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Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion


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15 hours ago, JB Fins said:

12/9 shifted in our favor late as I recall, don't like being in the bullseye this far out...we have seen this movie too many times before.

Yeah def don't want much more of a north move here... Hopefully the cold air will be stronger then expected so we wont have to worry.. Today's runs are going to be interesting.  

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Eh.  Maybe I just don't want to believe it.  The models will bounce around a few more times before the final result is in.  Seems the models are handling the system in different ways.  Who knows which one is correct.

 

ETA:  I have ZERO weather background.  This is just what I gather from reading between the lines in the storm thread.:thumbsup:

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Just now, CavalierHoo said:

Eh.  Maybe I just don't want to believe it.  The models will bounce around a few more times before the final result is in.  Seems the models are handling the system in different ways.  Who knows which one is correct.

Euro has been consistent and was also for 12/9 but not til 72 hours out for that one. FV3 and then the short range models handled 12/9 well also. Once short range came into range.

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Just now, wasnow215 said:

Euro has been consistent and was also for 12/9 but not til 72 hours out for that one. FV3 and then the short range models handled 12/9 well also. Once short range came into range.

FV3 is running now. Barely. Might get the 18z GFS before the 12z FV3

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1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Euro has been consistent and was also for 12/9 but not til 72 hours out for that one. FV3 and then the short range models handled 12/9 well also. Once short range came into range.

I did edit my post with a HUGE caveat :P.  I let my love of deep snow cloud my judgement.

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It has gone dead silent in here. I'm  surprised more of you aren't chiming in....even if we don't receive allot of snow it still could turn into a pretty good ice storm in parts of the area. I personality believe out here in the West End we will get a 3-6 storm with maybe a little sleet/frz rain.

Error margin could be high both ways of course...

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Just now, eaglesin2011 said:

It has gone dead silent in here.. Kinda surprised even if we don't receive allot of snow it still could turn into a major ice storm in parts of the area...  Surprised more of you aren't chiming in... I personality believe out here in the West End we will get a 3-6 storm with maybe a little sleet/frz rain... Error margin could be high both ways of course...

I think it’s because there hasn’t been a lot of changes since we talked yesterday. The euro has been the most consistent but it seems like every run it takes off a little bit more QPF.  Last time the FV3 did really well and it’s pretty weak. GFS is good but it busted 12/9. CMC also. I agree with how you see it.

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Not looking too good for some of us.  Might be a situation where Short Pump gets 6"+ and southside/mechanicsville get 2" and some rain. 

The 06 FV3 has almost all of us with low amounts and lots of rain.  I'm going to hold on hope since last storm, the cold air was stronger than modeled.  Even Norfolk/Williamsburg got in on the action.  Hope the Rain/Snow line stays further east than depicted. 

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The new 6z Euro (not public; got it from a vendor) has ~4 inches on the mean ensemble for Richmond area at 10:1 ratio and ~3 inches on the operational at 10:1 (the later only goes out to 00z Monday). The operational 6z Euro goes out 90 hours and its ensemble out to 144 hours.

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27 minutes ago, dswx said:

The new 6z Euro (not public; got it from a vendor) has ~4 inches on the mean ensemble for Richmond area at 10:1 ratio and ~3 inches on the operational at 10:1 (the later only goes out to 00z Monday). The operational 6z Euro goes out 90 hours and its ensemble out to 144 hours.

Nice hopefully that's the case.. Is that with any icing on top?  you have a map?  keep us updated

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21 minutes ago, rmcwahoo said:

Can't really figure this storm out. And if you look at the local TV forecasts they can't either. I love NBC 12 right now: 4-6 inches, but maybe just an inch or hey 9-10 inches! That's called covering all your bases!

True! Better than ignoring the possibilities like they did heading into December 9. Not just NBC but many.

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28 minutes ago, rmcwahoo said:

Can't really figure this storm out. And if you look at the local TV forecasts they can't either. I love NBC 12 right now: 4-6 inches, but maybe just an inch or hey 9-10 inches! That's called covering all your bases!

Yeah.. Its going to be all about that pesky snow/mix/rain line...  I Have a feeling we will see all 3 for most parts of the area.. prob start as snow then mix then back to snow...    Whats the start/end time showing on most models? Another thing that could make a big  difference is when and how fast  the dry air pushes in .. Seems like it always finds a way to get into this area... 

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31 minutes ago, rmcwahoo said:

Can't really figure this storm out. And if you look at the local TV forecasts they can't either. I love NBC 12 right now: 4-6 inches, but maybe just an inch or hey 9-10 inches! That's called covering all your bases!

I truly wish more mets would present snowfall probabilities for each range like Freiden did this morning and Zach Daniel did last evening so people can hear/see what the chances are for various amounts and that it is not locked in at say 4-6 inches. That is how it should be presented. People hear just "4-6" without any caveats and run with it. Then when 2 or 8 occurs they yell "busted forecast!". smh
 

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