RVASnowLover Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: It's been so cold, hard to believe it won't be cold enough for an all snow event. But then again, it's not even here, yet Possible the models don't have a good handle on the cold air. Models are known for downplaying CAD. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Possible the models don't have a good handle on the cold air. Models are known for downplaying CAD. We'll see. I remember reading earlier that cold air was not an issue and the long range models have a hard time seeing it. I'm pretty hopeful for 4-6+ in RVA. I wouldn't mind working from home on Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: I remember reading earlier that cold air was not an issue and the long range models have a hard time seeing it. I'm pretty hopeful for 4-6+ in RVA. I wouldn't mind working from home on Monday... def going to really depend on where the heavy bands set up. we could get lucky and not turn over and get blasted again.. .. or have a sleet/frz rain fest.. ha (gonna come in a few waves too) so maybe snow early then mix then snow again late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: def going to really depend on where the heavy bands set up. we could get lucky and not turn over and get blasted again.. .. or have a sleet/frz rain fest.. ha (gonna come in a few waves too) so maybe snow early then mix then snow again late Agree. I think the biggest reason why we didn't see a changeover in RVA with the December storm was that we saw heavy bands come through which kept the atmosphere cold enough. Need the same again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: Agree. I think the biggest reason why we didn't see a changeover in RVA with the December storm was that we saw heavy bands come through which kept the atmosphere cold enough. Need the same again. Going to be another classic nowcasting storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: Going to be another classic nowcasting storm Going to be interesting to see where that line is. Following short range models until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I'm prepared to be disappointed. Just hoping for a good period of snow on Saturday before we mix and ice up the joint. Going to hold onto a small sliver of hope that it's much colder than forecasted and we can hold onto the snow for as long as possible. This will actually be a fun one to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Never give up, never surrender! I can't let Ji have my snow! (stomps feet in tantrum) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CavalierHoo Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Any idea of timing on this system? I have to drive the family from Raleigh to Richmond on Saturday, leaving Raleigh around 1:30pm. Any thoughts? Thanks for your help!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 18Z NAM looks like an ice fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 21 minutes ago, CavalierHoo said: Any idea of timing on this system? I have to drive the family from Raleigh to Richmond on Saturday, leaving Raleigh around 1:30pm. Any thoughts? Thanks for your help!! Should be okay, Sunday morning seems to be the brunt. 2 minutes ago, RVASnowLover said: 18Z NAM looks like an ice fest. This isn't good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I still think we get a good front & end or back end thump that will give us most of the accumulating snow... Just hope it dosn't all get washed away and or turn into freezing rain for hours...I rather have hours of sleet.. Will be no fun to look at but at least it wouldn't do as much damage. I think the built up ice threat is still be underplayed a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, eaglesin2011 said: I still think we get a good front & end or back end thump that will give us most of the accumulating snow... Just hope it dosn't all get washed away and or turn into freezing rain for hours...I rather have hours of sleet.. Will be no fun to look at but at least it wouldn't do as much damage. There is a huge difference between sleet and an all out ice storm. Does anyone have any good ice accumulation model information? Trying to pass these concerns over to work leaders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 RGEM is better, not great but better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 @SteveVa Virginia Beach public works and VDOT we’re out brining the roads in Virginia Beach and Chesapeake this morning. I can’t speak for Suffolk, Norfolk, or the cities on the Peninsula (Hampton , Newport News, or Williamsburg) but it looks like they think they’re getting some wintry weather this weekend. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Don't know if it's right but GFS is A LOT better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Yea gfs was less ice more snow at 18z. :x 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtogo Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Can someone knock on the door of AKQ and wake them up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, wxtogo said: Can someone knock on the door of AKQ and wake them up? What are you referring to? There are watches up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dswx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, wxtogo said: Can someone knock on the door of AKQ and wake them up? Cheap shot. Considering that they are not even being paid, their last briefing an hour or so ago was spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Zach with CBS6 seems kind of bullish on