JB Fins Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Agree, I would take 4 - 5 inches in December and run! The question will be will the inevitable jog to the north occur early in the models or late, it always seems to. We get the congrats RIC, RIC in the bullseye, jackpot RIC, then it shifts and well, the rich get richer. Hoping for a solution that works for everybody. Let's see today if GFS starts creeping toward Euro solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I'm rooting for something that has a general 4-6" swath over Central and Northern VA. Rare to get something like that especially in early December as generally something good up here means its at the expense of RVA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coldrain Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Hoping to eek out something for SEVA but it’s a long shot this early in the game. We are most likely to be the ugly middle sister with 35° rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 GFS suppressed still. Nothing in Va. FV3 (2019 GFS replacement) a good hit for Southern Va. and 3-6” makes it into RVA. Euro starts soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 My first Winter in Midlothian. I was afraid I was a little too far South to see much snow, but if this things holds true, it may be better to be more South. I'm sure the bread and milk won't make it past Wednesday. Better stock up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 What a difference a shift of a few miles can make... ha Prob why 0-12' is almost always a good call for this area.. ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, eaglesin2011 said: What a difference a shift of a few miles can make... ha Prob why 0-12' is almost always a good call for this area.. ha True! AND solution will change at least a couple more times before final solution 6 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Agree...still a long ways out, the key is there is a storm, of that we are sure and can track. We know it's going to tick N at some point, will it tick W enough to get us in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I think east side will be lucky to break 1" of snow. Sure I think we will see are first flakes in the Metro... The exact amount remains to be seen. South West Va is where this storm is going to go to town at. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Get ready for a cold rain. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Crazy run. Lots of model runs left tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 22 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 18z crushed us. Yeah but it's only Monday... Not next Monday ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Yeah but it's only Monday... Not next Monday ;( Shucks! Yep, and as mentioned on the previous page, we are still fighting climo. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 So close to Hampton Roads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The new GFS is a great run for the Richmond area and NoVA. Would probably make this whole forum happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just watching the models this feels very December 2009 to me. We will ride the line for sure, but, as of this moment, it looks like we could be on the "right" side of it, ironically yes the left side of the S/R split in the RVA metro area. I remember 2009 was a classic too close to call storm up until the very last moment. And when it was hammering snow in Richmond that Friday night it was raining in the Tri-Cities. Accumulation map shows an incredible cut off. My house in west end of Richmond got a foot. Folks in Hopewell got maybe 3-4 inches on backside. Feels like a similar deal unfolding, with perhaps a little more cushion. I'd take that in a heartbeat of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Great storm rmcwahoo. I measured 11" out in Glen Allen. Absolutely puking snow that afternoon while playing Christmas music and wrapping presents. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 hours ago, NovaTarHeel said: The new GFS is a great run for the Richmond area and NoVA. Would probably make this whole forum happy. Parts of this forum aren't that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Some snow showers moving through. Might be able to see a few flakes in the Richmond area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 For expectation management going into this weekend, here the official December snowfall events at RIC going back to 1950. Amounts are generally less than 6 inches (6"+ in bold). The two earliest snowstorms delivering 6 inches or more occurred on November 6-7, 1953 (7.3") and December 11, 1958 (6.7"). December events exceeding 10" have only occurred twice since Richmond's snowfall observations began in 1897. Those were December 12-14, 1917 (10.4") and December 22-23, 1908 (17.2"). 