SteveVa Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 If the Tuesday storm misses DC this winter will really be the biggest tease in history. They probably had 100" of digital snow inside 7 days. I'm more interested in the follow up wave on Thur-Fri. EPS has a good signal for RIC metro into Hampton Roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I'm traveling out to Reno for work next Wednesday, but if this storm verifies in DC on Tues/Wed then my colleagues won't be able to make it out. Gonna be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Umm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 hours ago, SteveVa said: Umm... Like I said last night...piece of the action!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 18z gfs..ummmmm some more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 It CAN happen. Most recently, RIC got 4" on 3/24/2013. Look further back, there was a storm on 3/26/1971 that dumped 8.4". Also, on 3/25/1975, Norfolk received 7.5" of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Nope. You're not pulling me back in to track winter snow until November. Nope. Not gonna do it. Well... Maybe just this one time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Yep 2nd wave we have a shot .. I'd expect pretty much the same result as last storm as of now... For our area.. Maybe a little more on the main roads if we can get it in here at night .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 6 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said: Yep 2nd wave we have a shot .. I'd expect pretty much the same result as last storm as of now... For our area.. Maybe a little more on the main roads if we can get it in here at night .. Pretty much scenario I was thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 What's the timing on these events in our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 8 minutes ago, DJnVa said: What's the timing on these events in our area? It could changeover to snow in ORF early Wednesday AM at best. Potential for frozen precip could extend late into Wed night, keeping in mind that temps will likely be above 32 throughout the event. Still too early for more details. Rain starts Monday night, changeover to snow probably very late on Tue into early Wed for RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Thanks. I have travel plans on Wednesday--flying out west. The bigger issue is that colleagues are flying out of DC on Wednesday as well and that might be a bit iffy. Wondering when we should make a final decision--even if I can get out of here, they may not be able to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 How about that 0z 12k NAM...dumps like 1-2 feet of snow for SE VA. We take? One-tenth of that is my benchmark for this event. Yes, it's 10:1. Yes, it'll never happen. But holy crap this is crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Here are the Norfolk late March snowstorms from largest to smallest since 1891. 7.5” March 25, 1974 5.5” March 20-21, 1908 5.0” March 22, 1914, 4.6” March 24, 1940 4.2” March 26, 1971 4.0” March 24, 1906 3.3” March 27-28, 1947 2.5” March 20, 1914 2.0” March 24, 1896 1.5” March 23, 1934 1.0” March 30, 1964, March 17, 1893 0.3” March 20, 1934 0.1” March 29, 1941, March 26, 1894 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 @RIC Airport If I'm reading that correctly, accumulating snow in Norfolk hasn't been recorded past March 20th in the last 44 years? I doubt it snowed much in April. Edit: Nevermind, just checked the records...0.5" was measured on Apr 11, 1989. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Where the banding sets up & sits is going to make a big difference ...its def going to be hit & miss with this one.... Prob willl be allot of places that get almost nothing, then just a few miles away get walloped..(dry area always is the key around here also) and how fast that moves in.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 RVA snow predictions for tomorrow based on latest data (first time I’m doing this on here so go easy lol) Accumulation probabilities- 1/2” to 1” -95% chance 1-2”-75% chance 2-3”-65% chance 3-4-35% chance 4” or more 20% chance Places like Glen Allen, Goochland, Ashland, maybe even Mechanicsville best chances for the higher amounts. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Seems reasonable based on the model output I had seen in the main thread. It could be that some folks get on the higher end but the melting/compaction that occurs may lessen that total during the day Wednesday. Which leads me to an interesting thought that I will have to google...what is the official measurement for a snowstorm? For example, at RIC Airport, assume we have great snow rates during the night and hypothetically we get 4" of snow on the board and they check that measurement, if/when melting compaction occurs while it is still snowing and at the conclusion of the event is only 2", what is the accepted official total? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I was hoping we could hold onto the heavy precip from this first round a little longer but looks like its just going to miss out on most of the area..Temps prob will bounce back up again a degree or two for a bit....... Def going to be close with the 2nd system looks like its def could blow up and stall for a bit...where it does will be key...... Hopefully we can avoid the dry air and have the cold air in rush in faster then expected.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I don’t know how much of this is snow compared to sleet etc. but the euro model keeps trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dswx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, wasnow215 said: I don’t know how much of this is snow compared to sleet etc. but the euro model keeps trending south. That is a 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, dswx said: That is a 10:1 ratio. It’s the only one I have from the European model… But each run it has trended more snow here since two days ago. I got that from the snow depth model on Weather US. What is Kuchera from 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 18z GFS Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Could easily over preform here if we get the banding to set up right.. Then again dry air/mix could kill us.. . If we can get some good precip in here around the 3am timeframe that could make a big difference..Really won't know till the precip is just about over the area ...I'm at 35 degrees out here in Glen Allen at the moment so this def could go either way... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 hours ago, eaglesin2011 said: Could easily over preform here if we get the banding to set up right.. Then again dry air/mix could kill us.. . If we can get some good precip in here around the 3am timeframe that could make a big difference..Really won't know till the precip is just about over the area ...I'm at 35 degrees out here in Glen Allen at the moment so this def could go either way... Was 33 here when I pulled car in garage (only do that when there are PENDING snow events lol). NAM dry but GFS nice again at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 As luck would have it ...we are now in the screw zone to start off this storm, between the developing precip on the coast and the low wrapping around from the west... The storm is Def not orginized at all yet,..looks like we will be in and out of this zone for the next few hours with on and off light mix..Looks to me, it will be about the 7 am hour until we get out of this first lull... (West end Glen Allen) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Channel 12 forcast is a bit off ...they maybe right about totals but I doubt it turns to rain at 12 noon .. In all of the Richmond area... Unless we totally miss the low from the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dswx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 8z HRRR Kuchera (posted) has 1 inch for RIC. 6z NAM Kuchera has 3.5 (not posted) while IBM's Deep Thunder model has 3.9 (can't post; Deep Thunder is not Kuchera). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 At this point I don't think we need to look at the models... Still could be on the higher /lower end of the 1-3 prediction in most of the area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dswx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: At this point I don't think we need to look at the models... Yes. I was responding to wasnow215's question. My point was how the short-range HRRR was now notably lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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