snow totals but I hope he’s right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtogo Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 LWX is consistently better. I have a friend that works there and they are scratching their heads about why AKQ is reluctant to go to warnings in their western and northern areas, just like in December? Would certainly help to have alignment with Blacksburg and Sterling in these events and provide more consistency across the state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dswx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, wxtogo said: LWX is consistently better. I have a friend that works there and they are scratching their heads about why AKQ is reluctant to go to warnings in their western and northern areas, just like in December? Would certainly help to have alignment with Blacksburg and Sterling in these events and provide more consistency across the state? No, this sort of "LWX is consistently better" is absolutely pure crap. We've gone over this before and just like in December. For the second time, it is a completely different geography and neither LWX or RNK have to deal with warm air advection issues like AKQ does. Especially in complicated, classic rain/snow/ice patterns like this one. And I have known the AKQ people for a long time. If someone at LWX does not understand the difference between their CWA and AKQ's they really should not be working in the NWS at all as they have no clue at all about basic regional forecasting issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtogo Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, dswx said: No, this sort of "LWX is consistently better" is absolutely pure crap. We've gone over this before and just like in December. For the second time, it is a completely different geography and neither LWX or RNK have to deal with warm air advection issues like AKQ does. Especially in complicated, classic rain/snow/ice patterns like this one. And I have known the AKQ people for a long time. If someone at LWX does not understand the difference between their CWA and AKQ's they really should not be working in the NWS at all as they have no clue at all about basic regional forecasting issues. Sure? So climo for Louisa, Goochland, and Bowling Green dictates a WAA issue for this event or the December one for that matter? All I’m suggesting is that it may be time to realign geographiry to fit in better with the WAA issues AKQ deals with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dswx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Oh I am definite. " All I’m suggesting is that it may be time to realign geographiry to fit in better with the WAA issues AKQ deals with." Those were not what your words suggested at all. You said "LWX is consistently better". What part of the current Winter Storm Watch issued for Lousia, Goochland, etc. at 3:28 pm today is too complicated to comprehend with the event more than 24 hours away? And btw, perhaps LWX might want to realign their geography to fit in better with what AKQ deals with. The idea that LWX is consistently better is nothing but trash. I'm out of here precisely due to this sort of uninformed, cheap shot NWS office bashing since it is not the first time. That is not the same as discussing the synoptic pattern or models. And I speak as a professional (non-NWS) met. So long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, dswx said: Oh I am definite. " All I’m suggesting is that it may be time to realign geographiry to fit in better with the WAA issues AKQ deals with." Those were not what your words suggested at all. You said "LWX is consistently better". What part of the current Winter Storm Watch issued for Lousia, Goochland, etc. at 3:28 pm today is too complicated to comprehend with the event more than 24 hours away? And btw, perhaps LWX might want to realign their geography to fit in better with what AKQ deals with. The idea that LWX is consistently better is nothing but trash. I'm out of here precisely due to this sort of uninformed, cheap shot NWS office bashing since it is not the first time. That is not the same as discussing the synoptic pattern or models. And I speak as a professional (non-NWS) met. So long. I have no issue with what they’re doing so far with this storm AKQ. I don’t know the reason but December 9th was botched. There was lots of good guidance showing double digit snowfall totals, inside of 48 hours. Never pulled the trigger. Thankfully it was on a Sunday. On a workday it would have been a disaster on the roadways, with unprepared motorists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtogo Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I have no issue with what they’re doing so far with this storm AKQ. I don’t know the reason but December 9th was botched. There was lots of good guidance showing double digit snowfall totals, inside of 48 hours. Never pulled the trigger. Thankfully it was on a Sunday. On a workday it would have been a disaster on the roadways, with unprepared motorists. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RVASnowLover Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 18z EURO is wetter but no idea how much of it is snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Richmond view of the Euro start as snow then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Richmond view of the Euro start as snow then... If we start as snow then there's a chance it keeps the atmosphere cold enough to stay as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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