3.1” December 8-9, 2017 4.3” December 25-26, 2010 2.0” December 16, 2010 1.1” December 13, 2010 0.6” December 4, 2010 7.4” December 18-19, 2009 4.4” December 5-6, 2005 1.3” December 19, 2004 5.0” December 4-5, 2002 1.2” December 26-27, 2000 1.0” December 19, 2000 0.2” December 29, 1997 1.0” December 27, 1997 1.0” December 19, 1996 1.5” December 7, 1995 4.1” December 28-29, 1993 0.1” December 25, 1993 0.9” December 23, 1993 0.8” December 19, 1989 5.0” December 12-13, 1989 5.9” December 8-9, 1989 1.8” December 9, 1988 1.3” December 20, 1985 1.8” December 19, 1982 6.1” December 12, 1982 1.1” December 25, 1981 0.1” December 22, 1981 0.7” December 15-16, 1981 0.2” December 27, 1980 1.7” December 8, 1976 0.7” December 21, 1973 4.3” December 16-17, 1973 4.4” December 11, 1973 0.7” December 31, 1970 0.2” December 25, 1970 1.8” December 25-26, 1969 2.8” December 7, 1968 0.2” December 31, 1967 5.4” December 22-23, 1967 3.2” December 28, 1966 8.8” December 23-24, 1966 0.3” December 13, 1966 0.4 December 18, 1963 4.3” December 25, 1962 3.6” December 21, 1962 0.1” December 11, 1962 0.1” December 9, 1962 0.2” December 28, 1961 0.4” December 24, 1961 0.3” December 9, 1961 1.7” December 12, 1960 1.2” December 19, 1959 5.8” December 14, 1958 6.7” December 11, 1958 0.8” December 11, 1957 2.1” December 4, 1957 2.2” December 5-6, 1954 0.7” December 10-11, 1950 So, climatologically speaking, big events are not as likely to happen in December. If a decent event doesn't pan out this weekend, hopefully, there will be other opportunities during more favorable times of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 RIC's first official snow of the 2018-19 season going on right now. Radar looks decent, may get up to a dusting in some spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclogenesis Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 A look at the overnight models coming in from Tuesday night, (00Z Wed.), shows the following for Richmond, VA today on Wednesday, December 5, for snowfall today: 00Z Nam; 10:1 ratio -->> 0.3" snowfall 00Z Nam; Kuchera -->>0.1" snowfall 00Z H-Rap, 10:1 ratio -->> 0.4" snowfall 00Z H-Rap, Kuchera -->> 0.2" snowfall 00Z Gfs 10:1 ratio -->> 0.3" snowfall 00Z Gfs Kuchera -->> 0.0" snowfall So a BLEND average of all projected amounts above, yields 0.22" of new snowfall for today. This is nearly 1/4" of snowfall. This amount is sufficient to cover tops of cars and blades of grass; also tops of fences & fence posts. Timing looks to be from early morning to early afternoon, for Richmond, VA area, spreading in from West to East. Forecast Skew-T soundings show that temperatures will be ABOVE freezing below 1,100 ft early Wed. morning, but BELOW FREEZING temperatures will reside from 1,100 ft on upward through the rest of the tropospheric depth. Thicknesses are within range to support all snow, with 1000-500 mb thickness to be 526 dm; well below the needed 540 dm line, on the 1000-500 mb thickness. Lower layer thickness between 1000mb - 850 mb also support columns for snow, with 1286 progged, below the benchmark snow criterion of 1300 m. -- cyclogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Yippie... Let it snow Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 How many times have we had snow in Richmond (say over 6 inches) and less then an inch in DC? I would assume it has not happened much.. anybody know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: How many times have we had snow in Richmond (say over 6 inches) and less then an inch in DC? I would assume it has not happened much.. anybody know? Last winter had multiple events when RIC was heavier than DCA and IAD. Final totals for the season: BWI: 15.4" DCA: 7.8" IAD: 11.9" RIC: 12.4" Our primary events for Henrico County were on 12/8/17, 1/4/18, 1/17/18, 3/12/18, and 3/21/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Gonna rain in Hampton Roads. Count on it. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Mulch turning white in Midlothian. Been coming down steady for about 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Shadowzone said: Last winter had multiple events when RIC was heavier than DCA and IAD. Final totals for the season: BWI: 15.4" DCA: 7.8" IAD: 11.9" RIC: 12.4" Our primary events for Henrico County were on 12/8/17, 1/4/18, 1/17/18, 3/12/18, and 3/21/18 Right .....but I asking for larger events that ended up being more then 5 inches and DC is less then an inch at the same time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It's been snowing off and on for about an hour in Norfolk with rain occasionally mixing in. Temperature went from 43.0 to 36.9 since 11am. We could have probably scored a coating had the timing been better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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