning of Dec where we got dumped on with 38° rain while the rest of VA had snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I hope not. I can’t take another one like beginning of Dec where we got dumped on with 38° rain while the rest of VA had snow. I said it before... The guys in SE are central to western NC centric. What they want to happen is always worse for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Gauging the somber attitudes in the SE forum, it looks like we are not going to get anything of consequence during this period of below normal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 hours ago, tramadoc said: Gauging the somber attitudes in the SE forum, it looks like we are not going to get anything of consequence during this period of below normal temperatures. It sounds bad, but when the attitudes are somber across the board it can mean we are still in the game. We're at the edge of both forums and usually what works for us doesn't work for anyone else. The Wednesday wave looks more amped on 18z runs of both the NAM and the RGEM. Euro is still hinting at some more development too. Coupled with decent early morning timing, I can definitely see that becoming a 1-3" event for NE NC and SE VA. Friday event is suppressed, but there. I believe we're still in a good place, and at this point I'd rather be hoping for a NW/more amplified trend than for the elusive SE trend. Edit: Frick off GFS, you won't sucker me in again. Shows a massive coastal Jan 1-2 that clobbers E NC and SE VA with a foot of powder. Then follows that up with lows approaching zero for the same area on Jan 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 25, 2017 Author Share Posted December 25, 2017 ORF's snowiest month occurred during the La Nina winter of 1988-89. http://www.13newsnow.com/news/local/counting-down-the-regions-top-five-snow-storms/382593325 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 It sounds bad, but when the attitudes are somber across the board it can mean we are still in the game. We're at the edge of both forums and usually what works for us doesn't work for anyone else. The Wednesday wave looks more amped on 18z runs of both the NAM and the RGEM. Euro is still hinting at some more development too. Coupled with decent early morning timing, I can definitely see that becoming a 1-3" event for NE NC and SE VA. Friday event is suppressed, but there. I believe we're still in a good place, and at this point I'd rather be hoping for a NW/more amplified trend than for the elusive SE trend. Edit: Frick off GFS, you won't sucker me in again. Shows a massive coastal Jan 1-2 that clobbers E NC and SE VA with a foot of powder. Then follows that up with lows approaching zero for the same area on Jan 3.I agree that since we are "in between" the SE and MA threads what works for us usually leaves them either getting a dusting or nothing at all. I get why they always love the NW trend and the lows closer to the coast. It throws more moisture back west and allows the western half of the state to pile up snow. The only problem is that when that happens, we get a cold rain. Personally, I want to see us get the snow and everyone else get shafted. That doesn't usually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 12ZNAM continuing to show around .2 precip for ORF tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 AKQ not impressed with tomorrow's system.A dampening shortwave trough will push across the Ohio Valley this evening, before sliding across the Carolinas on Wednesday. This feature will interact with the aforementioned cold front, spinning up a weak low/coastal front. 12z/26 NAM/CMC/ECMWF each are a bit wetter with the overrunning moisture, with the GFS lagging behind showing little or nothing. However, much of the deep moisture and lift remains just to our SE. Our official QPF has increased slightly over our SE sections, with precipitation expected in the mid to late morning timeframe across far NE NC and coastal SE VA, and pops have been increased to high end chc/likely during this midday time period. Thermal profiles aloft support light snow at the outset across the entire area. However, warmer air just aloft (H8-85) could allow for some light sleet/graupel mixing in before any mixed precipitation turns over to rain by late morning. PoWT grids do indicate a small chance of some freezing rain along (and mainly S) of the Albemarle sound, and accordingly some FZRA mention was considered. However, given very light QPF and the timing, we have stuck with frozen dominant P-type, and hence no winter wx headlines at this time. Should also note that precipitation could turn back to snow briefly by early afternoon in strong CAA before ending, again with little or no accumulation given relatively warm ground and light QPF. Farther N, highs should only rise into the low/mid 30s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Have also allowed for a period of flurries over northern tier, mainly north of a FVX-RIC-WAL line. Even in the dry airmass, northern stream shortwave, ongoing strong CAA and strong upper jetmax crossing could be enough to wring out a few light snow showers. HRRR has begun to catch on to this potential, for what it`s worth...so later shifts will be keeping an eye out for this potential early tomorrow morning. Measuring unlikely, so will hold pops out for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 44 minutes ago, tramadoc said: AKQ not impressed with tomorrow's system. In the short time I have lived in AKQ CWA, I noticed that they usually go pretty conservative. Smart play, since it will most likely be a minor impact event if it happens so it's easier to catch up with the forecast overnight if real time obs actually support the idea. Interesting that MHX issued WWA's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Dime sized flakes falling here about 5 miles SW of Elizabeth City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Temp has dropped 6 degrees since 730. It's currently 34.5 here at the house about 5 miles SW of Elizabeth City. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 NiCe!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Starting to stick. My daughter having fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Temperature is steadily falling. We're now down to 33.4 with moderate snow. Sticking to elevated surfaces and grassy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Down to 33.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Nice light event at KECG! Only saw a brief snow shower up here in Va Beach today. AKQ mentions the possibility for some Bay effect snow in VB and Norfolk, wouldn't surprise me due to strong northerly flow. Let's reel in 0.5" from the streamers lol 35/28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 22 degrees in Virginia Beach and flurries! There is a very light dusting so far, let's keep this Chesapeake bay streamer going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 28, 2017 Share Posted December 28, 2017 22 degrees in Virginia Beach and flurries! There is a very light dusting so far, let's keep this Chesapeake bay streamer going. We're getting the bay effect snows down here at KECG. Weird to see. Not enough down here to coat or dust, but enough to say we saw snow two straight days. 28 degrees at 1430 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suffolkweather Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Wed/Thur (Jan. 3/4)... may be a sneaky event . Some consistency on the Euro with 1-3" for SE VA last few runs. GFS is a little further SE on average. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Chesapeake Bay effect snow is possible again tonight into tomorrow morning. 850s should plummet close to -20 degrees celsius with some persistent N-NNW wind. Boundary layer will likely be too dry and prevent any accums, but I'll take mood flakes as the ball drops. EPS mean is about 2", which is not too bad but it's likely skewed by a couple of big dogs. 12z GFS is just coming out and did a slight jump west with both precip and SLP. Verbatim still a non event W of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 31, 2017 Share Posted December 31, 2017 Chesapeake Bay effect snow is possible again tonight into tomorrow morning. 850s should plummet close to -20 degrees celsius with some persistent N-NNW wind. Boundary layer will likely be too dry and prevent any accums, but I'll take mood flakes as the ball drops. EPS mean is about 2", which is not too bad but it's likely skewed by a couple of big dogs. 12z GFS is just coming out and did a slight jump west with both precip and SLP. Verbatim still a non event W of I-95. Which I'm okay with since west of I95 usually wins out while we get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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